Sven Baertschi Did Not Request Trade From Flames?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I think looking at 10 years of draft data overcomes the strengths and weakness of any one particular year.
I agree with you that the Flames scouting has become good, even above average....but let's not get carried away about how valuable a pick at spot #50 is.

I don't understand what you mean. If this year is a very deep year then comparing the value of this pick to several years that were below average is a bad comparison. Overcoming the strengths and weakness of one particular year? That sentence makes no sense to me.

This draft sounds similar to the 2013 and 2003 drafts in terms of depth. So if anything we should comparing directly to those two years.

In 2003 you would have had a chance at Corey Crawford, David Backes, Jimmy Howard and Maxim Lapierre and would've just missed on Shea Weber, Matt Carle and Patrice Bergeron.

It is shortsighted to focus on just the 50th pick however because having as many 2nd and 3rds as we do this year allows us to move up and potentially grab a guy we really, really like and think shouldn't have fallen as far as he did. The more 2nd rounders you have the easier it is to move up in the 1st round, acquire an additional 1st rounder or move up in the 2nd round. All of which could get you a real impact NHLer. Trying to deduce all the odds of this happening with the flexibility Treliving and Button have in terms of trading up is an exercise in futility.

2013 is too recent to analyze.

Bottom line is that additional 2nd rounders have value beyond what you are suggesting. Treliving could trade the pick for an upcoming NHLer as Sutter did in trading 2nd rounders for Kiprusoff and Bourque. He also traded a 2nd for Marcus Nilson who was a key part of the cup run. Given how many 2nds and 3rds the Flames have this year we have amazing flexibility in terms of packaging picks to move up to get someone we had rated much higher.

Any simplistic analysis that does not take into account these additional possibilities isn't a fair one IMO.

[Red Menace]

I agree with you it probably is higher this year.
I guess I just think the odds of Sven becoming an impactful NHLer are higher than that 20% (or let's even call it 30% if you like)
And I don't want to talk about Sven anymore....but I do think it's an interesting conversation to discuss the value/expectations of draft picks.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I dunno, I just did a quick look, and from 2001 to 2010 I found about 30 good NHLers picked between spots 45 and 60.
That's 30 out of 150 draft picks....so 1/5 chance at a good NHLer....
If it was a higher 2nd rounder (like the one Kipper was traded for), I'd guess the odds would be better.

Well the Flames probably feel that Sven has a less than 1 in 5 chance of being a good NHLer. Personally I feel he has no chance, so I'm thrilled with the 1/5 chance of a new 2nd rounder.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by stemit14

...He's one of them and our hatred for him will begin to grow... Especially when they put him with the sedins.

Originally Posted by Hackey

The thought of them trying that is kind of scary but I'm pretty sure Vrbata has that spot locked down. Which would mean at best Sven is on the second line and that worries me a lot less.

Yeah, I would think it pretty unlikely that Baertschi would get much playing time on Vancouver's top line in the next couple of years. But even so, would he be a good fit there? Usually the third player on that line doesn't carry the puck, and Baertschi was pretty invisible this season without it—which happened a lot.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I agree with you it probably is higher this year.
I guess I just think the odds of Sven becoming an impactful NHLer are higher than that 20% (or let's even call it 30% if you like)...

So, even if I agreed with you (which I don't), I'm curious to know what the better alternative is in this situation.

Baertschi made it known that he would not re-sign with the Flames. What should they have done if not trade him?

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I don't understand what you mean. If this year is a very deep year then comparing the value of this pick to several years that were below average is a bad comparison. Overcoming the strengths and weakness of one particular year? That sentence makes no sense to me.

This draft sounds similar to the 2013 and 2003 drafts in terms of depth. So if anything we should comparing directly to those two years.

In 2003 you would have had a chance at Corey Crawford, David Backes, Jimmy Howard and Maxim Lapierre and would've just missed on Shea Weber, Matt Carle and Patrice Bergeron.

It is shortsighted to focus on just the 50th pick however because having as many 2nd and 3rds as we do this year allows us to move up and potentially grab a guy we really, really like and think shouldn't have fallen as far as he did. The more 2nd rounders you have the easier it is to move up in the 1st round, acquire an additional 1st rounder or move up in the 2nd round. All of which could get you a real impact NHLer. Trying to deduce all the odds of this happening with the flexibility Treliving and Button have in terms of trading up is an exercise in futility.

2013 is too recent to analyze.

Bottom line is that additional 2nd rounders have value beyond what you are suggesting. Treliving could trade the pick for an upcoming NHLer as Sutter did in trading 2nd rounders for Kiprusoff and Bourque. He also traded a 2nd for Marcus Nilson who was a key part of the cup run. Given how many 2nds and 3rds the Flames have this year we have amazing flexibility in terms of packaging picks to move up to get someone we had rated much higher.

Any simplistic analysis that does not take into account these additional possibilities isn't a fair one IMO.

