Tesla to build $35K Model 3 for 2017

[afc wimbledon]

nm

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by pylon

Battery packs are guaranteed for 8 yrs or 200k. They are expected to retain 80% of their capacity by that time.

Are they guaranteed to last 8 years with 80% range or just to be working! as if they won't guarantee the range it's a worthless offer! who the hell wants a car that works but has a 100 mile range!

[pylon]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Are they guaranteed to last 8 years with 80% range or just to be working! as if they won't guarantee the range it's a worthless offer! who the hell wants a car that works but has a 100 mile range!

They are expected to retain 80% of their range over the warranty period (8 years). Secondly, we have no clue what the cost and range of these battery packs will be in 8 years. By then, they could have double the range and only lose 10% of their power, and be half the price. And the cost of the battery pack isn't the only cost variable. In theory, a Tesla should have extremely low maintenance costs, as they have next to no moving parts. Also, how much will you spend on gas over the same 8 year span?

There are more altruistic reasons to own an electric car, than what you'll save at the pump. If that's all you care about, it is not a product for you. You might as well go spend 20k on a Honda Accord and be done with it. No matter how you slice it and dice it, there will be a massive premium on these vehicles for years to come.

And lastly, even if it only had a 100 mile range, 90% of people could do 90% of their driving without inconvenience. Very few people are commuting 160 kms a day.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by pylon

I hope Tesla opens a Calgary dealer. I will be the first guy in line with an application. They are the future, and everyone will be playing catch up within 15 years.

I'm pretty sure I've heard that they have plans to open one up here in the short term. Definitely before the Model 3 hits the market.

Old Dutch and I are going to find out what plot of land they have and start camping out now, then we will be the first to get Model 3's and will triumphantly drive them back to our street in Sunnyside, bearded and dirty but greeted as KINGS AMONG MEN.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

I'm pretty sure I've heard that they have plans to open one up here in the short term. Definitely before the Model 3 hits the market.

I asked this exact question at the showroom in Scottsdale and they said hopefully by 2015.

[Tyler]

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/service/calgary

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by pylon

They are expected to retain 80% of their range over the warranty period (8 years). Secondly, we have no clue what the cost and range of these battery packs will be in 8 years. By then, they could have double the range and only lose 10% of their power, and be half the price. And the cost of the battery pack isn't the only cost variable. In theory, a Tesla should have extremely low maintenance costs, as they have next to no moving parts. Also, how much will you spend on gas over the same 8 year span?

There are more altruistic reasons to own an electric car, than what you'll save at the pump. If that's all you care about, it is not a product for you. You might as well go spend 20k on a Honda Accord and be done with it. No matter how you slice it and dice it, there will be a massive premium on these vehicles for years to come.

And lastly, even if it only had a 100 mile range, 90% of people could do 90% of their driving without inconvenience. Very few people are commuting 160 kms a day.

In theory I should be rich and good looking, unfortunately life isn't lived in theory, and maintenance on a tesla will be through the roof, as it is on any 'luxury' car, trust me I run a SL 500, costs a fortune to keep on the road for no better reason than Mercedes thinks you can afford it.

Tesla says it expects the batteries to retain 80% of their life but I assume they arnt offering to warrantee that which, bearing in mind what a bunch of lying thieving rat bags car manufacturers are, means the batteries will never retain that life in the real world.

A car I can't drive to Calgary or Seattle and back with out refill problems is in reality useless, it means I have to own 2 cars in practise as I drive distance trips at least once a month, and I think most people under estimate how much they drive, which will negate the environmental reason for a Tesla in the first place.

[photon]

I think people overestimate how much they drive.

Of course the car won't be ideal for everyone. For a family that already has two cars having one electric and one gas might make more sense. A single person that doesn't drive distance trips (maybe they fly instead) an electric might make more sense. No one car is ever the ideal one for every situation.

Long term maintenance costs are something to consider but that's nothing new with cars. I've spent enough on repairs on my VW that I could have replaced the batteries on a Tesla a few times

[corporatejay]

I "need" an SUV as I have a young family so the convenience of a big trunk, big vehicle etc is necessary for weekend trips to the lake or mountains or day trips out of the city. But on a daily business I probably average 30kms and having a nice quiet car, that's fun to drive and I don't have to fill with gas is a good compliment. We are going to have a second vehicle anyway and I was think a BMW, a4 or IS anyway, this just seems cooler, more fun and hopefully the more successful they are the better the technology gets.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bossy22]

For us, we have two large vehicles. It would be nice to replace one with a Tesla. Make that the commuter obviously, and make the Truck the weekend/trip vehicle.

