PC leadership race

[Antithesis]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

8300 or so in 2009. Let's compare a brand new party with no seats in the legislature with a party that has been in power for 4 decades however.

I don't think any comparison is being sought or made, but rather an explanation for lower voter turnout being offered. I could well be wrong though.

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Slava

How many votes in the Wildrose leadership a few years ago?

We get it, we get it. You have a crush on Danielle Smith.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Slava

How many votes in the Wildrose leadership a few years ago? I think people are just bored with politics and apathetic. The percentage of the population who actually has a political membership is incredibly small.

Yes, but the rapid decline is noteworthy and very troubling for this party. Nothing is worse than an enthusiasm gap between your most ardent supporters and your rival's.

Prentice has 6 months to truly turn it around or they're DOA next election. He's going to have to do some pretty drastic things to do that, and I'm skeptical he will - he just seems way too cautious a politician.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

8300 or so in 2009. Let's compare a brand new party with no seats in the legislature with a party that has been in power for 4 decades however.

Originally Posted by Jacks

In the 2009 Wildrose leadership election they had no seats and 7% of the vote, what comparison are you possibly hoping to make here?

It seemed appropriate to compare the official opposition to the government. What other party in Alberta would make any sense? It's weird, but surely I can mention the party without meaning that I'm taking a shot against them.

I was just pointing out that I think people are tired of politics and politicians. As I mentioned the number of people who hold membership to any party on any level is
tiny.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

It seemed appropriate to compare the official opposition to the government. What other party in Alberta would make any sense? It's weird, but surely I can mention the party without meaning that I'm taking a shot against them.

Seems to me that it would be much more appropriate to compare the numbers to their own recent leadership contests. The number of voters seems to be dropping in half each time.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Seems to me that it would be much more appropriate to compare the numbers to their own recent leadership contests. The number of voters seems to be dropping in half each time.

Sure but there are a lot of factors. Everyone knew Prentice would win. People are not terribly excited when it's a known outcome. Surely some of the decline is peoples disillusionment with the party as well. But I believe that there is also a factor of people just disillusioned with politics in general. Both the Liberals and Wildrose had roughly 8000 people vote. The NDP has a leadership race right now, and I doubt they top that number. The Alberta Party had like 250 people out for their leadership a couple years ago. It just makes me wonder if numbers are down across the board?

[Jacks]

The Wildrose has no real leadership election history to make a comparison.

The NDP acclaimed Pannu in 2000 and Mason in 2004 so it's pretty hard to make any recent comparisions there either.

You could compare to the Liberals since they have some relatively recent numbers.
2004 Taft total votes approx 2750
2008 Swann total votes approx 4575
2011 Sherman total votes approx 8640
Their numbers seem to be almost doubling each time.

Edit: I should add that none of the other parties have had a leadership candidate even close to as high profile as Prentice. Former federal cabinet minister holding top portfolio's such as Indian Affairs, Industry and Environment.

[getbak]

What percentage of eligible party members voted? That should be the more important question because party membership numbers change. We know that a lot of the people who voted in 2011 were not necessarily PC supporters, but they bought memberships just to be able to choose the Premier.

The last three leadership elections were all hotly contested and there was a lot of membership selling from all sides trying to boost their candidate's numbers. This time around, the result seemed like a foregone conclusion, which always leads to lower turn-outs.


There are 2.39 million eligible voters in Alberta, so the 23,386 people who voted in this represent 1% of all eligible voters in the province.


This says that between 1 and 2% of Canadians are ongoing members of a political party: http://www.mapleleafweb.com/features...ion-and-issues, so if anything, today's numbers are a more realistic total of actual PC party members than the past three times the PCs elected a new leader and stuffed the ballots along the way.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by getbak

We know that a lot of the people who voted in 2011 were not necessarily PC supporters, but they bought memberships just to be able to choose the Premier.

While that is true the numbers were still way down from the previous race in 2006. If anything the large number of outsiders voting should have inflated the total votes.

Originally Posted by getbak

This says that between 1 and 2% of Canadians are ongoing members of a political party: http://www.mapleleafweb.com/features...ion-and-issues, so if anything, today's numbers are a more realistic total of actual PC party members than the past three times the PCs elected a new leader and stuffed the ballots along the way.

I don't have any hard numbers to back me up but I would assume that membership for any party would usually spike around the time of a leadership race. Not sure that using stats for ongoing members is the best comparison.

