CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Hockeyguy15]

There are only 3 hosts to be worried about, I'm not that concerned about the possible 1 infected yet. I think we should put the infected talk/planning on the back burner for now since there is 1 at the most currently. Losing because we all become infected would be death by 1000 cuts, we need to focus on taking out the hosts.

Right now the question is would one of the 3 hosts be trying to lead the charge out of the gate? I'm thinking that MAYBE 1 would be super active (probably not the captain) and the other 2 might be looking to stay in the bush and blend in.

[Hockeyguy15]

So I went back and looked at the thread from start to finish and here are some observations.

Bizaro and Oling start talking game theories right away, don't even have a throw away post. Throughout the thread they also talk directly to each other, so I highly doubt they are both hosts as it could connect them down the road.

Diss asked a few questions (3 I believe) in the thread, this may be something to watch as asking questions is a tool to steer talk away from topics the hosts don't want being talked about.

After Mazrim posts the explanation the only people who posted who didn't thank it were Lego, Timbo, Squiggs and the Elephant. This one is probably nothing but I thought I would note it anyway.

GGG dives right into the game, similar to Bizaro and Oling.

Elephant really only had throw away posts, could be they are just new but they could be trying to fly under the radar.

Timbo had a couple throw away posts, a little bit of game talk but I would expect more from him.

Squiggs is "here" but not here, maybe I am just bitter he was golfing.

Right now I am leaning to the safe play, and trying to aim for the hosts who are trying to coast along. I am weary so far of Diss, Timbo, Lego, and Elephant. Obviously I have nothing concrete, just mostly gut feeling from reading the flow of the thread.

[squiggs96]

Are there actually 3 hosts? There are 17 players in the game. 12 of us are vanilla passengers. 3 of you are passengers with special powers. That puts us at 15. Since there are only 2 people left, and one is the Captain, has either the 2nd in command or the Engineer not been created yet? Do one of the Hosts start off as a passenger and switch sides like the Turned? Is the initial list missing one person? Am I doing math wrong?

I see that the OP states there are 14 innocent passengers. Is one of the Agent, the Smuggler or the Anomaly not an innocent passenger?

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Are there actually 3 hosts? There are 17 players in the game. 12 of us are vanilla passengers. 3 of you are passengers with special powers. That puts us at 15. Since there are only 2 people left, and one is the Captain, has either the 2nd in command or the Engineer not been created yet? Do one of the Hosts start off as a passenger and switch sides like the Turned? Is the initial list missing one person? Am I doing math wrong?

I see that the OP states there are 14 innocent passengers. Is one of the Agent, the Smuggler or the Anomaly not an innocent passenger?

Interesting catch. The first post is clear there are 14 innocent and 3 hosts (paragraph 2 and 3 under game setup). So with 12 vanillas and 3 special powers, the math doesn't quite work. Either:

1) Mazrim made an error in how many vanillas there are (unlikely IMO)
2) Either the agent or the smuggler also has the genetic anomaly

Since the agent already has the double coin flip to turn, getting the anomaly as well seems like an overload. So maybe the Smuggler also has the anomaly because they are move likely to get the spore by hiding people?

[Hockeyguy15]

Maybe Mazrim may have just done some incorrect math?

I don't think anything funky happens, just 3 hosts and 3 passengers with abilities and the rest are vanilla.

[East Coast Flame]

Wow, lots to catch up on. Sorry I was away yesterday. I'll read up and try and contribute today

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

Why didn't you bother to mention this in any of your earlier posts?

I'm going to start here for now and see where it goes. Mainly I don't like how this started and it feels like someone is directing. Still also waiting to here from mrkajz as well.

vote bizaro86

I didn't accuse him because that's just spreading noise at the beginning of the game. I had a suspicion, and I was trying to draw him out.

I admit I was probably biased by his excellent play as mafia in the previous game, which I watched from the dead thread and was consistently impressed with.

Having finally caught up to what his plan is, I think its likely he's just ahead of everyone else on gameplay.

At this point, I think our best play is someone in the middle of the pack post wise. The mafia probably aren't going to be super aggressive off the front of the game, but they're probably not going to be the bottom posters either, having learned from the last few games how that's worked out. Most likely candidates are people in the middle of the pack post wise, where the posts are more deflections or not-meaningful, imo.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I think we should put the infected talk/planning on the back burner for now since there is 1 at the most currently.

While you're right that the Scum need to be our main goal, the spore is the Scum's main tool here. It's not about the turned, it's about the spore. Plans to mitigate it's effectiveness is still a direct focus against the Scum. Discussion on how we want to approach it should be encouraged, it's not like we have a ton of other stuff to go on right now.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I don't like killing (target) because the spore keeps returning to the captain which guarantees that he will give it to a passenger next. I think it's better to randomly keep passing the spore around. The spore-holder right now (even if already turned) doesn't know who the hosts are. We want the spore tonight to be passed to one of the 3 hosts, the person hidden by the smuggler, the genetic anomaly guy or even the government agent (two flips). The more Days that the spore lands on people that can't be infected the more numbers we hwill ave. Because the more people that are turned makes our winning condition harder and they can talk and not give the spore to each other.

Want to explain the logic here GirlySports? You don't like the idea of killing a possible spore-holder because that would give it to the Scum (delayed a day) but then really the best possible scenario of a spore-holder, outside of the Smuggler target, seems to be giving it to the Scum anyways so they still get it back under one of our "good" scenarios.

