Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[sureLoss]

Dan Murphy @sportsnetmurph
#Canucks GM Jim Benning to address media at noon EST. Ryan Miller to undergo MRI in Vancouver later today. Hearing minimum 4-6 weeks.

[Igster]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Dan Murphy @sportsnetmurph
#Canucks GM Jim Benning to address media at noon EST. Ryan Miller to undergo MRI in Vancouver later today. Hearing minimum 4-6 weeks.

Wow. Big blow for the Canucks. Although Lack came into that last game and played very, very well.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Wow, I must have totally misread the forum rules. Is this kind of stuff allowed?

Updated following the weekend.

What is this probability based on?

[saillias]

Mr. Corsi linked this article to show how his graph is made. http://www.silversevensens.com/2014/...tions-with-pip

So what I gather... It's a team's Fenwick over their last 25 games.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Canucks' current injuries based on where they were playing pre-injury:

#1RW (Burrows)
#2C (Bonino)
#3C (Richardson)
#1D (Edler)
#2D (Tanev)
#4D (Bieksa)
#7D (Corrado)
#1G (Miller)

Yikes.

Originally Posted by Igster

Wow. Big blow for the Canucks. Although Lack came into that last game and played very, very well.

Lack has a higher save percentage than Miller, and hey'll likely call up Jacob Markstrom, who currently has a sub-2.0 GAA and .932 save percentage in the AHL. So on paper this doesn't look like a huge loss... but last year, they went with the same tandem down the stretch and Lack couldn't handle the workload (possibly because of fatigue given that he started 100% of the games). If that history repeats itself, they're probably screwed.

What if it doesn't, though? Say Lack continues to play well about as well as Miller was, and Vancouver basically stays where they are in the standings and make the playoffs. Does this not demonstrate that signing Miller for 6 mil a year was a waste of much-needed cap space?

[polak]

See why I called all of those games must wins?

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Does this not demonstrate that signing Miller for 6 mil a year was a waste of much-needed cap space?

Much needed cap space to sign what, exactly? Tanev and Mathias at season's end?

Canucks got the other UFA they targeted in Vrbata.

After Lack fell apart and Markstrom looked unprepared last year, Miller seemed like a smart insurance policy. If Lack and Markstrom come in and are both lights out, we get a valued trade piece and peace-of-mind when Miller is gone.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Much needed cap space to sign what, exactly? Tanev and Mathias at season's end?

I don't know, maybe a legitimate second line center? It's 6 million in cap space. That's a lot of opportunity cost. Who knows what you could do with it.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by saillias

Mr. Corsi linked this article to show how his graph is made. http://www.silversevensens.com/2014/...tions-with-pip

So what I gather... It's a team's Fenwick over their last 25 games.

Most notably, the model ignores special teams.

Winnipeg is worst in the league at giving power plays (251 times shorthanded) and gives up more power play shots (354 shots) and goals (49 goals) than every team but one. Winnipeg need strong Fenwick 5on5 just to stay in the games. This is why they have +3 goal differential.

Meanwhile Calgary gives far and away the fewest power plays (135 times shorthanded) and gives up fewest power play shots (166 shots) and 3rd fewest goals (27 goals). Calgary would have done even better if their PK save percentage was not below league average.

Power play shots against are way more costly than 5on5 shots against. Shooting percentage league wide is around 13% on PP versus 8% 5on5.

So this graph grossly overestimates Winnipeg's chances and underestimates Calgary's chances because:

- it ignores special teams
- special teams has a massive impact on goal differential
- goal differential impacts wins (obviously)
- wins impact playoff probabilities (obviously)

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I don't know, maybe a legitimate second line center? It's 6 million in cap space. That's a lot of opportunity cost. Who knows what you could do with it.

Who was available? I don't recall there being anything that good on the market.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

^Can't recall a long list, but Grabovski was there and is probably at least as good as Bonino. Query whether he'd sign a one year deal. But the point is, if you've got 6 million bucks and you're smart about it you can find an asset who belongs in your top 6F/4D. Ehrhoff signed for 1y/4m in Pittsburgh.

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

Most notably, the model ignores special teams

Indeed it does. He says, on this point, that he has a second model that incorporates special teams data (particularly shot generation and suppression data on PP / PK) that is slightly more accurate. However, the difference is minimal (i.e. it wouldn't show up over the remainder of the season according to him) that he publishes the chart without that stuff factored in.

It also apparently does not account for CHIP (cap hit of injured players), which I would think, intuitively, makes a big difference. We're just talking about Vancouver's injury troubles. I would think that missing your top pairing, starting goalie, a top six RW and both your second and third line center for any period of time would heavily impact your chances. However, it's really difficult to account for without throwing a wrench into the model that would make it worse.

