CP Mafia 2 - Town Square Showdown - Game Over

[activeStick]

activeStick checking in..!

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by dsavillian

The players were incredibly lucky to get off to such a great start last game, it would be foolish to expect that the good guys would have the same good fortune this time around.


I'm leaning towards the pure-random selection myself. Lynching a townie is not worst case scenario. It's not even close.

Lynching scum > Lynching a regular townie >>>>>>>>> lynching a townie with an ability.

87% chance to not lynch a townie with an ability.
27% chance to nab scum.

I don't mind those odds.

Maybe, but the odds are slightly different this time around. With two mobs its two night kills, plus a mistake means that the townies could get chopped down pretty quickly. If there's a wrong guess two or three nights in a row, it would be very bad.

Unless my math sucks.

I'm all for eliminating inactive players, but its what day two and the vote is game four, we can afford to wait for the last minute to see who shows up and who doesn't show up, it also gives us a chance to look at posting habits.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Or too early to work together.


What/who are you concerned about/with?

I would again be comfortable voting out based on inactivity, for the same reason as last time. If you aren't contributing, you're a liability.

I feel it's more likely that this time the mafia is just trying to blend in and play it like it's early and post nothing but noise. I know I will probably make myself a mafia night kill target with this but I am frustrated with people wanting to go full on random.

There are a bunch of posters who have hardly any activity, and there are a few who seem to be more active but not contributing. It could be that they are new and feeling out the process, but they could also just be trying to fly under the radar.

I feel that kermit isn't really adding much with his posts.
bizaro is offering some insight but not full out hunting mafia
ineedanother is posting but not adding much
Timbo has 3 posts but they seem off to me
SP has been posting, but not contributing

There are also a few posters who mention mafia numbers and potential strategy/mind sets with a very low post count.

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Maybe, but the odds are slightly different this time around. With two mobs its two night kills, plus a mistake means that the townies could get chopped down pretty quickly. If there's a wrong guess two or three nights in a row, it would be very bad.

Unless my math sucks.

I'm all for eliminating inactive players, but its what day two and the vote is game four, we can afford to wait for the last minute to see who shows up and who doesn't show up, it also gives us a chance to look at posting habits.

We lost 2 players per night the last time around too.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I would again be comfortable voting out based on inactivity, for the same reason as last time. If you aren't contributing, you're a liability.

I feel it's more likely that this time the mafia is just trying to blend in and play it like it's early and post nothing but noise. I know I will probably make myself a mafia night kill target with this but I am frustrated with people wanting to go full on random.

There are a bunch of posters who have hardly any activity, and there are a few who seem to be more active but not contributing. It could be that they are new and feeling out the process, but they could also just be trying to fly under the radar.

I feel that kermit isn't really adding much with his posts.
bizaro is offering some insight but not full out hunting mafia
ineedanother is posting but not adding much
Timbo has 3 posts but they seem off to me
SP has been posting, but not contributing

There are also a few posters who mention mafia numbers and potential strategy/mind sets with a very low post count.

Further to that, Flameswin, has 3 posts, one of which says "vote for Flameswin".

For a guy that was chomping at the bit to play he certainly hasn't taken part. Makes me wonder if he is now a Mafia, and can't figure out how to play it....

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by dsavillian

We lost 2 players per night the last time around too.

True, but in this case first its a potential for three, two mobs, that I'm assuming have separate agendas plus a lynch.

In the last game the serial killer was in a game for himself, he wasn't specifically trying to wipe out the NHLPA or the players, he was eliminating threats to himself more then anyone else.

[Mazrim]

Vote Count:

With 30 alive, it takes 16 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 10 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (29): kermitology, hmmhmmcamo, Rathji, Hockeyguy15, bizaro86, strombad, flameswin, CofR, starseed, devo22, agulati, transplant99, Crazy Bacon Legs, Baxter Renegade, ineedanother, HalifaxDrunk, Lego Man, undercoverbrother, dsavillian, Timbo, GP_Matt, activeStick, Delgar, CaptainCrunch, Street Pharmacist, Aeneas, Oling_Roachinen, Completely, DropIt

Voting:
activeStick (1): GGG

Deadline is Sunday, May 4th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Hammer cannot be dropped before Wednesday, April 30th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

(P.S. I don't know who added the Toronto tag to the thread...but I like it!)

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

True, but in this case first its a potential for three, two mobs, that I'm assuming have separate agendas plus a lynch.

In the last game the serial killer was in a game for himself, he wasn't specifically trying to wipe out the NHLPA or the players, he was eliminating threats to himself more then anyone else.

I would argue that it's exactly the same.

We had 3 factions last game (Scum, Town, Serial Killer) and 3 this game (Mafia A, Mafia B, Town)

We lost 3 people per day. 1 lynch + 2 night kills.

[dsavillian]

Eh, it doesn't matter. In this game, each faction has to be the last standing to win. there will be 2 night kills + a lynch every day, unless a power is successful.

