CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

Why are you pushing me to vote for Diss?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Why are you pushing me to vote for Diss?

I'm not pushing you specifically. I mentioned all 3 of you who are suspicious of Diss. You said 'let's kill mafia'. Well here's your chance.

Most of the time people want to kill who they think is mafia but can't drum up more than 1 or two votes of support. Here all three of you had a chance, but won't act.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GGG

This is the second eternal power that failed on me.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Deflector

Mrkajz's power is interesting. It takes the targeted player and redirects any actions done to them.

To me this would have been best used on our doctor to deflect the kill we knew was coming. So the only thing that would stop this power is Squiggs push through power used on the mafia person doing the kill.

Squiggs,

Why did ECF die if Mrjajz should have been protecting him.

In fact, forms kills were messed with but the mafias has worked every time.

[GGG]

I have a big oling post coming so please wait. Should be done by nine

[Hockeyguy15]

Rathji just to be clear I did say don't hammer because I wanted to see Diss' death post, after that we could proceed if it didn't change our minds. I do think you're town, but I did find it odd that you didn't vote after he posted. I don't think you mentioned your stance on him changing at all.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I'm not pushing you specifically. I mentioned all 3 of you who are suspicious of Diss. You said 'let's kill mafia'. Well here's your chance.

Except it will be another dead townie. I have already said it a million times, it doesn't really matter. This is the toughest game of mafia I have ever played by a mile. Hard to judge who is scum and who isn't. I still stand by my twilight theory though, it is the only thing I have to go on. I just hope once I am gone the town will finally hit on some scum. I still win if the town does, dead or not.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

So I spent over an hour going back and reviewing all the "big votes" much like I did last night with the Day 3 votes. I consdiered big votes to be anyone that had at least 4 votes against them at one time.

Here is my findings:

Late Voters
-Dissentowner's average vote is 8.0 (latest average), and has voted only on four of the big votes
-Squiggs average vote is 6.7 (second latest average), came in early on GP matt both in day 1 and 2, but late all the other times
-Girly and Formulate are the next "latest average" voters at 6.2 and 6.0 respecively. Girly did have a 1st, 3rd vote. Formulate's votes all fall between 4 and 8

Mid-voters
-Aeneas, starseed, puxlut, timbo and rathji all have vote averages between 4.8 and 5.7 - very middle ground voters
-Timbo and Aeneas range is 3rd - 8th
-Starseed and puxlut have a few early and late ones
-Rathji has only voted three times on the "big votes", ranging from 2nd to 9th

Early-voters
-GGG has voted first two time, second two times and 6th once for an average vote of 2.4 - earliest voter on average
-HG has a first vote, and two 5th votes, second earliest on average
-Oiling and mrkajz have averages of 4.4 and 4.5
-Oiling votes all fall between 2-4, with one being very late 12th on Matt the first day
-Mrkajz has 3 second voets, a first vote, three 5-7, and one 11th - wide range

So, where does that leave us? I see a few things that stick out:

-Dissentowner comes in late all the time and doesn't vote too often
-Formulate tends to be the middle of the pack all the time
-Timbo and Aeneas also likes to be a middle of the pack voter (similar voting pattern to Formulate)
-GGG tends to lead the charge with HG close behind
-Oling comes in as the fourth vote 4 times and tends to be an early voter


I will post my list of how I arrived at these numbers for everyone to take a look, though the raw data is not very easy to interpret.

I think this is important

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Except it will be another dead townie. I have already said it a million times, it doesn't really matter. This is the toughest game of mafia I have ever played by a mile. Hard to judge who is scum and who isn't. I still stand by my twilight theory though, it is the only thing I have to go on. I just hope once I am gone the town will finally hit on some scum. I still win if the town does, dead or not.

If they said you were townie and that was their reason for not voting for you that's fine. I wouldn't have mentioned it. But they are waffling. GGG already voted for you and withdrew. Rathji went on a rampage and called you everything but won't vote. Puxlut says she will hammer if we say so.. why does she need permission. She's not a supporting actress, she's equal to everyone else.

They all think you're mafia but won't pull the trigger, it makes them more suspicious.

I think you're mafia so my vote is there. You think Starseed is mafia so your vote is there. I haven't been right all game either, none of us have. You are no longer in lynch position, let's see where everyone stands.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by formulate

Here it all is, read as much or as little as you see fit:
-I think I've decided not to share everything I know (investigation-wise) with the town. I'll give the mafia a fighting chance but this is something I want to put out there for all the trouble Oling has caused me (rightly so I suppose haha): I attempted to kill him last night (would have felt so good); it failed. I attempted to kill GGG night one; didn't fail but was redirected to Bizaro (sorry!). That's all I'll say.

Here is a snap shot of formulates death post. Oling was attempted to be night killed by form on night 3. Wood is alive and known town so should be the doctors target. Squiggs also protected wood some reason that night. He states he wants to give the mafia a fighting chance but wants to get oling in trouble implying that he is scum. Oling brushes off any attacks based on him being the godfather, then spends the next two days getting me lynched.