It does, by the way, take into account opposition strength and home vs away.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

What is this probability based on?

I'll stick with sportsclub stats, if we were going by advanced stats the Flames would be down there with Buffalo

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

^I don't think you quite appreciate how historically awful the Sabres are. No one is down there with them.

[Meers]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Canucks' current injuries based on where they were playing pre-injury:

#1RW (Burrows)
#2C (Bonino)
#3C (Richardson)
#1D (Edler)
#2D (Tanev)
#4D (Bieksa)
#7D (Corrado)
#1G (Miller)

They're done. Finished. Kaput. Passed on. No more. Ceased to be. Expired and gone to meet their maker. Stiffs. Bereft of life. Resting in peace. If their early season hadn't nailed them to their perch they'd be pushing up the daisies. Their metabolic processes are now history. They're off the twig. Kicked the bucket. Shuffled off their mortal coil. Run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible. This is an ex-playoff team.

Zero percent of making the playoffs. Ziltch.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Indeed it does. He says, on this point, that he has a second model that incorporates special teams data (particularly shot generation and suppression data on PP / PK) that is slightly more accurate. However, the difference is minimal (i.e. it wouldn't show up over the remainder of the season according to him) that he publishes the chart without that stuff factored in.

Yeah he's clearly glossing over the special teams impact. We all (should) understand these models have limitations in their effectiveness. I don't know the details of his work. Maybe he is using "rates" of shots generated/suppressed and not "absolute values" and determining it doesn't make a difference.

Winnipeg's PK rate is 80.5% and Calgary's is 80.0%, doesn't seem to be significant.

Yet Winnipeg has given up 22 more powerplay goals than Calgary in 60 games, and still has a better PK rate. That is crazy. it explains the discrepancy in overall goal differential.

Another point (I digress) is teams like WPG have high possession stats because they are "taking liberties" to gain an edge all over the ice. I attend 40 NHL games a year and see it all over the ice, not just around the puck. Refs can only call so much. Those teams gain advantages 5on5 but pay a price with an extra penalty every game or so. Can they score enough with the 5on5 advantage to compensate?

This becomes significant in a third period, game or series if they have to change their game to more discipline. They no longer take liberties and lose much of their 5on5 advantages.

On the flip side, a team like CGY doesn't take as many liberties as evidenced by the fewer power plays given, and their advanced stats reflect the extra restraints taken. If the refs weren't calling penalties then CGY would be free to change their game to take more liberties and better level the ice 5on5. Obviously CGY has smaller skilled players and they are happy to take extra PP opportunities and PP shots on goal, even if it means giving up more 5on5 shots against.

The teams with excellent 5on5 stats combined with simultaneous discipline at 5on5 are the real heavyweights that should be at the top of everyone's rankings. And they are obviously at the top of the standings.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

^I don't think you quite appreciate how historically awful the Sabres are. No one is down there with them.

It's actually quite shocking. I'd love to see what the penguins/devils pre Lemieux were. I'd bet close

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

^Can't recall a long list, but Grabovski was there and is probably at least as good as Bonino. Query whether he'd sign a one year deal. But the point is, if you've got 6 million bucks and you're smart about it you can find an asset who belongs in your top 6F/4D. Ehrhoff signed for 1y/4m in Pittsburgh.

Atleast as good as Bonino when we have Bonino.

I get what you're saying. But at the time, with the way last season ended, giving Lack more time behind a proven starter looked like a good idea. Hell, depending how the next month and a bit goes it could become a "Yep. Lack still needs that guy ahead of him" conversation.

An extra 6 million to waste on something else is still a waste.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Meers

They're done. Finished. Kaput. Passed on. No more. Ceased to be. Expired and gone to meet their maker. Stiffs. Bereft of life. Resting in peace. If their early season hadn't nailed them to their perch they'd be pushing up the daisies. Their metabolic processes are now history. They're off the twig. Kicked the bucket. Shuffled off their mortal coil. Run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible. This is an ex-playoff team.

Zero percent of making the playoffs. Ziltch.

I hope the hockey gods are watching your pathetic troll jobs and bury the Nucks just to spite you

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

^I don't think you quite appreciate how historically awful the Sabres are. No one is down there with them.

The Edmonton Oilers say hi

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Nope. If you want to look at utter hopelessness over a series of five or so seasons, sure. But just this year? There has literally not been an Oilers team this bad... well, probably ever, but definitely in the cap era. Even that godawful 09-10 team doesn't stack up for sheer horrendousness.