CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[hmmhmmcamo]

What about if we just don’t kill anyone on day one?

Based on the limited/zero knowledge we actually have right now, we’re most likely to pick off a town regardless of who we choose.

So why not keep our numbers higher and see what the first night brings us?

[Wood]

That's a really, really bad idea

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I have moved to a new position, where I spend all day working at various client sites and driving between them. If you felt the need, you could examine my posting history for the entire site since September 1, and it would confirm this.

I can appreciate this and the last thing I want is for this game to interfere with real life. Really I do and I hope you don't take this personal that is not my intent. And I apologize if this comes across as so. If I have crossed a line please let me know.

Originally Posted by Rathji

game, I screwed up pretty big the first day. I attempted to start the ball rolling on a vote that seemed a little off to me, just to see who would pile on. I don't need to repeat how badly that turned out.

You screwed up big the first day? You tossed an accusation and I by my own volition took the bull by the horns and got killed. but in the end townies won,
so the whole point is end game is it not? I don't want to meta-game but there is life after death.

Originally Posted by Rathji

first day, you can't KNOW that someone is scum. You can guess and you will likely be wrong.
What you can do is ensure that you can get something from the voting, however slight

Yes and also from non-voting true? And I took your 180 as my red light.

Originally Posted by Rathji

I said, I will be voting tonight, but I need to review the stuff that has come up today, since when I skim things on my phone, it doesn't really process the same way as it does on a PC.

Appreciate your busy lifestyle(respect) but either nut up or shut up.

I'm still gonna play like I said peck peck peck till something sticks.
(Respect) but you are Mafia you sneaky bastage.

[hmmhmmcamo]

Originally Posted by Wood

That's a really, really bad idea

ya, if you're mafia

[GGG]

Originally Posted by hmmhmmcamo

What about if we just don’t kill anyone on day one?

Based on the limited/zero knowledge we actually have right now, we’re most likely to pick off a town regardless of who we choose.

So why not keep our numbers higher and see what the first night brings us?

This is a terrible idea. We learn nothing that way. All that happens is one of us dies and we are back to day 1 again. I suppose some people get to use their powers but we are still better of lunching someone.

I don't know if this is obvious beginner mafia, or just terrible town.

[Rathji]

Not enough to go on for me to be overly excited about voting for bizaro or squiggs.

The only person whose actions have made me go wtf on more than one occasion is GGG.

1) He kicks off the name reveal, which can only serve one purpose, to identify abilities. Sure they are somewhat random, but does it gives the mafia a little to go on as far as picking targets. He even tries to reassure us that the characters and abilities have nothing to do with alignment, but doesn't point out that the flavour of the ability has everything to do with the character. The mafia has the ability to compare abilities with each other and have likely figured this out for sure.

2) Choosing squigggs because he hadn't revealed his character yet wasn't a huge thing by itself, but if mafia can pick someone 'almost at random' that isnt one of them, it seems like it might be a valid plan.

3) This detailed post on mafia behaviour was just off.

Originally Posted by GGG

If Bizaro is scum, the mafia in this game have played terribly. At least one of them should have came in here and voted for Baxter Renegade as the other inactive or started a vote based on a random number generator. Why would a mafia member wait until the band wagon is almost done to try to stop it. It doesn't make sense. The good news is if Bizaro is mafia we are in for a short game and a town victory.

The mafias behaviour so far in the Bizaro vote has been to go along with the crowd and blend in and let consensus lynch a townie. So why I am going against the group? I don't believe that I should ever vote for a person I believe is town.

I have read it a few times and can't really figure out what he is saying or what basis he is using for his logic. Again, by itself doesn't do much, but it did make me question what he was trying to do with the post.



4) He thought I was suspicious! Actually this doesn't really mean much of anything at this point. I think GGG is more suspicious than everyone else, but when you have nothing to go on, you can really start to grasp at the minor things.

Vote: GGG

[hmmhmmcamo]

Originally Posted by GGG

This is a terrible idea. We learn nothing that way. All that happens is one of us dies and we are back to day 1 again. I suppose some people get to use their powers but we are still better of lunching someone.

I don't know if this is obvious beginner mafia, or just terrible town.

Take it as terrible town then. I can't see how anyone playing as mafia would suggest not voting for anyone because they actually have information to base their votes on.

But explain why it's so terrible? Statistically we will have more town after day one if we don't kill anyone than if we do. Last time, what game changing info came out of day one other than the town jumping to all sorts of conclusions that were all wrong? plus the role reveal...plus Timbo getting iced...

