Subban arbitration UPDATE: Signs 8 year/72 million deal

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Mikka? he was doing it for the Flames in his prime, it wasn't for him we would not be in the playoffs.

It wasn't just him though. And more to the point, Kiprusoff alone would not have guaranteed playoff berths for all thirty teams.

[AcGold]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yeah, no. I don't think there is a single player in the world that has that ability.

Crosby, Kipper in his prime, Lundqvist of this era. How many players like Subban are there? PK might get shutdown in the playoffs from time to time but regular season people move out of his way but your taking it out of context anyways, obviously there are other factors I was just implying he is a regular season game changer

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Lol. And you made such a big deal out of me "making things up" when if you are half as smart as you think you could have easily put together what I was saying. Come on man your really reaching here and you know it.

In what way reaching? Do you think Subban is pushing for less than $8.5 m on a long term deal? Do you challenge the supposition that his proposal is likely higher than Weber's AAV? I think it is likely that Subban's camp to be making their case from Weber's body of work.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Remember that the cap has gone up since Karlsson signed his deal, too. By about 7%. That means a $7M AAV now is comparable.

Those long multi-year deals had future cap figures built in. If Subban signed a 7 year deal like Karlsson, a fair distribution would be a salary of under $7M salary this season and maybe the next, $7M in other years, and more than that in later years that would bring his cap hit down to Karlsson levels.

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Another comparable is Keith... His contract is tough to compare, as it is a back-diving deal under the old CBA and Kieth was also 27 when it came into effect. So it would be all UFA years. The first 8 years of his deal have an AAV of just over $7.2M. Accounting for the cap increase since then, that would be about $8.4M today. So that would be the upper end of what Subban should expect IMO.

Quibbling over a few hundred thousand per season seems pretty silly with these numbers and terms being thrown around.

Like you said, Keith's contract is tough to compare so he's not a comparable. Anyhow, you still need to manage the cap and we aren't talking about a few hundred thousand dollars per season here. We see that no matter how high the cap goes, good teams still run into cap trouble. There's a significant difference between paying Crosby and Malkin $18.2M combined and Chicago paying $21M combined for Toews and Kane.

[Badgers Nose]

I really don't get what Montreal's concern is. Pay him the 7.5 he is worth and make sure there is no NMC. A player such as Subban will always be tradable.

The fact that teams actually want Dion is proof.

And I don't see the comparable being Dion. At this point in his career he is way ahead of where Dion was at the same age.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Actually, the Patrick Kane comparison is poor because you are forgetting context. Kane doesn't get $10.5 million by himself. He gets it because of the "twin effect" with Toews. So unless the Habs are actually looking to sign Subban's defensive partner to a similar contract because the pair are so important to the franchise, then the comparison is not particularly valid.

You completely missed the point. I was comparing them in the sense that they are both elite level players who's games are said to not be fully rounded but both are so vital to their respective teams success that there is no way you could let either go. A bit of an overpayment is fine to keep them. Whether or not they have a "twin" doesn't change how important they are to their respective teams. You need to lock guys like this up.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by AcGold

Crosby, Kipper in his prime, Lundqvist of this era...

Well, the Rangers missed in 2010. That pretty much kills it for him.

Do you think each of those players on his own would have pulled the Sabres, Panthers, and Oilers into the playoffs? I'm not even sure that one of them could have gotten the Flames there.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

In what way reaching? Do you think Subban is pushing for less than $8.5 m on a long term deal? Do you challenge the supposition that his proposal is likely higher than Weber's AAV? I think it is likely that Subban's camp to be making their case from Weber's body of work.

I'm sure the new landscape of contracts and the new cap play a much bigger role in negotiations than does Shea Webers play. I'm sure PK Subbans Norris trophy and 2014 NHL playoff performance play a much bigger role than Shea Webers play.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by FAN

Like you said, Keith's contract is tough to compare so he's not a comparable.

The contract's hard to compare, but they're comparable players.

Originally Posted by FAN

Anyhow, you still need to manage the cap and we aren't talking about a few hundred thousand dollars per season here.

If the offer was $7.2M AAV as reported, and Subban wants $8M AAV as reported, and the deal is to be had somewhere between those values...what would you call the differemce?

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Salt Water Cowboy #10

I'd say the most comparable player to PK is Dion. A similar deal would make sense. But for a year or two is say PK ends up with 7.5 to 8 from the arbitration.

Umm NO.

PK can skate circles around Phaneuf and he actually hits the net.

Phaneuf is the most overpaid Dman in the league.

[savemedrzaius]

Subban is worth a minimum of 8 mill per year. It's not just his play, but he has a great attitude too. He is a lot more interesting than 95% of the players in the NHL. He has the ability to attract new fans to the game.