Using 2003, the following impactful players were chosen between 45-60:
Crawford, C.
Bergeron, P.
Weber, S.
That's 3/15...again 20%
M.Carle, Lapierre, and Colin McDonald were also chosen....
You can add Carle and Lapierre as solid NHLers....that makes it 5/15....or 30%

[Jay Random]

There's a lot of subjectivity in deciding whether a player is ‘impactful’ or a ‘solid NHLer’ or what have you. That's why I like Schuckers' method of valuing picks by average NHL games played, which I mentioned upthread.

Incidentally, Shuckers' average value for the #50 pick exactly is 185 GP.

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, even if I agreed with you (which I don't), I'm curious to know what the better alternative is in this situation.

Baertschi made it known that he would not re-sign with the Flames. What should they have done if not trade him?

Well I think they should have played him in the first place and it wouldn't have got to that point. Once it had digressed, then yes perhaps they made the right move. But they were the ones who made it get to that point, so it's kind of hard to applaud them for degrading their own asset.
No more Sven talk.

[DionTheDman]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

True, but if I hear one more play on Sven's name like Svensational I may scream. It has infiltrated every thread.

That is a svensible reaction, for sure. Let's say anyone who breaches that rule is sventenced to svenven years in a Svenegalian prison.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Using 2003, the following impactful players were chosen between 45-60:
Crawford, C.
Bergeron, P.
Weber, S.
That's 3/15...again 20%
M.Carle, Lapierre, and Colin McDonald were also chosen....
You can add Carle and Lapierre as solid NHLers....that makes it 5/15....or 30%

From 2008–2012 the Flames have had 21 draft picks out of the first round. 10 have played NHL games. Three are already impact NHL players. Another six look like good bets to become NHL regulars or better.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by DionTheDman

That is a svensible reaction, for sure. Let's say anyone who breaches that rule is sventenced to svenven years in a Svenegalian prison.

NSFW!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Well I think they should have played him in the first place and it wouldn't have got to that point. Once it had digressed, then yes perhaps they made the right move. But they were the ones who made it get to that point, so it's kind of hard to applaud them for degrading their own asset.
No more Sven talk.

Too late for that.

You say they should have played him in the NHL in the first place, but this raises the question by what metric? Baertschi was hardly forcing the Flames hand by his level of play in the AHL, and was being outperformed by several other prospects this season. There was nothing about his play at either level this season that made him exceptional. In light of that, to Just "play him in the first place" would have been both undeserved, and completely out of line with the standard set for the team.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Using 2003, the following impactful players were chosen between 45-60:
Crawford, C.
Bergeron, P.
Weber, S.
That's 3/15...again 20%
M.Carle, Lapierre, and Colin McDonald were also chosen....
You can add Carle and Lapierre as solid NHLers....that makes it 5/15....or 30%

What are the chances that a top 15 pick in the 1st round (or 1st rounder in general) that doesn't make the NHL full time by the age of 23 going on the have a long and productive career?

I'll guess that it's not that much different than the chances of a 2nd round pick.

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

From 2008–2012 the Flames have had 21 draft picks out of the first round. 10 have played NHL games. Three are already impact NHL players. Another six look like good bets to become NHL regulars or better.

I count 27
10 have played at least 1 - 37%
8 have played more than 5 games - 30%
5 have played more than 20 - 18%
3 are impactful (Brodie, Gaudreau, Bouma?) - 11%


Who are the other 6? I'd say Gillies is 1

I think you are making my argument for me....

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I count 27
10 have played at least 1 - 37%
8 have played more than 5 games - 30%
5 have played more than 20 - 18%
3 are impactful (Brodie, Gaudreau, Bouma?) - 11%


Who are the other 6? I'd say Gillies is 1

I think you are making my argument for me....

Yeah, you're right about the total.

I also have Ferland, Arnold, Granlund, Ortio, Wotherspoon as likely NHLers.

In any event every single one of these players has either matched or outperformed Baertschi in Adirondack this year. Like I said earlier, Baertschi didn't get the playing time in Calgary mostly because of what was happening in the AHL.

[Red Menace]

All of those guys you mention are part of the 10 who have already played a game.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

All of those guys you mention are part of the 10 who have already played a game.

I think he meant 6 in addition to the 3 who are already impact players. Not 6 in addition to the 10.

[FAN]

Forget the odds. This is a deal that makes sense for both teams.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well it doesn't really matter if you were prepared to be patient because time had run out. Baertschi is waiver eligible next fall so you couldn't keep him in the minors any longer unless you wanted to lose him for nothing.

Last time I checked 2nd rounder >>>>>>> nothing.

Also Baertschi was refusing to re-sign with us so your level of patience is again irrelevant to the issue.

You appear to think I was engaged in some argument. I wasn't. I just wrote that it's frustrating that it wasn't possible to see through his development like some of these Detroit kids. The facts are what they are and I don't think the team has done anything wrong.

I think he would have done better if he had the attitude that he needs to patiently work on his game rather than worry about his situation all the time. My impression is that he wasted time by trying to find a quick way past that necessary work.

[MarkGio]

Sven is tearing it up in Utica. He has 5 goals and 5 assist in 9 games and by all accounts is playing well defensively