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Yes, but the rapid decline is noteworthy and very troubling for this party. Nothing is worse than an enthusiasm gap between your most ardent supporters and your rival's.

Prentice has 6 months to truly turn it around or they're DOA next election. He's going to have to do some pretty drastic things to do that, and I'm skeptical he will - he just seems way too cautious a politician.

Hopefully he does something actually exciting. He has a chance to make a drastic change in Alberta. The economy is on the up swing and there is some money in the bank. I would like to see him do something to put Alberta on the map. Our own version of the great pyramids.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

We get it, we get it. You have a crush on Danielle Smith.

You have it all wrong! Dion has a crush on Danielle Smith

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Slava

Sure but there are a lot of factors. Everyone knew Prentice would win. People are not terribly excited when it's a known outcome. Surely some of the decline is peoples disillusionment with the party as well. But I believe that there is also a factor of people just disillusioned with politics in general. Both the Liberals and Wildrose had roughly 8000 people vote. The NDP has a leadership race right now, and I doubt they top that number. The Alberta Party had like 250 people out for their leadership a couple years ago. It just makes me wonder if numbers are down across the board?

I think it's the premier was already picked. In this situation where you pay to vote and have to work to get registered it makes sense that the turnout was low compared to the last 3 where there were tight 2 way races with the terrible system letting the 3rd person win. But these races which had real differences between where the province would go mattered to all Albertans. So of course you had more people joining to vote.

I sat this one out after voting the last two mainly because I am lazy.

[killer_carlson]

I'm curious if there will still be an investigation into who sent the packages leaking Lukazuk info.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I'm curious if there will still be an investigation into who sent the packages leaking Lukazuk info.

Yup, and they've interviewed Raj about what he knew.

http://liberalopposition.com/stateme...impersonation/

[Jacks]

IMO Prentice should spend the next few months cleaning up the mess that is the PC Party and then seek a mandate from the people.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/09...ts-new-agenda/

Alberta Premier-designate Jim Prentice gave more signals Monday he’s looking for a fresh start for the Tories after winning the party’s leadership on the weekend, saying he’s contemplating a throne speech this fall to lay out the government’s new agenda.

Mr. Prentice said he has not asked any MLAs to step down for either himself or any potential star candidates. But he would not rule out appointing individuals who are not currently MLAs to the new cabinet, which will be sworn in at the same time as he becomes premier.

Seriously? if the talent pool is that shallow then call an election.

[Slava]

Why do I have a feeling that when Harper did this you were fine with it? It's interesting to watch the reaction to the provincial PC's at this point and the CPC when they have done similar things. It's amusing to watch people pile on against Prentice when if he were a federal candidate the same people would openly support him.

[killer_carlson]

Slava do you not draw a distinction between Harper's circumstances in appointing Fortier and the provincial PC's?

Harper had no MPs from Canada's second largest city. That urban area needed a voice in caucus. The equivalent would be if Prentice had no MLAs from Edmonton.

Here he does have choices. 50 of them who supported him and from all across the province. Pick some. If the bench strength is so poor, then call an election and tell voters to elect higher quality candidates.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

Why do I have a feeling that when Harper did this you were fine with it? It's interesting to watch the reaction to the provincial PC's at this point and the CPC when they have done similar things. It's amusing to watch people pile on against Prentice when if he were a federal candidate the same people would openly support him.

Nobody is criticizing Joe Clark or Pierre Trudeau for appointing Senators to their cabinets either. But, as usual Slava, deflect, deflect, deflect. While it was unusual, there is precedent for what Harper did and the Senate is a legitimate component of the federal government. Is there precedent (particularly in Alberta history) for what Prentice is considering? But more importantly, what does it say about his opinion of both his own party's MLA's and the people who elected them?

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Harper had no MPs from Canada's second largest city. That urban area needed a voice in caucus. The equivalent would be if Prentice had no MLAs from Edmonton.

Not at all like having no MLAs from Edmonton. (~1/3 of the constituents), for that to apply, Harper would have to have no MPs from all of Ontario.

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Not at all like having no MLAs from Edmonton. (~1/3 of the constituents), for that to apply, Harper would have to have no MPs from all of Ontario.

Obviously not very accurate and completely different circumstances, which is what Killer was trying to get at in the first place.