So Oling why are you protected from night kills.

[Hockeyguy15]

Here is what is weird for me about today. Diss does his death post, and no one really changes their mind about him and in fact not much is said for pretty much the whole day.

Why did Diss not get hammered? Does it mean that scum didn't want to hammer one of their own? Or does it mean that the Mafia were just sitting and waiting for us to do the dirty work for them again?

[GGG]

After Form is outed Oling is no longer interested in using the rewind

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I would be okay with not using the rewind.

Honestly, I'm a bit afraid that Rathji is mafia too. I'm a bit worried that the delay in this was mafia talking in their thread weighing the pros and cons.

But Rathji shooting formulate, agreeing with the town to do so, makes him look good. Formulate not dieing, and volunteering to die to prove his innocence, makes him look good.

I would rather hold off on any flat out accusations until formulate is revealed as mafia, but Rathji being tempted with this vig-kill and joining the cults did not leave a great impression on me.

30 minutes later he is again anti rewind

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I think I'm leaning towards no rewind simply because I don't know if I trust him with another bullet. The side effects might not be worth it just to kill a townie.

If we do rewind, I would prefer that we already have a suspect lined up for Rathji to shoot his/her head off of as opposed to giving him "complete control."

With that said, I'll stay out of the decision on who to kill. I'll let a formulate lynch prove my story first.

He also wants form to prove his story. This proves his tracking results are correct and has a well defined town power so pushes him off of the unknown list

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If it makes you feel any better, I did have you first night sort of. Just needed an excuse to bring it up that didn't draw a huge target on my back from the rest of the mafia.

I don't know if I buy the serial killer reveal though. Still calling Godfather!

Of course he is, needs to separate himself from the Godfather

I asked why he was protected

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I was not notifed of anything but that I couldn't track Formulate.

Who was apparently standing right behind me! If he is to be believed.

He talks about the tracking power and jokes about being protected.

Going back to Olings vote pattern is that he votes third or fourth, never in the lead position early in the game and never in the Pile on position. This is the ideal location for active scum to post.

Oling has also declined a guardian invite, I am heavily leaning toward scum not being able to accept any invites no proof though but it seems to fit.

The one thing I couldn't figure out that was bugging me is how can he be both the tracker and the mafia godfather. I realized that his scum buddies could just feed him the results.

I have been flip flopping all day the reason being is that oling is me favourite suspect and I couldn't resolve the tracking issue with oling.

vote oling_roachinin

I am willing to move at the deadline to one of the others if no one else is on board with oling.

[Oling_Roachinen]

GGG, I have no reason for being night protected.

Personally, I don't think he was being honest with his post ever. That was actually one of the reasons I suspected you, you may recall. Not because you survived an attempt from him, but rather that you took his word as truth right away that he was the Serial Killer and everything was honest in his post. As a town we were still looking for our next target to kill (although the second kill didn't come back), so it would have made sense for Formulate to lie in his reveal post if he was mafia to protect his friends. So my inclination at the time was the only people who would know he was Serial Killer, as fact, would be mafia. You seemed to take it as fact.

To me it never made sense for him to try and kill me. I was not subtle in my suspicion for him. Killing me that night would have been too risky. It would have drawn a huge target on his back, especially with my cardflip, in my opinion.

For just a taste of how hard I went after him (most of these are cut down posts and there's probably even more posts where I throw my suspicion on him):

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Definite red flags here. You weren't on my radar at all, but this reeks of trying to find outing the best way for the mafia to handle the doctor tonight.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I keep coming back to this post.

I know with the Delgar reveal I don't have the best track record (also sorry Delgar) but this seems like formulate was reading about the doctor to try and plan the best way to handle him. He straight up asks if the doctor can save himself, why would he need clarification on this if he wasn't trying to figure out the best way to approach the night and ECF?

FALCON PUNCH!
Vote: formulate

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Going back and reading his posts a bit, he seems to be playing the "super townie" as cover. Here he defers the vote to 'known' townies. Starseed did the exact same thing last game when he was mafia.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

But that could be the case if you are mafia as well. It's a big slip-up either way

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

My vote is secured for today. I think you are the one giving out the Eternal invites.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

For that reason I'm against a Starseed lynch as he can tell us something later (if he can't tell us right now) that could be useful. I'm keeping my vote on Formulate.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

However, I'm more suspicious of you than all 3 of them still.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I still want to make clear my suspicion for Formulate.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I do, however, agree with his thinking of Formulate though.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Although I agree with him about Formulate.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

My new list (I don't think everyone should post theirs):
Mafia:
Starseed
Girlysports
Formulate

Town:
East Coast Flame
Wood
GGG

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Still suspicious of formulate though.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I do think starseed has brought up some good points, like on formulate playing a similar game to him in the first game, so I think we can go back and look over his posts without doubts that he was just trying to cause a ####storm with the MOT but was actually trying to help us.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Sorry, don't know if I believe it's just a coincidence you show up right as the vote for Starseed fails.