Those are the facts we have to go off of when considering our course of action

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by dsavillian

I would argue that it's exactly the same.

We had 3 factions last game (Scum, Town, Serial Killer) and 3 this game (Mafia A, Mafia B, Town)

We lost 3 people per day. 1 lynch + 2 night kills.

The overall effect is the same, true. The only difference is that the Serial Killer had the ability to kill anyone, so his range of targets was larger.

And Hockeyguy15, you're definitely playing this like a veteran, there are a bunch of newbies. Posting without adding much doesn't necessarily mean anything. There's a lot of lonely townspeople here at the moment.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I would again be comfortable voting out based on inactivity, for the same reason as last time. If you aren't contributing, you're a liability.

I feel it's more likely that this time the mafia is just trying to blend in and play it like it's early and post nothing but noise. I know I will probably make myself a mafia night kill target with this but I am frustrated with people wanting to go full on random.

There are a bunch of posters who have hardly any activity, and there are a few who seem to be more active but not contributing. It could be that they are new and feeling out the process, but they could also just be trying to fly under the radar.

I feel that kermit isn't really adding much with his posts.
bizaro is offering some insight but not full out hunting mafia
ineedanother is posting but not adding much
Timbo has 3 posts but they seem off to me
SP has been posting, but not contributing

There are also a few posters who mention mafia numbers and potential strategy/mind sets with a very low post count.

Sorry, but contributing on day 1? At worst it's a random guess, at best is a random guess. There isn't any meaningful contribution to be had on day 1...

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by kermitology

The overall effect is the same, true. The only difference is that the Serial Killer had the ability to kill anyone, so his range of targets was larger.

And Hockeyguy15, you're definitely playing this like a veteran, there are a bunch of newbies. Posting without adding much doesn't necessarily mean anything. There's a lot of lonely townspeople here at the moment.

I agree, and I did mention that in my post. It's all about how people react when they are called out.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I would again be comfortable voting out based on inactivity, for the same reason as last time. If you aren't contributing, you're a liability.

I feel it's more likely that this time the mafia is just trying to blend in and play it like it's early and post nothing but noise. I know I will probably make myself a mafia night kill target with this but I am frustrated with people wanting to go full on random.

There are a bunch of posters who have hardly any activity, and there are a few who seem to be more active but not contributing. It could be that they are new and feeling out the process, but they could also just be trying to fly under the radar.

I feel that kermit isn't really adding much with his posts.
bizaro is offering some insight but not full out hunting mafia
ineedanother is posting but not adding much
Timbo has 3 posts but they seem off to me
SP has been posting, but not contributing

There are also a few posters who mention mafia numbers and potential strategy/mind sets with a very low post count.

Aside from the self interest of wanting to continue to play, I'd comment that at least my posts have been trying to come up with a strategy. I found it hard to find anything suspicious in the first few posts, but do have some thoughts now.

If you're looking for someone who is posting but not contributing, strombad's Nick Cage photos don't seem especially relevant to me, and neither do Baxter's posts about alcohol.

I think inactivity is a reasonable bar at least initially, and would comment that Activity Stick's "checking in" post is the lowest activity so far.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by kermitology

The overall effect is the same, true. The only difference is that the Serial Killer had the ability to kill anyone, so his range of targets was larger.

And Hockeyguy15, you're definitely playing this like a veteran, there are a bunch of newbies. Posting without adding much doesn't necessarily mean anything. There's a lot of lonely townspeople here at the moment.

I think it'll be a bit harder to get down to one night kill this game, since you need 4 specific people. Even if you got 6 mafia they could be 3 from each and still have two night kills left.

Although the serial killer made it all the way to the end last time, and he was only one guy.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Sorry, but contributing on day 1? At worst it's a random guess, at best is a random guess. There isn't any meaningful contribution to be had on day 1...

I believe we do have some meaninful contribution already, and as I mentioned before I feel that how someone acts when they have been called out gives us meaningful insight as well.

[Hockeyguy15]

Another thing I have noticed is agulati, GP_Matt, SP, and Aeneas were all early to start calling people mafia.

[DropIt]

I was going to throw my vote in for inactivity but it seems as though everyone has checked in.

I guess I'll be paying attention to posting style, whatever that means. If someone doesnt out themselves by vote day then random vote will likely prevail.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I believe we do have some meaninful contribution already, and as I mentioned before I feel that how someone acts when they have been called out gives us meaningful insight as well.

I would argue steering the conversation this early is suspicious

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I would argue steering the conversation this early is suspicious

Call if what you want, but I have noticed some things that to me seemed out of place so I am shaking the tree so to speak.

I realize my outspokeness will probably be a lightening rod, and will likely lead to my early demise but I hope it will lead to some clues of alignment for later.

[kermitology]

Yeah, it's harder to eliminate that extra night kill. But they have less targets.