Playoff pace and controlling our own destiny

[polak]

I just want this nervous uncertainty to end!

[terminator]

Thanks Squiggs, those graphs are awesome.

WE are due for a win against the Minnesota crapstars.

[heep223]

Funny enough, I'm kind of worried about that Oilers game. Damn I wish playing the Blues wasn't an auto loss.

Originally Posted by polak

I just want this nervous uncertainty to end!

Not me. This is a dream come true.

[Igster]

Originally Posted by polak

I just want this nervous uncertainty to end!

No.

When the wife asks why you're drinking again, you simply point to the standings.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Igster

No.

When the wife asks why you're drinking again, you simply point to the standings.

My wife's never seen me in playoff mode. And here she thought that I had finally grown out of weekday drinking.

[squiggs96]

Last year the Flames won games 78-80. Since this year's team is better than last year's team, they should win games 78-82. That should put us in.

[indes]

Originally Posted by heep223

My wife's never seen me in playoff mode. And here she thought that I had finally grown out of weekday drinking.

Lol same here, had to keep it pretty tame last night though. There must be a correlation between the tightness of the standings and the amount of glare time I accrue in a night.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Since the last update the Flames have gone 1-0-2, picking up four points in three games. That's a 109 point pace, yet somehow many think the sky is falling. Including game 71 they are 2-0-2 in their last four. The red snake has been above the black snake for the last two games, and five games out of the last eight.

There are 8 games left and the Flames need 9 points in them to reach the 96 point mark. They are a combined 15-5-2 against the remaining eight opponents, which is a 119 point pace. To hit 96 points they'd need to go 4-3-1. I believe that's doable. If some of those wins are against the teams they are fighting for, 96 should be enough. If they continue to dominate Edmonton and Arizona, they need to go 2-3-1 in the other 6 games. If you gave me that option at the beginning of the year, I'd have taken it in a heartbeat.

@ Minnesota 0-1-1
@ Nashville 2-0-0
@ Dallas 0-1-1
@ St. Louis 0-2-0
@ Edmonton 4-0-0
vs Arizona 4-0-0
vs Los Angeles 3-1-0
@ Winnipeg 2-0-0

Let's make the playoffs. Go Flames Go!

My worry is this will be some sort of anomaly year where you'll need 98 points to make the playoffs because there's 9 teams playing at a high level then a drop off.

Minnesota has 91 points, needs to go only 3-4-1 to hit 98

Vancouver has 90 points, needs to go only 4-4 to hit 98

Winnipeg has 90 points, needs to go 4-3 to hit 98

LA has 88 points, needs to go 5-3 to hit 98

Calgary has 87 points, needs to go 5-2-1 to hit 98

All our opponents records to hit 98 seem pretty likely (even with the head to heads), unless one craps the bed the last 7-8 games. We have the biggest hill to climb, but our saving grace might be the tiebreaker between 96 and 98 points tied with someone.

If we get 97 and that be the one year ever it's not good enough, I might want to throw myself off the building.

[squiggs96]

After 77 games played the Flames are at 91 points and are currently on a 97 point pace. The red snake is 0.854 points above the black snake. It's finally happened. Calgary can finish the season at a .500 pace and hit 96 points. They could go 0-0-5 and hit 96 points. Being that two of those games are against Los Angeles and Winnipeg, I'm not sure that's the record they should go for.

With their remaining five games the Flames truly control their own destiny without relying on any outside help. First up is the road game on Thursday against St. Louis, a team that's beat us twice this year. Then we have four games where Calgary's record is 13-1-0 this year. Edmonton is starting to show their late season charge and are on a 123 point pace based on their last 8 games (5-1-2). They'd love to knock Calgary out of the race, but hopefully we continue our dominance against them. Arizona has continued to be bad all year. Calgary cannot take either of these teams lightly. After that is the final home game against LA and then the regular season finale in Winnipeg.

The Flames are 20 points above last season's numbers. This has been an exciting turnaround in year two of the rebuild. I really hope to see Calgary playing in the playoffs in a couple of weeks.

[Gaudfather]

Really interesting to see the consistent play of the Flames since about Game 42 this year - they have really been able to bear down for all of the second half of the season despite losing their leader.

[polak]

That 8 game skid sucks sucks sucks.

We'd be laughing right now if we just kept our normal pace.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by polak

That 8 game skid sucks sucks sucks.

We'd be laughing right now if we just kept our normal pace.

Plus losing all those must win games didn't help.

Do you mean that Calgary's normal pace is where they win all the games? RIght before the 8 game losing streak they were on a 120 point pace for the previous 17 games. Streaks are going to happen, especially in an 82 game season.

[polak]

They have actually won most of the games I called "must win".

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Plus losing all those must win games didn't help.

Do you mean that Calgary's normal pace is where they win all the games? RIght before the 8 game losing streak they were on a 120 point pace for the previous 17 games. Streaks are going to happen, especially in an 82 game season.

Or the ridiculous amount of times Flames scored with the goaltender pulled, or the 3-4 goal comebacks.
You hope, at the least, that the bad is balanced out by the good through the course of the season.
I think it has.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by polak

They have actually won most of the games I called "must win".

Even if they lost one "must win", they'd be out. I know this logic is lost on you.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

Really interesting to see the consistent play of the Flames since about Game 42 this year - they have really been able to bear down for all of the second half of the season despite losing their leader.

From game 43-77 the Flames have 46 points in 35 games, putting them at a 108 point pace. That's outstanding. Prior to that they had 45 points in 42 games, giving them an 88 point pace. I would have been happy with that number if it was an option before the season, given that we were mostly picked to be in the McDavid race.

Since Giordano has gone down the Flames have 21 points in 16 games (9-3-4), which is a 108 point pace. That has been especially pleasing to see for me. The defence has really stepped up in a tough spot. Sure they've had some bad games and plays, but after losing the team's captain, they've done extremely well considering the circumstances and pay cheques.

[polak]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Even if they lost one "must win", they'd be out. I know this logic is lost on you.

Fine, in your books you can claim that the Flames haven't had a must win game yet this season.

This argument between figurative and literal must win is so stupid.

Either way. Big, unexpected win coming on Thursday.

[AcGold]

The question is how do we break through St. Louis' defense. If they are clogging the neutral zone and standing us up on the blueline you'd think dump and chase would be a solution but they'll just lean on us in the corners.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by AcGold

The question is how do we break through St. Louis' defense. If they are clogging the neutral zone and standing us up on the blueline you'd think dump and chase would be a solution but they'll just lean on us in the corners.

Gotta get professional (i.e. Detroit) grade zone entries as a team.

[CGY12]

Are people really worried about that oilers game??? That teams won 4 of 5 for the 2nd time this season, the Flames have done that 9 times this season, and the flames have beaten the oilers every time we've played (outscoring them 17-8). If the Flames lose that game it won't be because of anything the oilers did right, it will be because they failed to show up.