CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[GGG]

vote eastcoastflames

the odds of us hitting the doctor are 1/19
The odds of us hitting mafia are 1/5 or better

Taking those odds it is much more probable that ECF is mafia than the doctor.

I realize by doing this it puts me directly in the line of fire for ECF tonight.

[Drury18]

I still stand by my suspicions from yesterday that GirlySports might be fabricating the invite. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=949

Her first post about it basically stated that she agreed with what starseed said, added nothing new:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I have rejected application to the Guardians. Nothing has happened to me yet that I know of. I will echo Starseed's message that I was not threatened in any way, was loaded with shed light on the darkness type flavor text and did not mention giving it to anyone else.

Then rejected it to see what would happen to her. HOWEVER, she never asked any questions of the invitee. So she blindly rejected. She made no attempt to bring any new information about the groups, just rejected to go to the next person. She left it open to have the next person give more information than her.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I rejected it to help the town gain more information and to confirm what Starseed said. And to show it's voluntary. I'm waiting for us all to see if anything happens to me.

We need to see two sides of everything. The next person invited to the Eternals should reject it to see what happens.

I'm not sure what to make of Rathji getting his actions moved. Probably just a random Night 1 move.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I didn't ask. I assumed the letter would say it if alignment changed upon acceptance or refusal especially since Starseed said earlier in the day a couple of times that he was not threatened in any way.

He Said "I confirmed that I would still be light before accepting whatever the hell it was that I accepted. "
I also wanted to see what would happen if I rejected then report it to the town or have the town see for itself. Nothing has happened yet.

Then when I asked about restrictions, she comes up with this story which doesn't add up to mrkajz's description of events:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

24 hours for me too and my letter said I couldn't not talk about it until I made a decision. I was the first one with the opportunity to reject since the 3 before me accepted so I wanted to reject it and let the town see what happened. I was expecting the first page to change to put something like "loser" beside my name for all to see. Or something else. But nothing happened.

mrkajz44 rejected the letter already knowing that I rejected it with no punishment.

And of course her wanting me to vote out one of GP_Matt, ECF or starseed because I put up a theory that if you joined the group, the mafia got an extra kill. She obviously never read my post because what she's suggesting and what I said don't even remotely go together. I feel she was pushing me towards voting for someone so that she could once again deflect the attention off of her since this was in the midst of her dodging people saying she hammered too quickly on RD.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

If you believe this is the case then you have to vote for one of them. Unless you really want to see if you are correct and we suffer 3 kills. That would really suck.

Something in all of this doesn't add up for me.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by GGG

vote eastcoastflames

the odds of us hitting the doctor are 1/19
The odds of us hitting mafia are 1/5 or better

Taking those odds it is much more probable that ECF is mafia than the doctor.

I realize by doing this it puts me directly in the line of fire for ECF tonight.

wut

How did you come up with these odds?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

vote eastcoastflames

the odds of us hitting the doctor are 1/19
The odds of us hitting mafia are 1/5 or better

Taking those odds it is much more probable that ECF is mafia than the doctor.

I realize by doing this it puts me directly in the line of fire for ECF tonight.

Odds get thrown out when he reveals though.I trust him.

If he is the doctor, and we had bad luck, then it's super important we don't vote him out:
1) We remove the doctor from the game
2) We allow the mafia out of their dilemna of having to go for the doctor or keeping him alive tonight
3) We remove a one-time kill that is town aligned.

I already trusted him as he seemed a bit more forthcoming about the groups and if he was afraid of losing his power it makes a bit more sense he would have joined to keep the doctor power in the game.

[Kjesse]

-I am seriously apprehensive about these side groups. They don't seem to fit what a "cult" usuall is, according to the mafiascum wiki-- and that's entirely likely, this is a very custom game.

-For the time being, it seems that nothing has changed the town's win conditions, and we haven't killed any mafia yet, so we should stick with trying to find and kill a mafia member.

