Playoff pace and controlling our own destiny

[polak]

All I see is every team we're competing with keeps winning. We can literally lose one game it can cost us the season at this point.

(Not saying we need to win every game, but we lose one, we wake up outside of the playoffs the next day and then there's the real possibility we never see a playoff spot again this season)

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by polak

All I see is every team we're competing with keeps winning. We can literally lose one game it can cost us the season at this point.

(Not saying we need to win every game, but we lose one, we wake up outside of the playoffs the next day and then there's the real possibility we never see a playoff spot again this season)

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by polak

All I see is every team we're competing with keeps winning. We can literally lose one game it can cost us the season at this point.

(Not saying we need to win every game, but we lose one, we wake up outside of the playoffs the next day and then there's the real possibility we never see a playoff spot again this season)

The point of this thread was more to stop focusing on what other teams were doing, and just track the progress of the Flames as they try and get to the 96 point mark. The theory being that if they hit 96 points, they will be in the playoffs.

Your over the top hyperbole on what constitutes a must win game continues to baffle. The Flames have lost several of your "must wins" and are still very much in contention. When you say they "literally lose one game it can cost us the season", that's patently false. When the Flames play tomorrow, I hope they win. If they don't, it literally hasn't cost them the season. It means they still have 15 games to try and get into the playoffs. If they win all 15 they would finish with 107 points. I'd wager any amount of money they'd get into the playoffs with 107 points. The one loss which "literally can cost them their season" would be a moot point.

It's unlikely the Flames will go 16-0 during the rest of the regular season. They will lose a few games. Until the math says "must win" or "literally one loss and they're out", let's tone it down a bit. When you say that literally one loss can cost them the season, and then say they don't need to win every game, it leads me to believe you don't know what literally means.

[GioforPM]

Pretty sure other teams think the Flames keep winning as well.

I haven't worked it out, but I imagine a winning % roughly equal to what they achieved on the road trip will get them there. And that is extremely doable. Remember, their current record is only as low as it is because of an 8 game pointless streak, which is very unlikely to be repeated.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by polak

All I see is every team we're competing with keeps winning.

Let's throw away Minnesota for a moment, as it's clear to me they'd have been a president's trophy front-runner if they had DeVezina Dubnyk all season instead of worse goaltending than the Oilers.

That still leaves three playoff spots:

#2 in the division
#3 in the division
#2 Wildcard

The Canucks have been neck-in-neck with us pretty much all season, maybe a game ahead of us at most points other than our big losing streak. But if we even tie them, chances are likely that we tie them in ROW too, so i'm pretty sure it'll come down to head-to-head matchups and awesomely enough we've got them beat in the season series (just barely).

The Jets are 3-2-2 in their last 7 and have just lost their best player. More importatnly, after an incredibly hot start, Hutchinson has fallen to sub-.900 goaltending since the all-star break.

The Kings are 2-3-1 in the last 6 but much more importantly they have to face the road again. But let's assume that since they're the Kings, they can somehow hang in there. They're still behind us in the standings and we have all the tiebreakers over them.

The Sharks are barely hanging on right now to the race at all.

That leaves the Flames, who like the Canucks have now survived through the tougher parts of their schedule and just need to take care of business. We also don't have to face the Sharks or Canucks again so that takes away unwanted 4 point swings. Our final two games are against the Kings and the Jets but way I see it, the pressure is on those teams to keep up with us to even let those games matter. They could be well eliminated by that point. And hey, if LA's out, we're in a division spot and not even worried about the Jets.

Forget all of the above though. The point of this thread is that if we hit 96 points, all history points to a playoff berth. And we're right on that line right now. And that pace genuinely has the Flames currently sitting in a playoff spot.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You're not wrong. Before that, the record for most points by a non-playoff team was set by the 1969-70 Habs, who were fifth in the East Division with 92 points. That was a special case. It was the last year in which all the Original Six teams were in the East Division, and all the expansion teams were in the West Division. Not a single team in the West had as good a record as Montreal that year.

Because of the weird circumstances, that record held up for many years.

Interesting.

Then the loser point came along and ruined everything haha.

2010-11 was the only year that 96 points would not have qualified for the playoffs.

