I think I am becoming too much of a distraction, so I want to get that off the table early. With Delgar taking a bullet for ECF, I think he has bought me time to be out in the open. I considered this for a while, but I think having known townies was helpful in the first game. I came up with the idea of the Masters of Twilight, as a way to point the finger away from the masons and generate discussion. Unfortunately, we are no better than anyone else. We failed with Delgar and devo, in fact, they were our choices for our extra vote. I also did not want to be the cause of the cop wasting an investigation, if there is a cop. I also did not want to have Timbo come out and say he was my mason partner when I die, using the star thing as evidence.
We also considered that it might be better for people to have details about which faction killed whom to talk about today, rather than tomorrow. In considering that everyone revealing is a bad idea, my partner is going to remain silent. The MOT thread is sufficient to prove I am telling the truth.
So as for the faction that killed devo, it was the Darkness.
I went through the early part of the thread and jotted some notes:
GGG
Voted for oling when the town was on Bizarro. Correctly noted that no one was defending bizarro by trying to steer the conversation toward another inactive player, like Baxter. My paranoia is saying that he made up the tracking thing to support our belief that ECF is the doctor, but I tend to think that paranoid thought is stupid. I wanted him on the list to see more pressure from him.
Drury defended Oling after the GGG accusation. I think mafia wouldnt be so open about that, but it might be worth looking into if we run out of other leads and Oling flips mafia.
GirlySports
I think a lot of the suspicion is taken from the guardian rejection reveal. Before that, I had my suspicions, and have more afterwards. The reveal itself had calmed my suspicions. I wanted her on our list because I wanted to see more pressure on her. I have difficulty reading her.
Formulate/Timbo
I think the dual Rathji posts were suspect. The same brain wave at the same time when no one else had the same thought? This looks very much like the mafia had a coordination issue. It could be a coincidence, but I am not going to dismiss every possible tell as coincidence. The star thing was because I was making sure that one window was starseed, and the other was MOT1. I am thinking Timbo was recently logged in as well. Formulate had those awkward posts in the discussion with ECF. Like asking him to reveal information about his ability.
Formulate seems to be emulating me last game, along with the prodding known townies, he made the exact same speculation about mafia that I made regarding mafia getting on everyone to be active. This was in post #155. CofR was legitimately inactive, and I was worried about him being in the crosshairs.
As for the MOT. I said that we know nothing of the eternals/guardians, because I did not want to influence the discussion around them. I still cannot decide what they are about. I made sure to stress that we had no extra information, however, we did at least know one more confirmed townie than each of you. I said you were playing like ####, and I certainly believe that includes me as well.
When I said that we were getting led around, I did not necessarily mean anyone specific. And under my real name, I pointed out that our suspects all voted for squiggs.
I went back to the list of people that revealed their character, and in what order, and I noticed that I have the top 5 as unknowns (I include ECF). The bottom half of the list was heavy in confirmed townies from my perspective. They are:
GGG
Oling_Roachinen
Formulate
East Coast Flame
Stazzy33
I am now thinking that the mafia compared characters, saw that they were all random, so decided to get everyone to reveal, and use that as an excuse to vote out a townie. I have a good feeling that the above list has a couple mafia. GGG is at the top of the list. Oling is second. Formulate is third.
On my spreadsheet, I looked into how many times people voted, for whom, who they unvoted for, how close they were to another vote... etc. Lots of it seems irrelevant. However, I came up with a ratio of how many unique targets people voted for in the first ~1500 posts or so, and compared it to how many were confirmed townies (ECF is on the confirmed in my sheet, even though he is not confirmed). Baxter(now Aeneas) and Squiggs went 3 confirmed townies for 4. All on my top 5 revealers above scored 50% or below. Better than 6 active players.
My theory is that mafia strategy aimed at hiding, is to kill players that they have not targeted, and to vote for themselves, if it is safe to do so, or vote for targets that are not going to be hit, and thus turn up town. Perhaps I should ignore Baxter/Squiggs for now, and chalk it up to them being inactive and just voting for the target du jour.
So, my list becomes-
GGG
Oling
Formulate/Timbo
Maybe Stazzy or Mrkajz (Mrkaj was also an early character reveal)
GGG is too risky with the lynchproof claim. Plus, my gut is telling me that I am wrong about him. However, my gut is often wrong in this game.
Formulate/Timbo offer two targets that could help clear the other in my eyes.
I feel Oling is much different than last game, and for the reasons stated in my ill-fated Delgar vote post, I am voting for him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by starseed
Oling-
Late to the squiggs train, jump on while it is rolling
Jumps off squiggs when bizarro train is rolling, and jumps on
Gets called out by GGG
Votes again a day and a half later to jump back to squiggs
Votes to get the RD train rolling. Wasn't first, but it did unleash the RD train.
Once RD train was rolling to the edge, jumps off and onto GPmatt. All except squiggs are proven town.
I think he was thinking like captain crunch in the last game. Get the agulati train rolling, then jump off to vote for someone else so that the town flip will make you look good.
Plus, Oling has not been accusatory towards me in this game. Stark contrast from last game :P
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Vote: Oling_Roachinen
I will prove my identity in the MOT thread.