It's ~50/50 that the current spore-holder is turned. But assuming the current unaware holder is still a passenger, I suggest he targets who he/she thinks is most likely to be Scum.

On Day 2, the now-former spore holder should reveal who they targeted and make a case why that person. If we believe him/her, we should lynch the new spore-carrier. If we're correct, the target still has a chance of being Scum, a ~50/50 chance of being turned if not, and we would rid ourselves of the spore for that night.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Are there actually 3 hosts? There are 17 players in the game. 12 of us are vanilla passengers. 3 of you are passengers with special powers. That puts us at 15. Since there are only 2 people left, and one is the Captain, has either the 2nd in command or the Engineer not been created yet? Do one of the Hosts start off as a passenger and switch sides like the Turned? Is the initial list missing one person? Am I doing math wrong?

I see that the OP states there are 14 innocent passengers. Is one of the Agent, the Smuggler or the Anomaly not an innocent passenger?

Innocent slip or scum tell?

Though in the last three games when we jumped on something like this we have been wrong

[East Coast Flame]

I'm confused regarding the the line that says the Captain has to kill someone turned to get the spore back, or wait a day.

So if we catch the spore, wouldn't that be best case scenario today? As the captain would then either have to kill one of the other two scums or go a whole day without infecting anyone?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

While you're right that the Scum need to be our main goal, the spore is the Scum's main tool here. It's not about the turned, it's about the spore. Plans to mitigate it's effectiveness is still a direct focus against the Scum. Discussion on how we want to approach it should be encouraged, it's not like we have a ton of other stuff to go on right now.

At this point we have nothing to go on though, so the planning should be put on hold IMO. We don't know if there is 1 infected or 0 infected at the moment, and we won't have any idea who has the spore until tomorrow at the earliest.

Either.....
A) The person who got the spore night 0 was infected and passes the spore tonight to someone else...We won't know who the spore was passed to tomorrow.
B) The person who got the spore night 0 wasn't infected and passes the spore tonight to someone else...They tell us who they passed the spore to and we go from there.
C) Whoever was passed the spore on night 0 is lynched and it goes back to the Captain.

Those are the only 3 options right now, so until we know which one it is we are just wasting our efforts planning for X outcome when it could be Y.

[Peanut]

I thought this part of Girly's post made sense: The more Days that the spore lands on people that can't be infected the more numbers we will have.

We want to keep as many people "not turned" as possible, don't we?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I'm confused regarding the the line that says the Captain has to kill someone turned to get the spore back, or wait a day.

So if we catch the spore, wouldn't that be best case scenario today? As the captain would then either have to kill one of the other two scums or go a whole day without infecting anyone?

I don't believe the hosts count as infected. Infected only refers to passengers turned by the spore.

I think that if we lynched the spore carrier today then the Captain would have to wait a day for the spore to go back to them as they would have no infected to kill.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

Innocent slip or scum tell?

Though in the last three games when we jumped on something like this we have been wrong

Could squiggs also be saying he is a vanilla passenger though?

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I don't believe the hosts count as infected. Infected only refers to passengers turned by the spore.

I think that if we lynched the spore carrier today then the Captain would have to wait a day for the spore to go back to them as they would have no infected to kill.

Roger.

To clarify though, does the captain have the ability to kill an infected at any time? Or do they have to go through lynch?

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Could squiggs also be saying he is a vanilla passenger though?

Yeah that's how I read it. Aligning himself with vanilla. But then I immediately didn't believe him.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Could squiggs also be saying he is a vanilla passenger though?

Was just thinking that on a 'reread as he uses Us for the Vanilla.

Regardless of role dont allude to your role in anyway.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

There in lies the problem. The agent is basically our cop, we need to give him time to do some investigating before he outs himself and becomes an instant target for the scum.

In a more "regular" game, the mafia would just lynch the cop. But here, they don't get a night-kill, and won't have the spore most of the time. Even if they do have the spore and send it to the agent, they only have a 1/4 chance of getting him. Plus, a reveal would let the other passengers know not to target the agent with the spore.

I don't think the agent should reveal now, since he/she has no information, but I think earlier than otherwise might make sense under these circumstances. Probably day 3-4 instead of day 5-6 or something like that. It probably also makes sense to wait in case we see weird powers happening at night again. Although Mazrim said this game was semi-open, so I wouldn't expect too much craziness.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

After Mazrim posts the explanation the only people who posted who didn't thank it were Lego, Timbo, Squiggs and the Elephant. This one is probably nothing but I thought I would note it anyway.
.

I'd rather not turn this into "everyone better thank every explanation post Mazrim makes or they look suspicious." Better to just not thank any posts in this thread at that rate.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Maybe Mazrim may have just done some incorrect math?

I don't think anything funky happens, just 3 hosts and 3 passengers with abilities and the rest are vanilla.

Correct, 3 hosts, 3 special passengers, 11 vanilla, not 12. I've updated to first post to fix the error in the role descriptions.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

Innocent slip or scum tell?

Though in the last three games when we jumped on something like this we have been wrong

As correctly summized by others, I was stating that I had no special powers.

Originally Posted by GGG

Was just thinking that on a 'reread as he uses Us for the Vanilla.

Regardless of role dont allude to your role in anyway.

Why wouldn't I want to allude to my role? I seriously don't get what you are saying here.