So was he willing to throw the game away on Night 2 just to get me out and sacrifice his own game? I don't think so.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

After Form is outed Oling is no longer interested in using the rewind




30 minutes later he is again anti rewind




He also wants form to prove his story. This proves his tracking results are correct and has a well defined town power so pushes him off of the unknown list



Of course he is, needs to separate himself from the Godfather
.

Yes, I didn't trust Rathji with another bullet at the time. Drury18 had received an invite and let it expire, I had received an invite and let it expire, it was Rathji who got tempted with the bullet.

Once it was decided that Wood would be the one to chose the target, Timbo would prove the target wasn't cop, and Rathji would shoot that I jumped on board.

That night, still not trusting Rathji, I followed him. He targeted no one, I thought doing nothing was more likely town than mafia and I vouched for him a bit.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

GGG, I have no reason for being night protected.

Personally, I don't think he was being honest with his post ever. That was actually one of the reasons I suspected you, you may recall. Not because you survived an attempt from him, but rather that you took his word as truth right away that he was the Serial Killer and everything was honest in his post. As a town we were still looking for our next target to kill (although the second kill didn't come back), so it would have made sense for Formulate to lie in his reveal post if he was mafia to protect his friends. So my inclination at the time was the only people who would know he was Serial Killer, as fact, would be mafia. You seemed to take it as fact.

To me it never made sense for him to try and kill me. I was not subtle in my suspicion for him. Killing me that night would have been too risky. It would have drawn a huge target on his back, especially with my cardflip, in my opinion.

For just a taste of how hard I went after him (most of these are cut down posts and there's probably even more posts where I throw my suspicion on him):

So was he willing to throw the game away on Night 2 just to get me out and sacrifice his own game? I don't think so.

If you believed he was lying and you believe he is lying why did you use the fact that he tried to kill me but it didn't work to lynch me the following day.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

If you believed he was lying and you believe he is lying why did you use the fact that he tried to kill me but it didn't work to lynch me the following day.

Would you mind showing me the posts you were referring to?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Would you mind showing me the posts you were referring to?

Never mind wasnt you, was Drury. You are correct you were solid on the you didn't believe the reveal. Why didn't you believe the reveal? It was a confession what could be gained from lying that day. Everything in his post appears to be true except for you being bulletproof? Is that your position?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Never mind wasnt you, was Drury. You are correct you were solid on the you didn't believe the reveal. Why didn't you believe the reveal? It was a confession what could be gained from lying that day. Everything in his post appears to be true except for you being bulletproof? Is that your position?

The next action wasn't his lynch though.

We were just about to reset time. As far as I was aware (as was the rest of the town), Rathji was just about to get his kill back. So while he was going to be lynched later that day, if he was mafia and was outed, it actually made more sense to say he was Serial Killer and acting alone than to say he was mafia and tell us to go back and read his posts to find his friends.

So I thought there was still a chance he was mafia and trying to protect his friends. Believe me, I was going through everyone of his posts trying to find any connection to give us the best chance to find his mafia buddies but the only big one I could see was Starseed (not wanting to hammer) and Timbo (the Rathji mutual post) but at that time I was more leaning towards them being town.

[Oling_Roachinen]

And again, it didn't make sense for him to go after me night 2 or night 3 (or whenever it was) because of how hard I was pressing for him. If he killed me, he would be a huge target considering how hard I had gone for him.

So I think he was just trying to make me look like I'm night protected as revenge for outing him.

[Oling_Roachinen]

But GGG, let's face it. No matter what happens, if Squiggs96 reveals town, I'm going to be your absolute target. You've pretty much said as much. And I think a lot of people will follow you.

But I'm still here, trying to get Squiggs96 revealed because I believe he is our best chance at being mafia.

It looks pretty solid that he's been writing the misleading first posts of the day by Mazrim (Eternals are contrived deceit stuff).

His power, to stop the roleblocker, is a direct anti-power to the roleblocker...who was town.

He refused to reveal who he targeted night 3 until just recently.

He targeted Puxlut knowing that the Eternal powers are fake.

He wanted us to focus on the Guardians to start the day.

It doesn't add up to me. Or well, maybe I should it adds up to me but just not in the good way.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Here is what is weird for me about today. Diss does his death post, and no one really changes their mind about him and in fact not much is said for pretty much the whole day.

Why did Diss not get hammered? Does it mean that scum didn't want to hammer one of their own? Or does it mean that the Mafia were just sitting and waiting for us to do the dirty work for them again?

This is why I waited. I wanted to see what would happen to give us more info on who was willing to commit to voting, what people would say. I also wanted to see what people would say about the Starseed/Puxlut comments I made.

Both Aeneas and GirlySports have jumped on the same bandwagon at the same time, without any sort of reasoning.

Oling made some interesting comments, not sure what to make of them yet.