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by GGG

Yes and also from non-voting true? And I took your 180 as my red light.

Of course, if you see something that is drastically different than the way someone posts, then it should be a flag for you. I know the last game, it was a major indicator to me on at least one occasion.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by hmmhmmcamo

Take it as terrible town then. I can't see how anyone playing as mafia would suggest not voting for anyone because they actually have information to base their votes on.

But explain why it's so terrible? Statistically we will have more town after day one if we don't kill anyone than if we do. Last time, what game changing info came out of day one other than the town jumping to all sorts of conclusions that were all wrong? plus the role reveal...plus Timbo getting iced...

Is is a bad idea because the only way mafia get killed is by town lynching. If you skip a lynch you give them a free night of kills without any chance of one of them dying.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Rathji

1) He kicks off the name reveal, which can only serve one purpose, to identify abilities. Sure they are somewhat random, but does it gives the mafia a little to go on as far as picking targets. He even tries to reassure us that the characters and abilities have nothing to do with alignment, but doesn't point out that the flavour of the ability has everything to do with the character. The mafia has the ability to compare abilities with each other and have likely figured this out for sure.

This is what I was trying to articulate earlier, but failed at. I figured that there are characters that have some quirks in it. Chu wasn't concerned much with alignment, but more with special powers.

[Kjesse]

Originally Posted by hmmhmmcamo

.....

But explain why it's so terrible? Statistically we will have more town after day one if we don't kill anyone than if we do. Last time, what game changing info came out of day one other than the town jumping to all sorts of conclusions that were all wrong? plus the role reveal...plus Timbo getting iced...

First, the town lynching has a chance of hitting scum.... maybe 25%. No lynch= no chance, which means, guaranteed scum lead going into day 2.

Second, it is the information about voting and the wagons which become useful as time goes on, it allows the town to discern behaviour and patterns. No lynch on first night = less information for later, when it becomes even more important.

Think of it like this: if you do not lynch on the first day, there is no analyzing of the train votes on day 2. Practically, if you hit a scum on day 1, you can try to see who was legitimately on board and who was avoiding, or jumped on to avoid future suspision. If you hit town, you can look at who was promoting the lynch and the order in which it happened and why.

Every scum knows who is town. That's the nature of the game.

[Kjesse]

I don't know if the proper term is wagon or train... anyway, I use both.

I don't know how to read hmmhmmcamo's suggestion, its almost like the recent two posts so close together naming Rathji that you just have to chalk it up to something other than being mafia.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Not enough to go on for me to be overly excited about voting for bizaro or squiggs.

The only person whose actions have made me go wtf on more than one occasion is GGG.

1) He kicks off the name reveal, which can only serve one purpose, to identify abilities. Sure they are somewhat random, but does it gives the mafia a little to go on as far as picking targets. He even tries to reassure us that the characters and abilities have nothing to do with alignment, but doesn't point out that the flavour of the ability has everything to do with the character. The mafia has the ability to compare abilities with each other and have likely figured this out for sure.

2) Choosing squigggs because he hadn't revealed his character yet wasn't a huge thing by itself, but if mafia can pick someone 'almost at random' that isnt one of them, it seems like it might be a valid plan.

3) This detailed post on mafia behaviour was just off.

I have read it a few times and can't really figure out what he is saying or what basis he is using for his logic. Again, by itself doesn't do much, but it did make me question what he was trying to do with the post.



4) He thought I was suspicious! Actually this doesn't really mean much of anything at this point. I think GGG is more suspicious than everyone else, but when you have nothing to go on, you can really start to grasp at the minor things.

Vote: GGG

I must be terrible at explaining myself about the voting pattern or way off because it seems everyone has missed what I was saying.

3) Basically I am trying to decide which voting position causes the least suspicion. If you vote first you create a clear accusation that is traced back to you. Once someone gets 6 or more votes on every one on after looks to be just following along. Mafia members don't want to be seen as initatiators of actions or as followers. So where do you vote if you are mafia. My position is you try to get in early but not too early so looking at the 3/4 and maybe 5 spots of the first vote should net us a mafia member.

1) name reveal. There is no connection, what part of random number generator don't people understand. I think Mazrim wrote that it was easy to fit flavour in afterwards. You just take an attribute of the character and shoehorn in the role. Read Mazrims first post it makes this pretty clear.

Anyone trying to guess abilities based on attributes needs to stop now. It's not there yet people seem to keep suggesting it. This is going to be very bad for the town if it continues.