[AcGold]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Well, the Rangers missed in 2010. That pretty much kills it for him.

Do you think each of those players on his own would have pulled the Sabres, Panthers, and Oilers into the playoffs? I'm not even sure that one of them could have gotten the Flames there.

Panthers maybe. Look, don't take it so literally. In my opinion Subban gets the Habs in every year, if he's not on the team they are drastically worse.

Dynamic game changers are rare, Weber and Doughty might be more consistent but Subban can be a bull in a China shop like Iginla was for 2 years and people actually move out of his way. That's worth 8.5 because in the regular season it gives a huge advantage when other players are less willing to risk injury.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Doughty and Pietrangelo are interesting comparisons for Subban, but I wouldn't use them. Both are better than Subban but that doesn't mean Subban shouldn't get more than they get. First off, both players didn't sign bridge contracts like Subban did, they both got their big deals right after their ELCs. If they would have signed short deals first, they'd both be making way more now, especially Doughty. DD would get a Toews/Kane deal for sure if he signed this summer and Pietrangelo would get at least 8.5m as well. Doughty also signed 3 years ago and the cap has gone up and there's a new CBA to boot. Pietrangelo signed right before the lockout, before the landscape changed. If Montreal wanted, they could have signed Subban to a similar deal when they had the chance. Probably could have got him for 5-5.5m on a long term deal but they wanted to sign him to a 'show me' contract. Show them he did, now it's time to pay up. Really, the main difference is St. Louis and LA have better management, but it doesn't change Subban's market value now, which is $8-9m.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by AcGold

Panthers maybe. Look, don't take it so literally. In my opinion Subban gets the Habs in every year, if he's not on the team they are drastically worse.

Then maybe you shouldn't say things that you don't really mean. I agree with you that the Canadiens are dramatically worse without Subban.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

...If Montreal wanted, they could have signed Subban to a similar deal when they had the chance. Probably could have got him for 5-5.5m on a long term deal but they wanted to sign him to a 'show me' contract. Show them he did, now it's time to pay up. Really, the main difference is St. Louis and LA have better management, but it doesn't change Subban's market value now, which is $8-9m.

On an open market, Subban's value is most definitely in the $8.0–9.0 m. range. But the market is NOT open, and that in itself WILL affect what he can expect to earn. Hence why I have suggested that something between $7.0-8.0 is probably a good number for both sides on a long-term deal.

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by codynw

Cool, you named a bunch of good defenceman that were/are average sized but only named a couple big ones. That should help get your point across.

Originally Posted by fotze

Touche. Got me there.

Cody,
Which big defensemen should have been included with that group?

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

On an open market, Subban's value is most definitely in the $8.0–9.0 m. range. But the market is NOT open, and that in itself WILL affect what he can expect to earn. Hence why I have suggested that something between $7.0-8.0 is probably a good number for both sides on a long-term deal.

I agree he's probably worth around 7m on his last two RFA years. However, If Montreal wants to buy any UFA years it will cost them more than that, likely 9-10m depending on how long they want to sign him for.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I actually think Montreal is being smart here. Subban is a great offensive defensemen, but so what? Those players don't win Stanley Cups. Great all around defensemen like Doughty and Weber and Chara help you win Stanley Cups. Subban has not yet proven he's at their level, and frankly his style suggests he never will. He needs to play tighter with less risk taking, but that will affect his offensive output. He may end up as the best offensive defenseman in the league, but will that be enough to mask some of his defensive deficiencies?

I get that market would overpay Subban, but that doesn't mean the Canadiens should. The Canadiens will hold his RFA rights again next year, so they'll still be able to trade him for a very nice haul later on. I wouldn't offer him more than $7 million a year if I was Montreal and it sounds like that's about as high as they'll go. Overpaying him because other teams will is what teams with bad management do. See the Maple Leafs.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I actually think Montreal is being smart here. Subban is a great offensive defensemen, but so what? Those players don't win Stanley Cups. Great all around defensemen like Doughty and Weber and Chara help you win Stanley Cups. Subban has not yet proven he's at their level, and frankly his style suggests he never will. He needs to play tighter with less risk taking, but that will affect his offensive output. He may end up as the best offensive defenseman in the league, but will that be enough to mask some of his defensive deficiencies?

I get that market would overpay Subban, but that doesn't mean the Canadiens should. The Canadiens will hold his RFA rights again next year, so they'll still be able to trade him for a very nice haul later on. I wouldn't offer him more than $7 million a year if I was Montreal and it sounds like that's about as high as they'll go. Overpaying him because other teams will is what teams with bad management do. See the Maple Leafs.

It won't look so smart when Subban insists on a 1 year deal next summer.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Or maybe their goal is to be forced into trading their best player?