[combustiblefuel]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Are they guaranteed to last 8 years with 80% range or just to be working! as if they won't guarantee the range it's a worthless offer! who the hell wants a car that works but has a 100 mile range!

It would really honestly depend of how you care for the pack. I can see problems with people not caring for them. I know with Lithium nickel cobalt aluminum cells to extend life you should use only use 80% of its capacity and keep the batteries a 20% voltage sag when it is not in use. Lithium chemistry batteries need a sag when not in use as they actually degrade faster when they just sit there with a full charge. If your in a place that has harsh winters like Calgary and don't want to use your Tesla in the winter. You should keep the battery at 50% while in storage.



I think its also going to be a lot on how you are driving it as well. Stop and go on cells are murder. Another factor is your frequent use of It . Think of Batteries as a muscle . You use them alot you strain them out, same with the battery . The more you use them they more you strain them. I would guess with moderate use and propercare over the years the cells would last as Tesela says . If your consitanly trying to race around like a jackass and don't take care of them I would suspect you would see an 80% capacity rating after 5-6 years of use.

If you look at the data sheet off of Panosonic industrial site the Life Cycle Characteristics at 25 degrees Celsius it shows about 80% capacity after 300 cycles. A cycle is is considered a drop in voltage from 4.2v fresh off a charger charger to a lvc at 2v then charged back to 4.2v.
18650A Data sheet
http://www.panasonic.com/industrial/...-NCR18650A.pdf


Its kind of known that its Tesala's dirty little secret. You think a company is going to sell you a virtually maintenance free Vechile that will last a decade? No way. They could have Chosen A123 Systems 20amp prismatic pouch cells. A123 pouch cells will retain 90% of their capacity at 3000 cycles with 10c (200 amp) continuous rating and a 22c burst (450amp)burst.
A123 data sheet
http://ecomodder.com/imgs/a123_syste...data_sheet.pdf
resources: personal experience ,http://endless-sphere.com/forums/ Panosonic.com , http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/forums www.A123systems.com


Specific thread on costs.
http://www.teslamotors.com/it_IT/for...s-battery-life

[homestand]

I think there are at least 8 Model S Teslas in Calgary.

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by combustiblefuel

It would really honestly depend of how you care for the pack. I can see problems with people not caring for them. I know with Lithium nickel cobalt aluminum cells to extend life you should use only use 80% of its capacity and keep the batteries a 20% voltage sag when it is not in use. Lithium chemistry batteries need a sag when not in use as they actually degrade faster when they just sit there with a full charge. If your in a place that has harsh winters like Calgary and don't want to use your Tesla in the winter. You should keep the battery at 50% while in storage.



I think its also going to be a lot on how you are driving it as well. Stop and go on cells are murder. Another factor is your frequent use of It . Think of Batteries as a muscle . You use them alot you strain them out, same with the battery . The more you use them they more you strain them. I would guess with moderate use and propercare over the years the cells would last as Tesela says . If your consitanly trying to race around like a jackass and don't take care of them I would suspect you would see an 80% capacity rating after 5-6 years of use.

If you look at the data sheet off of Panosonic industrial site the Life Cycle Characteristics at 25 degrees Celsius it shows about 80% capacity after 300 cycles. A cycle is is considered a drop in voltage from 4.2v fresh off a charger charger to a lvc at 2v then charged back to 4.2v.
18650A Data sheet
http://www.panasonic.com/industrial/...-NCR18650A.pdf


Its kind of known that its Tesala's dirty little secret. You think a company is going to sell you a virtually maintenance free Vechile that will last a decade? No way. They could have Chosen A123 Systems 20amp prismatic pouch cells. A123 pouch cells will retain 90% of their capacity at 3000 cycles with 10c (200 amp) continuous rating and a 22c burst (450amp)burst.
A123 data sheet
http://ecomodder.com/imgs/a123_syste...data_sheet.pdf
resources: personal experience ,http://endless-sphere.com/forums/ Panosonic.com , http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/forums www.A123systems.com


Specific thread on costs.
http://www.teslamotors.com/it_IT/for...s-battery-life

Using that particular battery over the 18650A would have double the weight of the battery cells.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

200 miles is 330 km

I'd say the vast majority of Calgarians travel under 330 km a day. That's more than enough. 330 km is about 4 hours of driving. Who commutes that much on a daily basis? If you can only afford one car and travel all the time, this car is probably not for you.

