CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I did mean you. What I was saying is that you had thanked the post after day 1 had started and we were able to post, but then you never posted (until now).

Ohhh I see. Well, I'm here! Just getting my bearings.

[Timbo]

GGG comes out of the start with shots! Very interesting.

So right now, someone has the spore, but may or may not know it? They would only know it if they turned? If they didn't turn, they won't know until after tonight (after we lynch someone?)

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So going forward if we get the spore and aren't infected we say the next day who we passed it to so the agent can investigate?

This is definately true however we need to be aware that there are several possibilities if that person doesn't die

- agent has been converted
- agent is the person who got the spore
- person is a host
- person is town.

[GirlySports]

Yes Puxlut, that's correct.

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I'm not sure killing the spore-carrier is an advantage for us because the spore would return to the captain who would then kill one of the turned to get the spore faster or wait a day. Either way the spore will go one of the passengers next.

Let'sset some scenarios. One of the 14 passengers currently has the spore right now (spore-holder). If he's been turned he knows he has it, otherwise he won't know til tonight.

Scenario 1) He's been turned.
a) his winning condition will have changed to win with the hosts
b) he will try not to get lynched, we lynch someone 3/17 it's one of the hosts
c) if we lynch sporeholder (1/17) it's a passenger and spore goes back to captain to use on night 2 (nobody has spore on day 2)
d) if spore-holder is not lynched, he passes the spore on on Night 1, 3/16 chance it lands on the host next, 13/16 on a passenger
e) if he tells us on Day 2 who he gave the spore to (target), he will be safe and we lynch the target. If the target is one of the hosts, great! If not, we lynch another passenger which gives us 3 hosts + 1 turned + 11 passengers.
f) then the captain may lynch the turned to get the spore back. then it's 3 hosts against 11 passengers and he gets to infect someone right away.

This is not good at all, way too risky and we could be in for a short game.

Scenario 2) He's has not been turned.
a) He doesn't know he has the spore so he acts normal until tonight.
b) We lynch someone 3/17 chance it's one of the hosts, 1/17 it's spore-holder
c) He will give the spore to target and on Day 2 tell us who target is.
d) We lynch target, chance that target is host 3/15, passenger 12/15, spore returns to captain, captain has no turned to kill so won't get spore until Night 3.

This scenario is not bad because no one will be turned on Day 2 but still some gamble because we may lynch one of the role players who the spore did not affect anyways.

I don't like killing (target) because the spore keeps returning to the captain which guarantees that he will give it to a passenger next. I think it's better to randomly keep passing the spore around. The spore-holder right now (even if already turned) doesn't know who the hosts are. We want the spore tonight to be passed to one of the 3 hosts, the person hidden by the smuggler, the genetic anomaly guy or even the government agent (two flips). The more Days that the spore lands on people that can't be infected the more numbers we hwill ave. Because the more people that are turned makes our winning condition harder and they can talk and not give the spore to each other.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Hmm. I was definitely pushing there, but only because I thought I figured out a way for the passengers to get a statistical advantage on the first day, and it seemed to me like Oling was intentionally obstructing that with tangents, which would have been consistent with his previous play as a mafia member. So I thought I had a pretty good plan laid out that had the potential to net us our first host member, or at least block the next spore.

As it turns out, my plan had a flaw in how I understood the game. I probably should have realized from past experience playing Mazrim led games that there wouldn't be a way to gain an advantage built right into the rules of the game.

All that being said, Olings counter proposal seems reasonable from the point of view of how he understood the game to work until corrected by hockeyguy, so I'd probably give him the benefit of the doubt. At least he is trying to get something going, which is key one the first day, imo. The other possibility is he and hockeyguy cooked it up in the scum thread, which seems less likely, as I doubt they'd come out so strong on day one.

Why didn't you bother to mention this in any of your earlier posts?

I'm going to start here for now and see where it goes. Mainly I don't like how this started and it feels like someone is directing. Still also waiting to here from mrkajz as well.

vote bizaro86

[mrkajz44]

GGG and Oiling - I was just being a bit cautious with the game. There were assumptions being made and I was concerned a plan would be made just a few hours into the game on assumptions that didn't hold true. It turns out my speculation was right that if the spore was given out and the person was not turned, they actually don't know until the first night.

We really have to watch assumptions being made, especially early. The clan thing really threw the game off the rails in the last game due to a lot of assumptions (or guesses) being made about them.