-In any event, with everyone purportedly refusing to join, these cults can't grow. From there, I have to wonder how those cults were balanced... .a one shot kill is a hugely power ability, if ECF is to be believed, we'd almost have to think the cults are there with powers to help the town. On the other hand, I just don't believe that to be the case, for now.

-My list of non-cult suspicious players includes: squiggs, Baxter, hmmhmmcamo, GirlySports, and someone whom I won't mention now (not Puxlut). I'm off of Puxlut for the time being in part because her day 2 posts have been frequent, and if she's lying she's doing a good job (as is GP_Matt).

-I don't want to lynch GP_Matt now, in part because as things heat up he says just the right things to make me think he's being truthful. He's also being somewhat vague/misdirective, but that must be part of the cult thing, which we can figure out more as time goes on and while we hunt scum in the meantime.

-ECF's truth will come out tonight, except, there seem to be "unique" powers floating around. I'm not sure what to think of what may happen. Rathji's deflect issue is cause for confusion. IF ECF is town, he needs to pick a potential mafia member to kill tonight, and moreso, has to keep it quiet because otherwise the mafia may have a doctor of their own.

-I wonder if in the flavour, a blocked kill would be disclosed? I've skimmed some of the scum games on the big forum that game has, and have never seen how it is treated. Anyone?

-I think hmmhmmcamo is a very reasonable vote at this stage, though I have to say, when he mentioned GS's invite claim may be false, I was thinking that before. We have to review the order that happened in and report to the group. That can't be me today as I have other obligations the rest of today, but I'll be in the thick of things again by tomorrow evening. Until them I am likely to be relatively inactive but will pop in from time to time when I can.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Odds get thrown out when he reveals though.I trust him.

If he is the doctor, and we had bad luck, then it's super important we don't vote him out:
1) We remove the doctor from the game
2) We allow the mafia out of their dilemna of having to go for the doctor or keeping him alive tonight
3) We remove a one-time kill that is town aligned.

I already trusted him as he seemed a bit more forthcoming about the groups and if he was afraid of losing his power it makes a bit more sense he would have joined to keep the doctor power in the game.

One he revealed it becomes 1/5 doc 4/5 mafia.

If he was just the doctor I would agree with you but he is doctor with a night kill. This decision is a huge swing in the game.

[Kjesse]

I meant to reply to my own post then hit "edit" instead, but then tried to cancel the edit. No actual editing occured.

-I thought it was hmmmhmmcamo who mentioned GS' invite claim may be false? Was it Drury? or both?

[starseed]

GS and Mrkajz - what power were you offered? How was it offered?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

One he revealed it becomes 1/5 doc 4/5 mafia.

Not really. If he is doctor that was about his only move if he thought he was going to be lynched.

If he was mafia, it's extremely ballsy to 'reveal' you're the doctor. He had other outs, including having his mafia friends advocate for other people's lynch and all it does will buy him a day or two. Besides, if he is the mafia, he could be lying about pretty much everything including the night-kill.

[Drury18]

Originally Posted by Delgar

-I thought it was hmmmhmmcamo who mentioned GS' invite claim may be false? Was it Drury? or both?

I posted my thoughts about it shortly after she said it yesterday because I thought the timing was very beneficial to her to have this invite, state she denied it and then sort of fly under the radar that she said no so she must be townie. I didn't 100% say "I think it's false" yesterday but I certainly didn't sugarcoat the fact I felt that way and that events leading up to her stating she received an invite and claiming a denial were at the very least odd to me.

As more and more details emerged yesterday, the feeling got stronger as she could supply no new information about these invites and posted something contradictory to what another invite recievee had.

It could be a huge coincidence, but it would be just that. A HUGE coincidence.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Drury18

I posted my thoughts about it shortly after she said it yesterday because I thought the timing was very beneficial to her to have this invite, state she denied it and then sort of fly under the radar that she said no so she must be townie. I didn't 100% say "I think it's false" yesterday but I certainly didn't sugarcoat the fact I felt that way and that events leading up to her stating she received an invite and claiming a denial were at the very least odd to me.

As more and more details emerged yesterday, the feeling got stronger as she could supply no new information about these invites and posted something contradictory to what another invite recievee had.