[polak]

"Literally" one loss and they're out of a playoff spot and don't control their destiny.

If you haven't noticed, I refuse to believe in artifical goal posts. They need to keep pace with 9th. That's it.

"Only one time has 9th place had 96 points" can easily turn into two times considering the game hasn't changed since it happened only 3 seasons ago...

[Robbob]

Currently they are setting the pace, which is why we control our destiny. LA needs to win tonight to keep pace with us.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by polak

Literally one loss and they're out of a playoff spot and don't control their destiny.

If you haven't noticed, I refuse to believe in artifical goal posts. They need to keep pace. That's it.

Literally one loss and they still control their destiny. They could lose their next four games and still get 101 points. That would be enough to get in the playoffs. Literally. Yes, the 8 game losing streak sucked, but those 8 losses didn't eliminate them from the playoffs. To say any team is going to finish the season undefeated is foolish. Right now the Flames don't need any help from any other teams, although it would be nice. If they continue to take care of business, they will be fine. A win or loss tomorrow doesn't change any of that.

I have no idea what you refusing to believe in artificial goal posts means. A team is not eliminated because they fall below the pace line in the same realm that they are not into the playoffs simply because they are above the line at the 66 games played mark. If the Flames win the next two games, and then lose the one after that they are still above the pace. How is that any different than losing tomorrow and winning the next two?

[polak]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Currently they are setting the pace, which is why we control our destiny. LA needs to win tonight to keep pace with us.

I know. That's why one loss for us and one win for LA and we no longer control it.

Regardless of what imaginery number you pick, if we're in 9th, we are the mercy of the OOT scoreboard until we get back into a playoff spot.

[Red Menace]

Not true, almost every team controls their own destiny, if teams win out it will necessitate others losing and not gaining full pts.
I'm sure 11 or even 12 teams in the west still "control" their own destiny....which really is a meaningless title until the final week or so of the season.

[Nme-Territory]

Originally Posted by polak

"Literally" one loss and they're out of a playoff spot and don't control their destiny.

If you haven't noticed, I refuse to believe in artifical goal posts. They need to keep pace with 9th. That's it.

"Only one time has 9th place had 96 points" can easily turn into two times considering the game hasn't changed since it happened only 3 seasons ago...

The definition of dense...

Figuratively.

The point everyone is trying to make is that it's the total number of wins that matters, not the distribution of the wins. Losses are going to happen, but it's not the timing of the losses that matters, it's the total number of losses in a season.

Teams set goals that have little or nothing to do with "keeping pace" with other teams. Teams set goals related to regular season point totals. If a team gets into scoreboard watching and hoping for other teams to lose, they develop an external locus of control. The point of this thread is that if the Flames accrue enough wins, it doesn't matter what the other teams do.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by polak

I know. That's why one loss for us and one win for LA and we no longer control it.

Regardless of what imaginery number you pick, if we're in 9th, we are the mercy of the OOT scoreboard until we get back into a playoff spot.

So are you saying if Calgary loses tomorrow and let's suppose LA wins tonight, it is possible that Calgary can win the remaining 15 games and not make the playoffs? Keep in mind Calgary has more ROW than LA, so even if LA wins tomorrow, Calgary still holds the spot over them. Calgary also has games against Minnesota, LA, and Winnipeg, so they still hold control in their own hands.

I've ran a few scenarios, and if Calgary has 107 points the only one I can find where they don't get in is if LA goes 16-0-1 (OTL to CGY), Vancouver goes 12-0-4 (3 OTLs to LA & 1 to Winnipeg), Anaheim goes 8-5-1 (losses to specific teams), Minnesota goes 13-0-3 and Winnipeg goes 12-0-4 (OTLs to specific games). Based on the above, I'd say Calgary very much still controls their own destiny. They don't need help from out of town as of now. Asking for the above scenarios is ridiculous.

[polak]

Just because I don't subscribe to your brand of logic doesn't mean I don't understand it. I get that we're truely in control of our destiny until were at the point that regardless of what we do, we need other teams to beat specific teams ahead of us to make the playoffs.

