[News] With the 54th overall pick the Flames select RW Hunter Smith

[Fire]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The fact that there aren't any 6'7"+ forwards who make an impact being anything but goons is the proof, at least as it stands today.



Well, the argument isn't about someone who is 6'4, it's 6'7.

I'm just playing devils advocate here, and am in no way saying that like...6'6.5" is the cut-off where the hockey gods no longer allow players to be good, just stating that there aren't any.

What percentage of people in NA are 6'7 and how many are 6'2 or 6'4? There is a big reason you don't see that many really tall players in the NHL, because there isn't many really tall people period.

[SinceDay1]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

How does that at all provide proof that me assertion is wasted?

Look at all the starting goaltenders in the NHL right now. How many of them were selected in the first two rounds relative to rounds three and beyond?

I checked. There are currently 33 goalies in a role as starter or 1A/1B. 10 were chosen in the 1st round, 3 in the 2nd and 6 in the 3rd. 39% in the first 2 rounds. 75% if you include the 3rd. 1/3 of all NHL teams found their current starter in the first round. 5 of the top 10 leaders in GAA are 1st or 2nd rounders. SV%: 4 of 10. Wins: 3 of 10. Shutouts: 4 of 10.

There is a significant value in using a high pick on a goaltender if you ask me.

[GioforPM]

That's a way higher % of successful high goalie picks than I thought would be the case. Man the Flames have sucked at it.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

You're going to have to find a post of mine where I said that.

How about 115 penalty minutes this season? 100 last season?

Sam Bennett had 118 last season.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Sam Bennett had 118 last season.

To be fair, Sam's totally a goon

[FakenHaken]

Originally Posted by SinceDay1

I checked. There are currently 33 goalies in a role as starter or 1A/1B. 10 were chosen in the 1st round, 3 in the 2nd and 6 in the 3rd. 39% in the first 2 rounds. 75% if you include the 3rd. 1/3 of all NHL teams found their current starter in the first round. 5 of the top 10 leaders in GAA are 1st or 2nd rounders. SV%: 4 of 10. Wins: 3 of 10. Shutouts: 4 of 10.

There is a significant value in using a high pick on a goaltender if you ask me.

The one notable goalie chosen in first round will likely win the Hart and Vezina this year.

I know it seems like cherry picking. I'm actually very happy with our drafting. It seems to be working through the process that is more important. Are we going to miss on first rounders and second rounders from time to time; you bet we will. Will we magically hit on a fourth rounder from time to time; sure we will. What matters though is the process and the the work that goes into it. If you work the process you will have a high batting average. Yes, if a Carey Price type goalie becomes available to you in the first round and your scouts have ranked him BPA you better draft him. Draft BPA and last I checked the goalie is also a player on the team. You can't pigeon hole yourself because when you do, it seems like you end up with a bunch of barn painters and we are cheering for the Young Guns again.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

To be fair, Sam's totally a goon

Yea, not a good example, haha. Slew footing majors, roughing, fighting, slashing..

The kid is kind of a turd, and I'm real glad he's a member of the Flames.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by codynw

Yea, not a good example, haha. Slew footing majors, roughing, fighting, slashing..

The kid is kind of a turd, and I'm real glad he's a member of the Flames.

Ashex is trying to suggest high PIM's = Untalented Goon

I'm saying no, it doesn't. It might equal a real hard nosed piece of crazy but it doesn't equal goon.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by SinceDay1

I checked. There are currently 33 goalies in a role as starter or 1A/1B. 10 were chosen in the 1st round, 3 in the 2nd and 6 in the 3rd. 39% in the first 2 rounds. 75% if you include the 3rd. 1/3 of all NHL teams found their current starter in the first round. 5 of the top 10 leaders in GAA are 1st or 2nd rounders. SV%: 4 of 10. Wins: 3 of 10. Shutouts: 4 of 10.

There is a significant value in using a high pick on a goaltender if you ask me.

1/10 according to my count. Only Ward, MAF, and Price were drafted by their teams in the first round.

In fact at a glance it looks like more starters are actually traded for than drafted by their respective teams. Not saying teams should never take goalies high in the draft, just that it is a significant risk and the odds of that goalie becoming your starter are not very high at all

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Yes, I absolutely do. Most professional sports leagues do.

Here.....I will put it like this: in the future, you can assume that most of us know that players' heights are overstated.

You can still behave like you are the smartest guy in the room on other topics like "hardly anyone with junior scoring stats like kanzig has made the NHL."

[GoJetsGo]

We need more of this:



I hadn't seen this one before. Smith is a freight train...



Says he was suspended but it looked like the defender ducked and put himself in a terrible position to receive that hit with Smith being as tall as he is.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by SinceDay1

39% in the first 2 rounds.

So your saying that 61% were found outside of the first two rounds.

[SinceDay1]

Originally Posted by neo45

1/10 according to my count. Only Ward, MAF, and Price were drafted by their teams in the first round.

