CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by GGG

This is a bad idea in regular mafia as you ensure that only townies die. I've been bouncing around in my head if this is true as well here. I think it is and that even randomly lynching is better than a no lynch.



We have a 1/17 chance of lynching our agent. And a 3/17 chance of lynching scum and a 1/34 chance of lynching a turned. So good outcomes are over 3 times as likely as terrible outcomes.



Lynching a townie means the number of turned to win decrease by .5. Lynching a turned increases the number by 1.



So I think the question asked is does a 3/17 chance of lynching scum worth a 1/17 chance of lynching our agent and a .5 person reduction in the number of turned required.



I'm also not sure we gain anything by waiting. The only info we might gain by doing nothing is who the spore was passed to and that's only a 50% chance. And the person to act on that info is the agent not the town.



So I would say a no lynch plays into scum hands.

Aren't the numbers 3/17 for scum, 14/17 we lynch our own assuming our own didn't turn?

If we don't lynch our own guy and the infected doesn't turn, we stay with 14 guys. If we lynch our own guy and the infected turns, we have 12 guys.

I suppose we need to decide, as a group if we go for a pile on lynch or not.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by activeStick

If we don't get the 6 votes, does nobody get killed?

Thats right nobody gets killed.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Aren't the numbers 3/17 for scum, 14/17 we lynch our own assuming our own didn't turn?

If we don't lynch our own guy and the infected doesn't turn, we stay with 14 guys. If we lynch our own guy and the infected turns, we have 12 guys.

I suppose we need to decide, as a group if we go for a pile on lynch or not.

I considered that a consequence as a .5 decrease in the number of turned required for scum to win.

The big problem is by doing nothing we are in the same situation tomorrow. The agent will have a 50% chance of getting info. Day 3 we might have info from the agent.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Thats right nobody gets killed.

But there's a nearly 50% chance that someone gets turned. If nobody gets lynched today, what new information are we likely to have tomorrow that will improve things?

Realistically, the information that comes from vote patterns in a lynch are the surest way to win this game.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If you think I am so suspicious then please vote for me so we have a record of it down the line.

You keep saying I am participating but trying to steer the attention to anywhere but me. What does that even mean exactly? I have been giving my opinion on the game, and I have been giving my view on people. Isn't that putting the spotlight right on me, rather than coasting along in the background?

You know from playing before that if you sat in the background and did nothing it would be really suspicious given the past way you played the game. You should also know that at this point it is a crapshoot and my track record early in these games tends to suck. Take what you will from that.

[mrkajz44]

Just as a response to GGGs comments towards me:

1) I did not have any extra information on the spore thing - I was just speculating and ended up being correct. The fact that Maz posted a clarifying explanation shows that the information was ambiguous and needed to be cleared up

2) Just providing my thoughts on Diss getting frustrated with two votes early. Based on his posts I read him as town and he just had a moment of frustration, so I posted my opinion on him.

3) As for the vote on Party - I did mention in earlier posts that I would likely wait until Monday to vote as the weekend is typically slow and I wanted as much talk as possible before voting. You did mention the Party theory where he is newby scum first, and when I re-read Party's posts I tended to agree. I expanded that thought a little more with his response times and voted after that.

[Party Elephant]

I think post count is like corsi - a useful tool but doesn't tell the whole story. Obviously this game isn't as simple as laying low = scum, posting lots = town.

I still think GGG is scum. I reckon he's the 2014-15 Calgary Flames defying corsi. But my scum buddies have advised me to change to a more strategic and less hotheaded vote so

unvote
GGG

and

vote
GirlySports
It's a bit of a shame that by the time I'm home from work you guys are all asleep. I would like to be more involved in the back and forth posting during the day but the time difference makes that tricky. But I've got the day off tomorrow so lots more time to play mafia!

[SebC]

Jokes about being scum make it harder to nail actual slip-ups. It's noise.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You know from playing before that if you sat in the background and did nothing it would be really suspicious given the past way you played the game. You should also know that at this point it is a crapshoot and my track record early in these games tends to suck. Take what you will from that.

How am I sitting in the background exactly?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

How am I sitting in the background exactly?

I never said you were, I said you knew better.

[Hockeyguy15]

So today would be a really good day for some of you to start being a little more active, since we have the lynch deadline.

Since there isn't a lot of input going on I've been thinking that more than likely the hosts are sitting in their thread and talking, then here and there they will post in this thread. A passenger would be more likely to post here, hang out for a bit and possibly post again, since they don't have to conspire with 2 other people. If my theory is correct that would mean people with more sustained posts rather than one and done would more likely be town.

devo22 - has 2 posts 4 mins apart, but it was to add to his previous post, not replying to anyone else

Timbo - had a bit of a chunk of posts at the start but mostly is a one and done kind of poster

bizaro86 - one of the more sustained posters

squiggs96 - 2 posts close together, one was when he voted and then another post after that asking a question.

Puxlut - most sustained posts were when she was talking to Diss about his avatar.

GGG - This one was a bit of a surprise since he is more of a one and done poster. His shortest post period was questioning squiggs on his post about if it was a scum slip up.

Peanut - Had 2 posts a few minutes apart, but it's a small body of work.

activeStick - Had sustained posting asking about voting last night. Other than that not many posts.