My logic is that instead of picking random numbers based on history, we just stay out of 9th place. That's the safest and most effective way of controlling our destiny. You think it's frustrating watching the OOT now? Imagine being in LA's shoes. They probably also have a thread tracking how close they are to 94 or 96 points. They're also probably telling themselves "We only need to win 10." Every team in the race is saying something to that effect and every team keeps watching the OOT scoreboard and keeps seeing the worst possible outcomes happening more often then not.

LITEREALLY if they lose one game and the Kings win one game, the Kings will tie us. If that happens again they will LITERALLY pass us in the standings. Once that occurs, we are at the mercy of the teams ahead of us. It LITERALLY doesn't matter if we win 11 games if the teams in the race ahead of us win 12. I don't care if that's never happened. Before 2011, people would have been saying "if we get 96 points, we'll be safe, no team has EVER got 96 points and not made they playoffs".

Some where out there, I'm sure someone has found the maximum possible points for each team in the race based on different scenarios for the head to head match ups. The maximum number of points that can be achieved by the 10th and 9th place teams is your real goal post.

[rubecube]

Guys, leave him alone. He has a degree in business. I'm sure he knows what literally means.

[Igster]

Maybe, but he can't spell it.

Originally Posted by polak

LITEREALLY if they lose one game and the Kings win one game, the Kings will tie us. If that happens again they will LITERALLY pass us in the standings. Once that occurs, we are at the mercy of the teams ahead of us. It LITERALLY doesn't matter if we win 11 games if the teams in the race ahead of us win 12. I don't care if that's never happened. Before 2011, people would have been saying "if we get 96 points, we'll be safe, no team has EVER got 96 points and not made they playoffs".

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by polak

Just because I don't subscribe to your brand of logic doesn't mean I don't understand it. I get that we're truely in control of our destiny until were at the point that regardless of what we do, we need other teams to beat specific teams ahead of us to make the playoffs.

My logic is that instead of picking random numbers based on history, we just stay out of 9th place. That's the safest and most effective way of controlling our destiny. You think it's frustrating watching the OOT now? Imagine being in LA's shoes. They probably also have a thread tracking how close they are to 94 or 96 points. They're also probably telling themselves "We only need to win 10." Every team in the race is saying something to that effect and every team keeps watching the OOT scoreboard and keeps seeing the worst possible outcomes happening more often then not.

LITEREALLY if they lose one game and the Kings win one game, the Kings will tie us. If that happens again they will LITERALLY pass us in the standings. Once that occurs, we are at the mercy of the teams ahead of us. It LITERALLY doesn't matter if we win 11 games if the teams in the race ahead of us win 12. I don't care if that's never happened. Before 2011, people would have been saying "if we get 96 points, we'll be safe, no team has EVER got 96 points and not made they playoffs".

Some where out there, I'm sure someone has found the maximum possible points for each team in the race based on different scenarios for the head to head match ups. The maximum number of points that can be achieved by the 10th and 9th place teams is your real goal post.

You literally can't even spell literally correctly.

For most of the thread I have been discussing the 96 point plateau. The discussion today hasn't revolved around that. I understand that if Calgary loses and LA wins they are ahead of us.What I'm saying is if that happens, Calgary can still control their final fate based on the fact they play these teams. If they didn't play these teams and/or the teams didn't play each other you'd have a small point. Because this isn't the case, you don't.

Simple scenario for you: Calgary loses the next game and LA wins the next game. Calgary is behind LA in the standings. Calgary wins their remaining games. How do they need any help if they win out? You mentioned if Calgary wins 11 and someone wins 12 they are still ahead. I understand that. How does Calgary not finish in the playoffs if they win their remaining games, especially when they play the teams that are in front of them? Specifically they play LA. Since they would be tied in points and if Calgary won the final game (controlling their destiny) they get in. That has nothing to do with 96 points.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Guys, leave him alone. He has a degree in business. I'm sure he knows what literally means.

He's a Phoenix.

[polak]

Haha that's true. I was typing that as I was leaving for lunch. Now lunch plans got cancelled and I'm ready to fight this argument until death (or 1 pm-ish actually)

[Red Menace]

So all you're really saying is it's good to stay in the top 8.
Ok, thanks.