[dissentowner]

Haha, GGG is on the offense already.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Scenario 2) He's has not been turned.
a) He doesn't know he has the spore so he acts normal until tonight.
b) We lynch someone 3/17 chance it's one of the hosts, 1/17 it's spore-holder
c) He will give the spore to target and on Day 2 tell us who target is.
d) We lynch target, chance that target is host 3/15, passenger 12/15, spore returns to captain, captain has no turned to kill so won't get spore until Night 3.

This scenario is not bad because no one will be turned on Day 2 but still some gamble because we may lynch one of the role players who the spore did not affect anyways.

I don't like killing (target) because the spore keeps returning to the captain which guarantees that he will give it to a passenger next. I think it's better to randomly keep passing the spore around. The spore-holder right now (even if already turned) doesn't know who the hosts are. We want the spore tonight to be passed to one of the 3 hosts, the person hidden by the smuggler, the genetic anomaly guy or even the government agent (two flips). The more Days that the spore lands on people that can't be infected the more numbers we hwill ave. Because the more people that are turned makes our winning condition harder and they can talk and not give the spore to each other.

Under scenario 2, if the Revealer is indeed still passenger, we would still be lynching someone on Day 2 though. Target would have had a 12/15 chance of being a Passenger to start but is now ~50/50 of being turned without Smuggler interference. A 'random' lynch would be 13/16 they are passenger and Night 2 would still contain the spore with a good chance of it going to a passenger anyways.

A Target lynch would also allow Government Agent to check the Revealer. If he was the spore-carrier and lying about being a passenger, he dies. If he was scum and playing some mind games it does open us up to find the truth (i.e. someone getting spored but not turning on Night 2 would be proof the Revealer was scum). Much more importantly, if the Revealer was honest, we get rid of the spore for a night. The odds are still likely that it goes to at least one passenger between Night 2 and Night 3 if we don't get rid of it.

I don't think we should have a completely set plan going into the night and what happens the next day, because that opens us up for Scum traps on Smuggler etc.. But I do think taking out Target and hopefully ridding ourselves of the spore for a night would be a decent outcome if nothing else presented itself.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Also Girlysports, the Captain gets to communicate with the turned. What exactly he can say is not quite clear but he will still have input into who gets the spore, so it's not quite a random 3/16 chance of landing on a scum.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Also Girlysports, the Captain gets to communicate with the turned. What exactly he can say is not quite clear but he will still have input into who gets the spore, so it's not quite a random 3/16 chance of landing on a scum.

That's true, so it's even worse! Scenario 1 would kill us if target is a passenger. I don't think we can risk it.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I'm okay with bizaro86. His plan had merit from a Passenger's viewpoint but also would have guaranteed that a Passenger was lynched today if it worked. I just think that's too bold for the Host to do.

[GirlySports]

Oling, how would Government Agent reveal any information to us? Also remember he can't see scum.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Oling, how would Government Agent reveal any information to us? Also remember he can't see scum.

Each night, he can determine a player’s alignment and kill them if they are turned.

So, on Day 2 if there's Revealer (a person at least pretending to have the spore) and the Target (the apparent person holding the spore) on Night 2 the Government Agent should probably take a look at one of those people.

If we did lynch Target, that would only leave the Revealer as a pretty strong candidate to search. If the Revealer doesn't die that night, either he was telling the truth, he was scum lieing (which we would be able to tell if Night 2 we found out about a spore) or the Government Agent for some reason didn't check.

[GirlySports]

That makes sense, the part about killing the target and the spore returning to the captain scares me though. We'll see how the rest of the day goes.

Would we want the government agent to reveal himself? The last game we were too hasty in revealing special powers, no?

[SebC]

Hello people, checking in and catching up. If I'm in invisible, the aliens can't see me, right? (invisible mode)

[SebC]

While Mazrim has encouraged us to be active, I have another idea. What if, instead of maximizing the signal, we try to minimize the noise? That way, if the hosts want to stear the ship, they'll be easy to spot as they do it. In practical terms, what this means is that a late lynch with little hinting as to who it might be will either be less susceptible to mafia manipulations, or the manipulations would have to be obvious.

[SebC]

Oh just a heads up, I'm generally out Sunday noon-midnight and Monday 6pm-midnight, so will be inactive during those times. Hopefully this won't be too much of a liability.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Would we want the government agent to reveal himself? The last game we were too hasty in revealing special powers, no?

There in lies the problem. The agent is basically our cop, we need to give him time to do some investigating before he outs himself and becomes an instant target for the scum.