Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

The rules are there in black and white and have been agreed to, the rest is just your opinion.

I stand by my first statement.

The rules state that the playoffs shall not be played until all the games of the regular season are complete, and that all teams shall play an equal number of regular-season games. Your first statement is therefore irrelevant.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

The rules state that the playoffs shall not be played until all the games of the regular season are complete, and that all teams shall play an equal number of regular-season games. Your first statement is therefore irrelevant.

If it's irrelevant, why do they have rules for it?

I think some people just want to start a fight.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

This is not the case. Over time, goal differential approaches possession in terms of predictive value, but to say goal differential is better and possession stats are "not even close" will require that you provide some link to somewhere where that's been demonstrated, or you could demonstrate it yourself.


If literally everyone on CP is dismissive of possession as a useful predictive measure (see the guy immediately above me) then they deserve it. Or, if you don't like the anti-vaccination comparison, try flat-earthers. Not even worth talking about hockey with.

You have quite the opinion of yourself eh?

I have one of you too....

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by transplant99

You have quite the opinion of yourself eh?

I have one of you too....

And from that comment he'll tell his buddies that the reason he got lit up is that we don't like the data. I actually agree with a lot the analysis on 5v5 corsi being a better predictor than goal differential. I don't need to come to a fan forum and tell people I'm smarter than them though

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

If it's irrelevant, why do they have rules for it

Because they want to publish the standings during the season, when not all teams have played the same number of games.

Next question?

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Because they want to publish the standings during the season, when not all teams have played the same number of games.

Next question?

No, it's because it gives a relevant basis on the current team standings.

If you think the standings are irrelevant, I don't know what to think but that I'm arguing with someone who just wants to argue or doesn't understand the basics, so you aren't worth my time.

[AcGold]

Calgary will make the playoffs. Winnipegs schedule is brutal. Minnesota will push out Winnipeg. We get bounced by Nashville in the first round.

Next year we come back with 3 or 4 new rookies and make it past the first round.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

No, it's because it gives a relevant basis on the current team standings.

If you think the standings are irrelevant, I don't know what to think but that I'm arguing with someone who just wants to argue or doesn't understand the basics, so you aren't worth my time.

Go ahead and argue with that imaginary person or not, as you please. I never said the standings were irrelevant. But the question of how to compensate for unequal numbers of games played in the in-season standings IS irrelevant to the question of who makes the playoffs when the season is over: because that situation is never permitted to occur at the end of the season.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

No, it's because it gives a relevant basis on the current team standings.

If you think the standings are irrelevant, I don't know what to think but that I'm arguing with someone who just wants to argue or doesn't understand the basics, so you aren't worth my time.

1. In order for teams to be in the playoffs the season must be over.
2. In order for the season to be over, there must be no regular season games left to be played.
3. If there are no games left to be played, games in hand means nothing.
4. Canucks would play the Flames if standings remained the same at the end of the season.
5. You're the one arguing. Aren't you the guy who had that 2 year argument in the Coyotes thread?

[Red John]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

And from that comment he'll tell his buddies that the reason he got lit up is that we don't like the data. I actually agree with a lot the analysis on 5v5 corsi being a better predictor than goal differential. I don't need to come to a fan forum and tell people I'm smarter than them though

That's actually why advanced stats get such a bad rap.

It's because most of their proponents are smarmy and unlikeable. Starts with guys like Cullen and Drance and goes right down to the idiot in this thread.

People are more receptive to information when they don't feel belittled. Especially from nerds who would rather read box scores than watch games.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Go ahead and argue with that imaginary person or not, as you please. I never said the standings were irrelevant. But the question of how to compensate for unequal numbers of games played in the in-season standings IS irrelevant to the question of who makes the playoffs when the season is over: because that situation is never permitted to occur at the end of the season.

I'm saying that currently using the NHL standings the Kings would play the Canucks. That's the current status of the two teams according to their rules. I'm not projecting their final playoff standings.

[Street Pharmacist]

Worst argument on CP. 1/10

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

This is not the case. Over time, goal differential approaches possession in terms of predictive value, but to say goal differential is better and possession stats are "not even close" will require that you provide some link to somewhere where that's been demonstrated, or you could demonstrate it yourself.


If literally everyone on CP is dismissive of possession as a useful predictive measure (see the guy immediately above me) then they deserve it. Or, if you don't like the anti-vaccination comparison, try flat-earthers. Not even worth talking about hockey with.

I don't think people are dismissive of possession of a useful predictor of success, but that Corsi or Fenwick may not be the best proxy for it. I very much look forward to the NHL using the chip technology they used at the all-star game. Until then, Corsi and Fenwick are just measurements of shot attempts and shot attempts minus blocks, or SAT and USAT.

[Huntingwhale]

By the time we play again on Tuesday we might be back a couple spots.

[malcolmk14]

Dallas winning in regulation tonight would help a lot.

Flames need to string a few wins together to get into a more comfortable position, but it is going to be very very close right until the end I think.

[dieHARDflameZ]

Thanks for nothing NYI...

[blender]

Originally Posted by malcolmk14

Dallas winning in regulation tonight would help a lot.

Flames need to string a few wins together to get into a more comfortable position, but it is going to be very very close right until the end I think.

I see the final two games of the season as possible extreme nail-biters.
You've got LA for a division or WC spot and then the Jets for a WC.

Hope its decided in Calgary's favour before that...

[Tsawwassen]

After Sunday's games:

Vancouver (34-22-3) 31 ROW, 71 pts--second in Pacific Division
1. Winnipeg (30-20-11) 24 ROW, 71 pts
2. Minnesota (31-21-7) 29 ROW, 69 pts
Los Angeles (28-18-12) 27 ROW, 68 pts--third in the Pacific Division
3. Calgary (32-23-4) 29 ROW, 68 pts--and fourth in Pacific Division
4. San Jose (30-23-8) 28 ROW, 68 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (27-24-9) 25 ROW, 63 pts
6. Colorado (26-23-11) 19 ROW, 63 pts

Wild, Canucks, and Avs won in regulation
Stars lost in regulation

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Red John

That's actually why advanced stats get such a bad rap. It's because most of their proponents are smarmy and unlikeable. Starts with guys like Cullen and Drance and goes right down to the idiot in this thread. People are more receptive to information when they don't feel belittled. Especially from nerds who would rather read box scores than watch games.

Wow, I must have totally misread the forum rules. Is this kind of stuff allowed?

Updated following the weekend.

[Imported_Aussie]

Sportsclubstats show the Flames with a better chance than Winnipeg due to games in hand and Winnipeg's brutal schedule.
The Flames' road trip makes the picture look murky though - they could make it in still with an "OK" record, but a poor run would leave the Flames relying on a collapse from 1 team above them. That could be Winnipeg, but then again, they could also be buyers at the deadline, as they need to make the playoffs to get the fanbase reignited

Flames current chances: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

Pace right now is 94 points (rounded down). Odds of making playoffs with 94 pts listed as mid-high 70s. Raise that to 96, odds jump to 95%

With the road trip coming up. The Flames need 8 points from 7 games to stay on pace (approx 1.15 pts/game = 94 point pace). They do better, then playoffs look like a safe bet. They do worse, then depending on how teams went around them, those last 16 games will need to be very strong