In fact at a glance it looks like more starters are actually traded for than drafted by their respective teams. Not saying teams should never take goalies high in the draft, just that it is a significant risk and the odds of that goalie becoming your starter are not very high at all

Fair enough. I should have looked at that more closely. I think it's fair to say that 1/3 of NHL teams have starting goaltenders chosen in the first round.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by SinceDay1

I checked. There are currently 33 goalies in a role as starter or 1A/1B. 10 were chosen in the 1st round, 3 in the 2nd and 6 in the 3rd. 39% in the first 2 rounds. 75% if you include the 3rd. 1/3 of all NHL teams found their current starter in the first round. 5 of the top 10 leaders in GAA are 1st or 2nd rounders. SV%: 4 of 10. Wins: 3 of 10. Shutouts: 4 of 10.

There is a significant value in using a high pick on a goaltender if you ask me.

Anaheim: Anderson (87th overall)
Arizona: Smith (161st overall)
Boston: Rask (21st overall)
Buffalo: Johnson (125th overall)
Calgary: Hiller (undrafted)
Carolina: Ward (25th overall)
Chicago: Crawford (52nd overall)
Colorado: Varlamov (23rd overall)
Columbus: Bobrovsky (undrafted)
Dallas: Lehtonen (2nd overall)
Detroit: Howard (64th overall)
Edmonton: Ben Scrivens (undrafted)
Florida: Luongo (4th overall)
Los Angeles: Quick (72nd overall)
Minnesota: Dubnyk (14th overall)
Montreal: Price (4th overall)
Nashville: Rinne (258th overall)
New Jersey: Schneider (26th overall)
New York Islanders: Halak (271st overall)
New York Rangers: Lundqvist (205th overall)
Ottawa: Anderson (73rd overall)
Philadelphia: Mason (69th overall)
Pittsburgh: Fleury (1st overall)
San Jose: Niemi (undrafted)
St. Louis: Elliot (291st overall)
Tampa Bay: Bishop (85th overall)
Toronto: Bernier (11th overall)
Vancouver: Miller (138th overall)
Washington: Holtby (93rd overall)
Winnipeg: Hutchinson (77th overall)



How does this go against what I said? 63% of starting goaltenders were selected 61st overall and beyond, or were undrafted completely. Of the 10 teams that have starting goaltenders that were drafted in the 1st round, only 3 of them were selected by their current team. You simply will not get those results with skaters.

Obviously I don't have the time, but if you were to do this with skaters, it would be a steadily declining slope from the 1st round downward.

Hence the relationship is not nearly as strong for goaltenders.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by polak

Anyways, Hunter Smith was a bad pick and Burke should feel bad.

Your post makes no sense. Too early to call Smith a bad pick and Burke likely had little to no say in it so you seem wrong on all counts

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by Parallex

So your saying that 61% were found outside of the first two rounds.

Originally Posted by SinceDay1

Fair enough. I should have looked at that more closely. I think it's fair to say that 1/3 of NHL teams have starting goaltenders chosen in the first round.

Goalie drafting is tougher than forwards, but you can get talent early. The key thing to watch over the next few years is how this trend changes/stays the same, with better scouting and development.


Anyway, back to Smith. You take a guy like that in the 2nd round as he is a tough to find player - his size is not common in the NHL, especially for a forward, and if he has the ability to check and score garbage goals, he is a useful commodity.
Outside of the 1st round, teams become more split on who is the BPA, as some teams look for physical gifts, hockey IQ, skating, etc. But all players beyond the elite group have some warts - it is about going with who your scouts think have potential and seeing if those warts will go away with development or can be coached away.
I think he is a good pick, as he has potential to fill a unique role. If he busts, he busts, that is why the team picks multiple players, to try to unearth good NHL players

[dustygoon]

Larger forwards...in particular power forwards...and goalies seem to take a little longer to develop. Tough to judge those picks now.

I think Smith was a reasonable risk/reward pick where they got him. If he gets to a point where he can play and have kind of a Tom Wilson style of game, they got their money's worth.

As for the goalie, the only issue I had with taking macdonald was that they seemed to want to draft a goalie no matter what with that pick once Lemieux was off the board rather than BPA approach. I guess BPA > BGA methodology.

[D as in David]

If you build your hockey team using averages you're likely to build an average team.

[Hackey]

Nice excel graph there.

Biggest thing I took from those Hunter Smith clips though is his skating does look like it needs work and he doesn't seem sturdy on his feet. Bit worrisome but hopefully doesn't prevent him from becoming an effective player for the Flames. It was also a couple very short clips so I guess I shouldn't really make any judgements just based on that.

As for all these averages and statistics people are bringing up they are all irrelevant really. You could say 80% of starting goalies are selected in the 7th round. Does that mean selecting Price 5th overall would be dumb or a mistake? Were drafting individual players in individual drafts. While the stats might give a general idea of how things happen on average they don't always happen that way. You have to draft according to the specific players in the specific draft. Basing your picks on statistics from other drafts seems stupid. Some people would say don't draft dmen high they are riskier look at Erik Johnson. Dmen aren't the issue, Erik Johnson is the issue. Ekblad looks amazing. So while I might have even preferred the Flames go after a dman with the Mason McDonald pick the scouts obviously felt that Mason McDonald was the most valuable player still available. Same goes for Hunter Smith.

[Ashasx]

I didn't know it was frowned upon to use Excel to create charts to post on forums.