CP Mafia 2 - Town Square Showdown - Game Over

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by starseed

I have explained my reasoning in prior posts. I think our best strategy is to vote as a block with a leader we know is a townsperson. The Timbo fail may have been a breakdown in logic, but at the time, he seemed like a reasonable choice considering his line of logic. The fail also just emphasized that we are all slinging mud too much right now, which is a big positive for the mafia. At this point, I am thinking we need a couple of votes behind us so that we can start forming more informed decisions. hmmhmmcamo was on my list already, so I am following ineedanother's lead.

Yep, this would be the way to go. There's a huge likelihood that mafia is heavily influencing discussion right now. The problem is, and I don't mean any offense by this, that ineedabeer seems pretty green and doesn't seem like he could lead the charge and hunt out scum.

[jayswin]

Also, the one thing mafia is going to be very aware of in this game, after seeing how much it was used as indicators last game, is vote patterns.

I'd suggest there will be lots of mafia voting strategy that will include vote changes that they can point to later when accused. "What do you mean I'm aligned with that guy? I had him as my vote for two days back here".

So basically look for early voting and then changing and also late pile on votes if someone is found to be scum.

[HalifaxDrunk]

Originally Posted by Delgar

This is pretty much the opposite as to what you said to ineedanother when he was contemplating a kill. You said it would be random. Now why different?

I will post my thoughts about why I'm looking at you so that everyone can see why, not just me, and it has little to do with your "joke". I'm going to be tied up now until later this evening though.

I'm not saying it isn't random, it completely is. I just said he is not trying to shed light on someone maliciously. You know, like you are. I believe you are currently "tied up" asking your Mafia buddies how to spin a story against me.

Before you have a chance to spill your false story, I will actually agree to an adapted plan of your previous suggestion about us going back-to-back. If at anytime (doesn't have to be the next kill, ANYTIME) you are killed and turn out to be a Townie I volunteer to be killed next. Do you agree to do the same? If I am killed (and it proves I am a Townie) you will throw yourself on the sword next?

If I'm killed first it will hurt the town. But if on the next night you die and turn out to be Mafia (like I believe) it is worth it. At that time I beg the town to go back over my posts and see who I was targeting/targeted me. If we both turn out to be townies this pissing match was all for nothing and I hate the Mafia even more.


Vote: Delgar

[Lego Man]

Everyone calm down!

Over 500 posts in one day. At this point I think we are over analyzing things.

Looking back, Mafia made it pretty clear in the first day of the first game that they were piling on the same person to vote them out. This game, it appears there is no benefit to piling on early because 1) there are two smaller mafia's now, and 2) A mafia member has a much higher chance each day that their mafia remains intact at the end of each night/day.

I firmly believe that members within the same Mafia will work to keep their voting patterns separate and independent for the first few days, which means voting patterns will not communicate information that is very meaningful to the game.



Having said that, I think we should all quickly pile on Completely. I instinct says he isn't Mafia, which actually makes me even more suspicious that he is Mafia.

Let's all unite and out the scum that is Completely!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by HalifaxDrunk

You said you are making your kill today (Day 1), please do. While we do have until Sunday in real time, earlier would be better. Once complete we can then figure out what to do before the vote deadline.

If not, why make the declaration that you are the vigilante and then not use your kill? Each Mafia faction knows who their members are so as the vigilante you are not with them so they want you dead anyway. Identifying yourself with the 1 time kill shouldn't matter to them as your power is then gone.

Once you do use your kill then you are truly identified as a Townie, and no longer have power. You would be the 1 guaranteed player who could be trusted. This does put a target on you for a Mafia night kill but once identified as a Townie THEN the doctor protecting you is valuable, it covers our best asset and could potentially block any Mafia night kill(s) helping the town go further with larger numbers.

Without the kill proof I think it is a waste of the doctor's time to try and protect you until later. I'm sure the Mafia side board would think this is a perfect strategy, you knew your head appeared to be on the chopping block so this way you stay alive for a while longer and nullify the doctor's ability to help the town thus helping the Mafia.

With nothing to go on it is hard to believe you really are the vigilante/townie.

Please use your kill and I will change my vote, until then:
Vote: ineedanother

Question for you HD, in the quoted post you seem to ignore the fact the the real Vig would kill the fake Vig so by not dying it would confirm ineed as town. No need to waste the power early.

Why did you ignore the several posters advocating this strategy and vote for ineed anyways?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by devo22

I'm confused. Are you talking about ineedanother? Because after he used his kill, we know that he is 100% town. Take a look at the role PMs on the first page, it clearly states that the vigilante is a townie.

I was a bit busy and didn't realize he used his power. Too late for my strategy I guess

[Completely]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

Everyone calm down!

Over 500 posts in one day. At this point I think we are over analyzing things.

Looking back, Mafia made it pretty clear in the first day of the first game that they were piling on the same person to vote them out. This game, it appears there is no benefit to piling on early because 1) there are two smaller mafia's now, and 2) A mafia member has a much higher chance each day that their mafia remains intact at the end of each night/day.

I firmly believe that members within the same Mafia will work to keep their voting patterns separate and independent for the first few days, which means voting patterns will not communicate information that is very meaningful to the game.



Having said that, I think we should all quickly pile on Completely. I instinct says he isn't Mafia, which actually makes me even more suspicious that he is Mafia.

Let's all unite and out the scum that is Completely!

Legooo ><

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

Everyone calm down!

Over 500 posts in one day. At this point I think we are over analyzing things.

