12-08-2014, 04:08 PM
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#1
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Franchise Player
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Playoff pace and controlling our own destiny
Now that Flames, rather surprisingly, are competitive for a playoff spot at this point in the season, I think many of us are starting to nervously scoreboard watch at the teams behind us.
However, I got to thinking - it doesn't really matter what's going on around us, if the Flames reach a certain number of points and maintain a certain pace they'll make it. Some teams will fall, some will rise throughout the season, but at the end, you're pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs if you have at least 96 points. I scanned the last ten years, and 96 points in any year would get you into the playoffs in either conference. In 2010-11, the last playoff spot was Chicago with 97 points, Dallas had 95. It floats between about 90 and 96 points, averaging out to about 92 or 93 being adequate in any given year in the West.
So let's say the worst case scenario is needing 96 points. What kind of pace over 82 games is that, and where do the Flames sit up against that pace?
96 points requires about 1.171 pts per game. Currently the Flames have 36 points in 28 games - or 1.283 pts per game. On pace for about 105 points.
This is what it looks like in a rudimentary graph:
I'll continue to update throughout the season. I'm going to try and stop the scoreboard watch and just worry about how we're playing and doing against this pace. It takes enough years off my life worrying about the Flames winning, thinking about other teams losing is just a bit too much, especially when we hope to rely on the Oilers beating division opponents!
Edit: Here it is in basic table form at this point in the season too:
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Trust the snake.
Last edited by Bunk; 12-08-2014 at 04:22 PM.
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12-08-2014, 04:11 PM
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#2
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Winnipeg
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I'm in the same boat - I'm annoyed at myself for already worrying about it.
Just need to remember to enjoy the ride!
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12-08-2014, 04:17 PM
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#3
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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Do we have to cheer for Edmonton every night?
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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12-08-2014, 04:19 PM
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#4
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Like Sutter always said... 12 points every 10 games gets you in.
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12-20-2014, 11:26 PM
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#5
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Franchise Player
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Here's the rather grim update
About 4 points off pace currently. In the next 10 we'd have to go 8-2 or at 7-2-1 to be roughly back on guaranteed playoff pace.
__________________
Trust the snake.
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12-20-2014, 11:30 PM
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#7
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finger Cookin
Our slide started when you started this thread.
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Ha ha, yeah. Things were looking up back then. D'oh.
Even going 2-5-1 over that last 8 games would have us still on pace. This slide hurts.
__________________
Trust the snake.
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12-29-2014, 10:11 PM
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#9
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Franchise Player
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Moving quickly back to that line.
Edit: through 38 GP (LA)
__________________
Trust the snake.
Last edited by Bunk; 12-30-2014 at 01:22 PM.
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12-29-2014, 10:15 PM
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#10
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Franchise Player
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I don't know why my old mob pic got small so suddenly. Replaced it with an appropriate sized image conveying the mob anger.
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12-29-2014, 10:18 PM
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#11
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: So Long, Bannatyne
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
Moving quickly back to that line.
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I don't know much about fancy charts, but, so long as that blue snake keeps doing it with that red snake, I think we have a chance!
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Badgers Nose,
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Street Pharmacist
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12-30-2014, 01:17 PM
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#12
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Sydney, Australia
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This is a pretty fun stat thread; just for clarity sake though, when you provide an update could you just put a note in about what the last game was... I know we can look at the total GP, but it just makes it a tad easier to know what we're looking at 
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12-30-2014, 02:17 PM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
Moving quickly back to that line.
Edit: through 38 GP (LA)
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Probably a lot of extra work, but I wonder what Edmonton's "snake" looks like compared to ours. Probably fairly flaccid
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12-30-2014, 02:36 PM
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#14
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Section 203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Probably a lot of extra work, but I wonder what Edmonton's "snake" looks like compared to ours. Probably fairly flaccid
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My thanks equals mod team endorsement of your post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Jesus this site these days
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barnet Flame
He just seemed like a very nice person. I loved Squiggy.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dissentowner
I should probably stop posting at this point
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12-30-2014, 04:56 PM
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#15
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Franchise Player
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So if the Oilers win their next 26 games in a row, they'll be above the line!
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12-30-2014, 05:51 PM
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#17
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Probably a lot of extra work, but I wonder what Edmonton's "snake" looks like compared to ours. Probably fairly flaccid
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Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
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12-31-2014, 12:26 PM
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#18
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Probably a lot of extra work, but I wonder what Edmonton's "snake" looks like compared to ours. Probably fairly flaccid
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squiggs96
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It’s actually pretty steady they are just consistently that bad
__________________
"Win the Week"
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01-01-2015, 02:19 AM
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#19
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: at home
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Can you pls keep both "snakes" updated ?
It's the perfect time for an update after beating the oil.
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01-01-2015, 03:19 AM
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#20
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Lifetime Suspension
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Yes, I want to be updated on our snake at all times!
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