It could be a huge coincidence, but it would be just that. A HUGE coincidence.

I missed the contradiction. What did they say?

[Drury18]

Originally Posted by starseed

I missed the contradiction. What did they say?

In response to my questions about the invites (http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...stcount=1009):

Originally Posted by Drury18

For those who received invites:

Are you given a time limit to answer?

Are you given instructions that you cannot talk or post about the invite until you answer them?

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

No, there was nothing saying I had to respond before I could talk in the thread again. However, the message did say not to talk about the content of the invite, with a few exceptions which I did mention when I posted about my invite.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

24 hours for me too and my letter said I couldn't not talk about it until I made a decision.

What did your invite say starseed?

[Kjesse]

Of the accepted "group" claims:

GP_Matt was day 1, we found out seemingly right when it happened, though he claims to have gotten the invite a day before. He joined the Eternals.

ECF was day 2, (see post 737), joins the Eternals.

Starseed was revealed and responded in post 933. It seems he received the invite to the Guardians before the hammer dropped.

The purpose of this summary is to promote investigating those who have made invite claims but state they refused (in particular GS, but might as well put it all on the table).

Someone commented that if the offer was not accepted it would be made to someone else... who said that? It was someone who accepted. So far it seems one invite/day and no invites during night.

[Kjesse]

By 1 invite/day, I mean proven invites, which are really only proven by acceptance.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Drury18

What did your invite say starseed?

The message itself said that I was not to discuss the message at all. However, I asked Mazrim how much I could talk about, and he said it was up to me.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Something to consider if voting for me is we don't know what is going to happen with the eternals tomorrow. I received an auto vote against me today but will tomorrow bring two autovotes, one of none? If it keeps increasing then I will be dead sooner than later as will those who also join.

As I type this I realized that if a bunch of people join early then late in the game we will be auto killed which could trigger endless nights and a mafia victory.
If that is the case we are crazy to lynch me today and others should probably hold off joining these groups until tomorrow when we know more about it.

I can't believe how obvious to me you are just trying to escape again with your hide and that you just might do it. How in the hell are we not focused on this guy???
1. On day 1 when the votes were piling on him he was happy to pile on RD to get the pressure off him even though he said he knew him.
2. He joins the Eternals but can't give a good reason why.
3. It is a good bet he had a night kill given to him for joining and he used it on a townie, thus us losing two of our number instead of one.
4. He will jump on any voting bandwagon to take the attention away from himself.
5. He has admitted he joined the Eternals without knowing if they were aligned to the light or not.
6. He had a penalty vote against him to start day 2.

Sometimes the obvious is just that, the obvious. The fact that he is squirming like hell in his last post saying we would be stupid to vote for him shows tells us even more imo. Why would we not lynch a member of one of these groups, it will tell us more than some random kill. I can't believe some people believe this guy is town, go back and read his posts and see how often he contradicts himself or tries to shed attention elsewhere.

[squiggs96]

What I didn't like about when the vote went from GP to RD is that people went from voting to lynch him to saying we need to protect him. Pika is still in favour of his lynch

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by starseed

GS and Mrkajz - what power were you offered? How was it offered?

If I accepted I would have been given a one time night immunity (cant be killed).

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

If I accepted I would have been given a one time night immunity (cant be killed).

Why didn't you take, that would have been a pretty big value to the town.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

One he revealed it becomes 1/5 doc 4/5 mafia.

If he was just the doctor I would agree with you but he is doctor with a night kill. This decision is a huge swing in the game.

Hey GGG, could you explain your odds a bit better. Preface this by saying I do believe you are town, but...

I think with your odds you are suggesting that there are 5 people who would claim doctor, the doctor and 4 mafia members. Is that correct?

But how did you come to the conclusion there was 4 mafia members?

In the first game there was 25 players and 5 mafia members plus a serial killer.

In the next game there was 30 players and 8 mafia members.

I think we should be looking at least 5 bad guys (perhaps not all mafia) so I'm wondering why you chose 4. If I interpret your post right.