Looking back, Mafia made it pretty clear in the first day of the first game that they were piling on the same person to vote them out. This game, it appears there is no benefit to piling on early because 1) there are two smaller mafia's now, and 2) A mafia member has a much higher chance each day that their mafia remains intact at the end of each night/day.

I firmly believe that members within the same Mafia will work to keep their voting patterns separate and independent for the first few days, which means voting patterns will not communicate information that is very meaningful to the game.



Having said that, I think we should all quickly pile on Completely. I instinct says he isn't Mafia, which actually makes me even more suspicious that he is Mafia.

Let's all unite and out the scum that is Completely!

Lego Man you are tenacious

[GP_Matt]

I am in favour of following Ineed this round but not necessarily afterwards.
We know that he is town and out of the 29 people here he is the only one that we all know is town. We have no other evidence to base a decision off of so all we can do is pick someone at random.
If Ineed picks at random there is 28 names he can choose from and eight are mafia.
If anyone else picks a name at random there are 27 names to choose from and 8 are still mafia but we run the risk that the person picking is mafia and leading us down the wrong path. We also run the risk of a mafia guy randomly picking someone from the other mafia and thus looking incredibly trustworthy going forward.

Vote: hmmhmmcamo

[Rathji]

Been out all day and just caught the card flip. I was pretty convinced that I saw something that wasn't there. Confirmation bias is strong here.

Obviously
unvote

I think I have missed something with the sudden piling onto Kermit and hmmcamo (however you spell it) but I am betting that is because I am on my phone for almost 24 hours.

Kind of sucks that my target ended up being the Vig, since it was really not much more than a random vote with a higher chance of being scum.

Right now, I am leaning heavily towards getting rid of an inactive player over anyone else.

[CofR]

Damn, not sure what to think of the vig power being used already.... At least we know that ineedanother is a townie. Blindly following his votes for this day may be ok, but it's going to be as wild of a guess as anyone else's.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by CofR

Damn, not sure what to think of the vig power being used already.... At least we know that ineedanother is a townie. Blindly following his votes for this day may be ok, but it's going to be as wild of a guess as anyone else's.

Yeah, it's not so much that he's necessarily going to be right, so much as we know nothing he says is going to be a mafia-led misdirection.

[CofR]

Originally Posted by flameswin

Yeah, it's not so much that he's necessarily going to be right, so much as we know nothing he says is going to be a mafia-led misdirection.

True, at least we can trust him.

[kermitology]

The only other thing to note is that we can't trust that everyone who hops on ineedanother's vote is a townie.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Been out all day and just caught the card flip. I was pretty convinced that I saw something that wasn't there. Confirmation bias is strong here.

Obviously
unvote

I think I have missed something with the sudden piling onto Kermit and hmmcamo (however you spell it) but I am betting that is because I am on my phone for almost 24 hours.

Kind of sucks that my target ended up being the Vig, since it was really not much more than a random vote with a higher chance of being scum.

Right now, I am leaning heavily towards getting rid of an inactive player over anyone else.

I haven't posted much in the last bit, mainly cuz it this have been all over the place.


I am still thinking we vote for least active person.

1. If they are not active cuz they are scum and want to fly under the radar, then it is a win.
2. If they are not active, and turn out to be a one of us townies then, we really haven't lost anything b/c they are not adding anything to the mix.

I would, as posted earlier, be willing to vote of Hmmcommmcommmheocmm, mainly cuz ineedanother (confirmed townie) picked him, also, I can't rememebr how to spell his/her user name.

[HalifaxDrunk]

Originally Posted by GGG

Question for you HD, in the quoted post you seem to ignore the fact the the real Vig would kill the fake Vig so by not dying it would confirm ineed as town. No need to waste the power early.

Why did you ignore the several posters advocating this strategy and vote for ineed anyways?

If I was the vig, I would have waited. Why waste the power when we can pressure the liar into tipping his hat? Ineed claimed the power, once he said he was going to use it and didn't it would have sealed his fate in my eyes.

Putting pressure on ineed to do what he said he would do was the only way to prove his truthfulness. If he didn't use the power and he was lying and the real vig would still be in play.

The biggest issue was the early reveal of the role before trying other defenses first.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by kermitology

The only other thing to note is that we can't trust that everyone who hops on ineedanother's vote is a townie.

Agreed

[Hockeyguy15]

Baxter Renegade has posted nothing since the 29th.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by kermitology

The only other thing to note is that we can't trust that everyone who hops on ineedanother's vote is a townie.

Yep, and as I stated earlier, with most of this game being guys who played the last game, the mafia are going to be very calculated with their voting this time around, and ineedabeer is the perfect guy to "be on board with" if you're a mafia member.

"What, me? I've been following ineedabeer's lead, and we know he's a townie".

[hmmhmmcamo]

Originally Posted by flameswin

Yeah, it's not so much that he's necessarily going to be right, so much as we know nothing he says is going to be a mafia-led misdirection.

I couldn't think of a reason why people would want to follow ineedanother's lead after the botched role reveal and the Timbo mistake, but your post makes some sense. He's the only player right now that the Town knows isn't trying to deceive them.

But I'm worried that blindly following ineedanother is a mistake and will allow the Mafia to pile on and blend in. Obviously I'm biased as I have some votes for me, but my thoughts would be the same even if it was someone else being voted for by ineedanother.

Right now I'm leaning towards voting for the least active players as well. Either we find a hiding Mafia, or we get rid of a non contributing player that the Mafia can hide amongst.