330km is about enough to make it to Banff and back anyway.

Normally 200 miles is plenty and even overkill but when buying a car personally I need more if needed, what if you needed to drive to Edmonton for a last minute meeting? In no way would I want to stay there even an extra hour to recharge.

No good.

[combustiblefuel]

^^^ not double the weight. When you do the math you would add 1/3 of the original battery weight but you Double the C discharge/charge rates, a 100% safe and 6 times the life of them.

That's the trade off with evs tho.
I am sure they thought about it but the cost of them are substantially more. Who knows what Tesla will produce when they build the Gigafactory or who they partner with. Panosonic is weary of becoming partners as Its a 5 billion dollar project.

[pylon]

The other variable nobody seems to take into consideration in these calculations, is a cheaper aftermarket battery option in the future, trade in value (core value) of the battery pack, and what the cost of rebuilt batteries will be.

Also if you get 10 years out of your Tesla and it has 200,000 kms on it, it may just be like any other car at that point, only worth a 3-5000 thousand dollars on the used market anyway, and you will just replace it with a newer model. The battery range issue for 90% of these buyers is going to be a non issue, as most buyers will likely follow the 4 year buying cycle most drivers currently follow. I am sure Tesla will end up with a certified used program where they refurbish the car and batteries, and offer it as a premium used car with a warranty.

[pylon]

Also my boner is for a Tesla hatchback. Something along the lines of a Golf or GTI. That is the breaking point when I will be buying one either from a local dealer, or from the US if necessary.

[combustiblefuel]

^^ True they will most likely refurbish every thing and throw in a new pack. Mixing new cells with old cells is definitely Huge no-no.

[Hack&Lube]

What's the rate of degradation in batteries for current gen Teslas? If you bought a Tesla, how much less of a charge would it hold after a few years of hard charging? I'm sure battery tech will only improve though and if they are easily swappable, the range of your vehicle might actually improve over time.

[combustiblefuel]

^^ with those cells if your not completely running them low or putting 100% back. So you charge them up to 90% and only running them down to 30-20% you'll get at least 700- 800 cycles. If your only going to be using around 50-60 miles a day you could get away with not charging them to 2-3 days. That will defiantly help with keep the battery around longer. Its hard to say about an average Pack of a tesla will last. Its just one of those things that we have to wait there's just not enough out there to give a definite answer. From what we know about the various lithium cobalt 18650 cells that we use in every day devices like lap tops, power tools, ebikes , electric motor bikes. There not the best option in terms of life cycles but they are small, and more energy dense than the average battery pack with out having to make the leap to unstable lipo cells . There are already lithium chemistrys specificly lifepo4 cells that have 1400-4000 life cycles. The down side is they are quite large and heavy (usually 10ah-20ah) cylinders or pouch packs. Pouch packs can puff up tho or the tabs corrode or fall off from heavy shocks. Headway cells would be an example of them.


Tesla them self's recommend AVOIDING THE SUPERCHARGE UNLESS ON A ROAS TRIP. They strongly recommended using the normal charge method. Consistently using higher currents will be harder on the battery. The 8 year life is based on using the normal method. They also say not to constantly run the battery low or keep it charged fully. So basic lithium battery car


From What I have read on the Tesla owners forum after a many are reporting a 20%-30% loss after 2-3 years. Which is most likely why they offer a eight year or 240,000 kms. These people also did not do the basic care of they batteries like the should have.

With all that said about charging A lot will be about discharge omg as well. Stop and go traffic is constantly having the motor pull an extreme amount of current until you get back to cruising speed where It will draw a lower and more steady current draw.


My guess tho would be since the models that are out are about showcasing power of an electric vehicles they will stick with the 18650 cylinders. Then when you see these lower end models for the average consumer you will start seeing other batteries with lifepo4 . They are much cheaper although less energy dense have 4-6 time the life of cobalt and aluminum mixtures as well as them being 100% safe.

Side note
My Harley sportster that I retro fitted uses the same panosonic cells and Its been a year since it was retro fitted. It has about 3% difference but I rarely use it and keep it in storage most of the time. Same with if you live in the mountains. Terrain is on of the biggest factors. A Tesla in the prairies is going to have his packs longer than the guy that lives on top of a hill.