2) agreed, almost random voting will allow a mafia person to pick an innocent guy, this is true regardless of the method the first vote is cast as any type of random selection is subject to rigging.

4) I never know how to take the revenge type vote although yours doesn't really fall in the category as you do present some logic although flawed along with it

[hmmhmmcamo]

OK I'm dumb...shutting up now.

[Baxter Renegade]

Some interesting things are coming out that have my gears spinning. The Formulate/Timbo combo of both voting Rathji is interesting and makes me wonder if they planned this in their chat but mistakenly posted at the same time? I wonder how quickly one of these would have been ninja edited if that was allowed? This could be a stretch and pure coincidence, but if we did lynch one of them and they came up mafia, Day 2's lynch would be an easy choice and would likely net us 2 in a row.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Of course, if you see something that is drastically different than the way someone posts, then it should be a flag for you. I know the last game, it was a major indicator to me on at least one occasion.

Did I actually post that, the quote you quoted doesn't link to me posting that line.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by Delgar

First, the town lynching has a chance of hitting scum.... maybe 25%. No lynch= no chance, which means, guaranteed scum lead going into day 2.

Second, it is the information about voting and the wagons which become useful as time goes on, it allows the town to discern behaviour and patterns. No lynch on first night = less information for later, when it becomes even more important.

Think of it like this: if you do not lynch on the first day, there is no analyzing of the train votes on day 2. Practically, if you hit a scum on day 1, you can try to see who was legitimately on board and who was avoiding, or jumped on to avoid future suspision. If you hit town, you can look at who was promoting the lynch and the order in which it happened and why.

Every scum knows who is town. That's the nature of the game.

I was about to post exactly the italicized. We've seen the theories on mafia pile-ons, but it's impossible to confirm unless we get the cardflip of either a piler or a pilee. No lynch and we're in the same position tomorrow down a townie. Granted, with the potenital for a little added info from night actions, but we get those during the night after a lynch anyways.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

As I said in the OP, your character is not necessarily indicative of role or alignment, so there should be no fear over revealing your character.

Everyone please read this post again.

[Kjesse]

Originally Posted by hmmhmmcamo

OK I'm dumb...shutting up now.

No, you're not dumb. When you first posted the idea, I was like, MAFIA! Then I thought about it more and I could see how someone could go down that path of reasoning. A passive town is a dead town though, I think. The mafia will get it right every time in their kills, the town is going to hit the wrong target more than once in every game... to use that as a means for not shooting... is certain death over time.

At least now you are posting....

[Oling_Roachinen]

unvote

FALCON PUNCH!!!

Vote: squiggs96

His thought process just doesn't make sense for me. He doesn't reveal who he is at first because he believes that characters have abilities that relate to their traits, he confirmed this just again. But if that was his actual concern he should have been vocal about it from the beginning before the doctor/cop had a chance of getting revealed - if this was his actual thought. Instead he took the time to google players as though he was trying to find out powers (something I think the mafia would be the first to get on board). If he honestly was concerned about revealing roles and was a town he should have spoken up real quick in my opinion instead of trying to find out powers.

With the assumption he is mafia things make a bit more sense to me. He doesn't want to reveal anything before confirming it with other mafia members, which means if he is mafia we should be looking at the last 5 or so players to reveal as well as potential (again IF he is mafia). This would actually explain his delay in revealing.

I think it also gives us some information with GGG if squiggs is mafia. His vote for squiggs is because he didn't reveal himself and all it takes is a fluff post for everything to change really. If squiggs does reveal mafia I don't think that GGG's vote for him was actually genuine. I would also be suspicious of starseed who turned the vote to the other inactive players as well as the last couple revealers. To me that's a lot of information with a reveal on day 1.

There's also posts like this from him:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

No one has defended the lovable pika yet, and you'd expect at least one mafia member to do so if I were mafia.

Mafia isn't going to be vocal to defend him if he ends up mafia, that's obvious. What they will do is be subtle in trying to get votes away from him, which I think may have happened.

It's also all moot if he ends up town, which I want to be clear, but if he is town I don't like this aspect of his game either:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

If the three who currently have their votes on me (Delgar, mrkajz44, dissentowner), then I'd put each of them on my current watch list for mafia.

If you are town and people vote for you, you should explain why they are wrong and not get so defensive to accuse them as mafia. Going with the "anyone who votes for me is mafia" strategy is not a good strategy if you are town.

To be clear, with the exception of that last paragraph this is pretty much all moot if he reveals town.