[News] Flames finish 4th last in the NHL for the 2013-2014 season

[ramizle]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I certainly hope our scouts don't think it's a crapshoot.

I think Reinhart and Ekblad are 2 tiers above Dal Colle and 3 tiers above Ritchie. I think the talent in this draft drops off quickly.

A lot of people thought giving up our three 1sts would have been too much for the 1st overall last year, but who wouldn't make that trade if they could now?

You're telling me you would trade Monahan, this year's 4th overall*, and next year's 1st for Mackinnon? Hahaha Ya he's good, but he's not even close to worth that.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by ramizle

You're telling me you would trade Monahan, this year's 4th overall*, and next year's 1st for Mackinnon? Hahaha Ya he's good, but he's not even close to worth that.

Pretty sure he means our 3 first round picks last year. 6, 22 & 28 or Monahan, Poirier and Klimchuk.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I certainly hope our scouts don't think it's a crapshoot.

I think Reinhart and Ekblad are 2 tiers above Dal Colle and 3 tiers above Ritchie. I think the talent in this draft drops off quickly.

A lot of people thought giving up our three 1sts would have been too much for the 1st overall last year, but who wouldn't make that trade if they could now?

Ok well good thing our scouts dont just draft on current ability / ISS rankings and they factor in potential (ie Gaudreau) and other factors such as likelihood of reaching their ceiling and team needs.

The Oilers took the consensus top pick they could and in hindsight they probably could have done better had they factored in things other than how a player performed offensively in their draft eligible year.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Pretty sure he means our 3 picks last year. 6, 22 & 28 or Monahan, Poirier and Klimchuk.

Thats still very foolish seeing as how Poirier just scored 51 in the Q and Klimchuk was liked enough by team canadas coaches to throw him on a line with McDavid at the Ivan Hlinka. Did I mention neither of them have played a NHL game yet?

Anyhow.. thought I would share this with you guys. I dont think this is a "weak" draft..and this kind of backs it up

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by ramizle

Hell no. I doubt it would cost baertschi to move up from 4 to 2. Sven was once our Monahan and was just recently named the AHL player of the week. I know Sven has been sorta forgotten because we have been pleased with our other prospects. Sven appears like he will be an NHLer and I would not trade him for a marginal 'upgrade'. Plus, we already spent the time and resources to develop him. And we better not trade him to move up a measly 2 spots.

People are massively underrating what it costs to move up in situations like that. Florida is going to have a guy, possibly two, that they really really like. Just because we fans may not see a huge difference between Bennett, Reinhart and Ekblad doesn't mean that the scouts of these teams don't. If Florida drops down to #4 maybe they don't get the guy they want.

So what are they going to want? They're going to need enough value to offset the possible loss in value in not getting the guy they want.

Teams usually trade down because the value of the asset they receive in return is greater than the difference between the guy they could pick now and the guy they'll pick with whatever comes back. This typically happens in the mid-to-late first round, where teams may have 4-5 guys they like but are pretty sure at least one will still be there in 8-10 picks, so they get another asset out of the deal.

It's an entirely different ball game in the top 10 and especially in the top 5. The difference between a Reinhart and a Draisaitl may, to some teams, simply not be worth picking up an asset like Sven who may or may not really put it together at the NHL level. They might think Reinhart has 70 pt upside but Draisaitl is maybe a good 55 pt second line center. Do you make that trade for a 21 year old winger who hasn't cracked the NHL on a bottom five team? I wouldn't, if that's what I thought of those prospects.

My rule of thumb for trades is it's probably not likely to happen in the real world unless fans of a team wouldn't make the trade themselves. My bet is offering Sven might not even be enough to get Florida listening to swap spots.

[ramizle]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Pretty sure he means our 3 first round picks last year. 6, 22 & 28 or Monahan, Poirier and Klimchuk.

Ya you're right, read it right, understood it wrong. I still wouldn't do it. Porier is shaping up to be a nice pick.

[ramizle]

I'll try looking for the post but someone once posted trade ups and trade downs in the first round and it was a lot cheaper than we assume.

[Nehkara]

How good/bad would it be for the Flames to pick Virtanen?

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

How good/bad would it be for the Flames to pick Virtanen?

At 4? Very bad.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

I like Virtanen and Ritchie. They would likely be a reach at 4. But nice picks.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Draft Lottery Simulator:

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=714502

[theoforever]

Originally Posted by ramizle

I'll try looking for the post but someone once posted trade ups and trade downs in the first round and it was a lot cheaper than we assume.

Yeah, I remember the price to move up was way cheaper than whats being posted here.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Draft Lottery Simulator:

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=714502

Ofcourse its on the oilers site!

I got the Leafs winning the draft lotto on my 1st try. I puked.

EDIT: Next 2 tries, I got the Isles and Edmonton.

Im officially going to have nightmares of those 2 scenarios. The oilers getting Ekblad - and the Isles winning the lotto - after most of us cheered them on to the 5th last position that we could have had. That would be a historic troll by the hockey gods

[TheDebaser]

Originally Posted by Buck Murdock

What would it take to get Florida's pick with out giving up ours?

Monahan or Gaudreau+ I'd say. It would have to be a serious offer. I don't even think Giordano gets it done.

[jg13]

Originally Posted by TheDebaser

Monahan or Gaudreau+ I'd say. It would have to be a serious offer. I don't even think Giordano gets it done.

Stop.

[ramizle]

Originally Posted by TheDebaser

Monahan or Gaudreau+ I'd say. It would have to be a serious offer. I don't even think Giordano gets it done.

Green text? People here are either severely undervaluing our prospects, or I'm undervaluing how much it costs to move up a few draft spots.

[TheDebaser]

Originally Posted by ramizle

Green text? People here are either severely undervaluing our prospects, or I'm undervaluing how much it costs to move up a few draft spots.

The poster I responded to asked what we'd have to give up to get the 2nd overall pick "Without giving up ours," as in picking up second overall without giving up our fourth. Adding our fourth to any of that would be ridiculous.

A team like Florida needs futures, my thinking is that 2-5 years of wonderful hockey from Gio wouldn't make their team a contender like 6-8 years of potentially wonderful hockey from Reinhart or Ekblad would.

Trading our 4th+ for a second overall is completely different than trading outright for a second overall.

[theoforever]

Originally Posted by TheDebaser

Monahan or Gaudreau+ I'd say. It would have to be a serious offer. I don't even think Giordano gets it done.

Giordano is now legit top pairing d-man.
He is worth that pick without doubt, perhaps more.
Monahan is worth more than that pick as he has shown he is nhler.

[saXon]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Draft Lottery Simulator:

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=714502

I like this simulator.

[TheDebaser]

Originally Posted by theoforever

Giordano is now legit top pairing d-man.
He is worth that pick without doubt, perhaps more.
Monahan is worth more than that pick as he has shown he is nhler.

You're probably right, but that's around what we'd have to offer, much less and Florida hangs up the phone. I named those players because every other player we have doesn't even come close to the value necessary, not because the value matches up nicely.