Party Elephant - One and done.

SebC - Had a chunk of 4 posts in about 20 minutes replying to different people.

Lego Man - 3 one and done posts.

mrkajz44 - At the start there was 3 posts discussing the game, then later another 2 talking about Diss.

East Coast Flame - A couple sustained times, but there was a lot of question asking which sometimes is a scum tool.

Hockeyguy15 - Didn't look, you can do your own leg work here.

GirlySports - Possibly 1 sustained period at the start, then turns to one and done.

Oling_Roachinen - one of the more sustained posters.

dissentowner - not really sustained, closest posts were to say he would post more after work and to reply to a question about his avatar.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I never said you were, I said you knew better.

So I am not sitting in the background, but I am trying to put attention away from me and onto other people?

How do I go about putting attention off me and onto other people without putting attention on me? It seems like weird logic to me when I am one of the few people actually trying to do something right now.

[GirlySports]

so have we come up with a Day 2 strategy? We would have lynched somebody, someone may have gotten infected, the spore has been passed on and someone else may have gotten infected. Agent would have found info and smuggler hid someone.

If sporeholder from Day 1 was not infected, should he say so?

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

so have we come up with a Day 2 strategy? We would have lynched somebody, someone may have gotten infected, the spore has been passed on and someone else may have gotten infected. Agent would have found info and smuggler hid someone.

If sporeholder from Day 1 was not infected, should he say so?

I think it would be best if they told us if they weren't infected - also who they sent it to.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I think it would be best if they told us if they weren't infected - also who they sent it to.

Does the mafia knowing or not knowing who a non-infected person sent the spore to matter? Would like to keep them guessing.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by SebC

Jokes about being scum make it harder to nail actual slip-ups. It's noise.

I completely agree with this. We need more posts that are thoughtful analysis. Sarcasm isn't a useful tool here, it distracts from what you're actually trying to say.

[Lego Man]

I've been sitting on this comment for a few days.

I don't have anything actually worth posting in this game yet. It's literally, and I mean LITERALLY much ado about nothing so far. Like someone else mentioned before, it's hard to piece together useful information during the first day - even when looking though the posts after the game is over.

I've sat down and written paragraph-long responses numerous times, only to delete them because... what am I gonna do... accuse someone because they posted on on a minute ending with an odd number while everyone else that hour posted during even minutes? That's essentially the quality of information we have going for us now. Sample size is ridiculously small to draw even the simplest of conclusions.

So Hockeyguy15... what do you expect exactly? What are you trying to do exactly? Should I go back and look at the posting activity of Day -4? How am I supposed to even defend myself if I accuse someone? I voted for Girly, and everyone here knows it's for no good reason. Just a reason.

I wonder what the post count would be for some posters if you factored out them b*tching about other posters not posting. Seems like an easy way to hide in plain sight.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

so have we come up with a Day 2 strategy? We would have lynched somebody, someone may have gotten infected, the spore has been passed on and someone else may have gotten infected. Agent would have found info and smuggler hid someone.

If sporeholder from Day 1 was not infected, should he say so?

Well we haven't even really figured out what we are doing right now, so planning for day 2 seems kind of futile at the moment. The government agent should not come clean with their results tomorrow, there is no point yet. The smuggler needs to choose wisely as they can only hide each person once.

If the person who got the spore on night 0 wasn't turned then without a doubt they should tell us who they passed the spore to. There is still the possibility though that the hosts can use this claim in their favour as they know if the spore infected a person or not.

[Timbo]

Hockeyguy is right that we need to be more active. Inactivity benefits scum.
So I am sharing my theory that the Captain would choose to infect a known strong player. My list in order of strength(subjective) my and some of my musings
My Top 4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hockeyguy15 -Winner of last game strong player posts a lot. Meta game master

Oling_Roachinen Winner of last game posts a lot as well as strong on the attack It would be wise to have him on your side rather than an adversary.

dissentowner Also a proven strong player and usually is one of the last ones standing

GGG Often goes on the attack and has the ability to get a following. A pitbull

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The remaining

East Coast Flame Past mafia scum experience

Lego Man Has experience in a few mafia games and yet seems strangely posting low

activeStick Wondering about this player I need a bigger body of work to formulate a more informed opinion

squiggs96 Did not like getting lynched last game and has something to prove.

GirlySports Past mafia scum experience good counterpuncher I feel she often tries to change the thread direction

bizaro86 Im having a tough time reading him

mrkajz44 I am starting to get more and more suspicious of him (just a gut feeling) I suspect him as Captain but I do not have anything but a feeling to back up my claim

Timbo often makes posts that get himself killed

devo22 I don't really have much to go on

Puxlut plays the confused card

SebC I dunno

Party Elephant Newb Possibly drew the scum card

Peanut Newb really not contributing much hiding or just overwhelmed?

So if I were the Captain this would be the order of players I would try to infect first.
I am making a big assumption that the Captain did not go with the ennie meanie minnie mow method.
For now it is all I have to work with and it is quite possible that one of those in my top 4 were given the spore but not infected. I looked for sublet changes in playing style and I felt and I still feel dissentowner is playing differently.

[Timbo]

I meant subtle not sublet