Subban arbitration UPDATE: Signs 8 year/72 million deal

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

My guess is Subban gets the $ but not the term. 8m x 3-5 years.

The arbitrator cannot hand out anything longer than a two-year contract. And since I think even that is the team's choice, and Montreal has asked for a one-year deal (so he's still RFA when it expires), that is what it will be.

A one-year, $8 million deal is a big win for Subban, as it starts next year's negotiation right in the range he wants.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

My guess is Subban gets the $ but not the term. 8m x 3-5 years.

Not in arbitration... team elected arbitration awards are for one or two years (and the Habs elected for one year).

[ForeverFlameFan]

Forgot about that. Thanks guys.

Yes, 8m for one year wouldn't be a bad deal. Anything under that the Habs win.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Forgot about that. Thanks guys.

Yes, 8m for one year wouldn't be a bad deal. Anything under that the Habs win.

May win the battle, but not the war.

[Finger Cookin]

Nice story on The Score's website about 3 past arbitration hearings.

http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/547156

[Tron_fdc]

Is he open to offer sheets if he signs a 1 or 2 year deal and then goes to RFA?

[Textcritic]

^
The Canadiens should not have to endure criticism for their instance on a bridge deal. Subban had simply not accomplished enough at the time for justifying the inherent risk; it was the responsible thing to do.

Of course this looks bad in hindsight, and I think the Canadiens have erred in trying to get him at such a bargain. But there is a sea of very good top-four defensemen who looked like Subban did in 2011–12, but never managed to take the next step.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by fotze

The 16 defencemen chosen before PK in the 2007 draft:

Thomas Hickey
Karl Alzner
Keaton Ellerby
Ryan McDonagh
Kevin Shattenkirk
Alex Plante
Ian Cole
Jonathon Blum
Brendan Smith
Nick Petrecki
Nick Ross
T.J. Brennan
Taylor Ellington
Josh Godfrey
Tommy Cross
Kevin Marshall

Every single one of them is taller than PK except Shattenkirk (the next best defencemen) and Hickey (who is the same height). Big = Good

That's your conclusion? Good lord. Your anti-obsession with size is pretty silly. Here are the defensemen drafted before Shea Weber:

Suter
Coburn
Phaneuf
Seabrook
Burns
Stuart
Belle
Richmond
Egener
Klein
Ramholt
Smaby
Carle

10 of the 13 are smaller than Weber. If teams were in fact blindly drafting size over talent, wouldn't that apply here too? Why did they draft smaller defensemen before Weber?

Originally Posted by fotze

Ya, I couldn't remember where he was drafted, then was shocked to see so many defencemen drafted before him. Wonder what it was that so many teams missed. Not sure if it was the eternal quest to find another Chris Pronger. But it is weird that the best defencemen out to the top 16 were the two shortest guys.

They didn't 'miss' anything. Some guys develop more (and less) than expected. The draft is not an exact science, and defensemen are even more unpredictable. Subban was the 17th Dman taken. Weber was the 14th. Duncan Keith as 16th. And there are other examples.

The more sensible conclusion here, IMO, is that there is an element of uncertainty in drafting defensemen - a very large one.

[FlamesAddiction]

Correct me if I am wrong, but for some reason I recall Subban was player that fell in the draft, but he was in fact ranked quite high by a lot of sources. There were questions over his attitude and dedication at the time (but I think it is fair to say that he matured quite nicely as a professional).

[Major Major]

criticism for the bridge deal, no. But a realization that if you set the precedent for paying a player what he's worth, then you need to pay the player what he's worth. The fact this is going to arb is a huge botch. under the current cap climate, subban is worth 9m/8. Why you'd risk losing this guy for nothing is beyond me.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

...10 of the 13 are smaller than Weber. If teams were in fact blindly drafting size over talent, wouldn't that apply here too? Why did they draft smaller defensemen before Weber?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall that Weber was MUCH smaller in his draft year, and that this was the reason why he did not go until the second round. Didn't he have a huge growth spurt the year or two after he was drafted?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall that Weber was MUCH smaller in his draft year, and that this was the reason why he did not go until the second round. Didn't he have a huge growth spurt the year or two after he was drafted?

Don't know when he 'grew' but I do remember he was very big at the WJCs

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

But Montreal is still going to go into that room and tell PK all of the reasons that they think he's awful.

Arbitration destroys player/team relationships.

I think PK is a free agent in 2016.

Not necessarily. The Predators did not attempt to cut Shea Weber down in their arbitration hearing specifically because they did want to keep him long term. Of course, the result was an NHL record award, so YMMV.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Don't know when he 'grew' but I do remember he was very big at the WJCs

Yes, it turns out that I am wrong. It serves me right for foolishly trusting the internet.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Major Major

criticism for the bridge deal, no. But a realization that if you set the precedent for paying a player what he's worth, then you need to pay the player what he's worth. The fact this is going to arb is a huge botch. under the current cap climate, subban is worth 9m/8. Why you'd risk losing this guy for nothing is beyond me.

They're not really risking anything.

After the arbitrator rules, they'll have him under contract for next season. After next season, if they don't get him re-signed long-term, he'll still be an RFA. He can accept an offer sheet, but the Habs will likely match any offer sheet, so it's not really a huge concern for them.

The only potential concern is if Subban decides he has been mistreated by the Habs and elects to sign a one-year deal next year and go to UFA in 2016. Even if that happens, they have him for two more seasons and will be able to move him for a big return at the deadline in 2016.

[AcGold]

You might something something???

[codynw]

Originally Posted by fotze

Oh please, I was just pointing something I noticed out for this particular draft. Wondering aloud if that was one possible reason.
Obsession, WTF are you talking about? If there are two players with equal skill of differing size, you take the bigger one 10 times out of 10.

Just wondering if the natural tendency of the eye to be drawn to the bigger opposing person has an impact, not making any conclusions. I do it, at the prospect camp I couldn't take my eyes off of Hunter Smith and Keegan Kanzig, people who are 6' blend in.

Was just looking for a trend.

Just interesting that exactly 6 foot. Giant top notch defence are almost as rare as 5'10".

Ray Bourque 6'00
Paul Coffey 6'00
Phil Housley 5'10
Denis Potvin 6'00
Bobby Orr 6'00
Scott Stevens 6'00
Brad Park 6'00
Gary Suter 6'00
Steve Duchesne 5'11
Mathieu Schneider 5'11
Mark Howe 5'11
Scott Niedermayer 6'00
Drew Doughty 6'00
Erik Karlsson 6'00
Mark Giordano 6'00

Sure there is Weber and Chara and Pronger

I'm not saying take the shorter guy, that would be ######ed.
jerk

Cool, you named a bunch of good defenceman that were/are average sized but only named a couple big ones. That should help get your point across.

[bubbsy]

what a gongshow this will be if they only do a 1 year deal out of this arbitration and then subban walks next summer.

habs better be careful on how they're handling their best player outside of carey price.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

what a gongshow this will be if they only do a 1 year deal out of this arbitration and then subban walks next summer.

habs better be careful on how they're handling their best player outside of carey price.

He can't walk next summer. He can either re-sign with the Habs or sign an offer sheet that the Habs will match.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by getbak

He can't walk next summer. He can either re-sign with the Habs or sign an offer sheet that the Habs will match.

right sorry, 2 years from now when he's a UFA, forgot about that. gongshow regardles should all this push subban to want to test free agency when he qualifies..