China - Superpower

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

WHAT??? Japan's constitution does not allow it to have an offensive military. They have what is called SDF. Self defense force and yes it is modern and well equiped but it would be wiped out in a second if China decided to take it out. They have become a lot like Canada as a Peace keeping military.

Slowly, they're are being given more autonomy to extend beyond their borders of simple defense of the Island. Case in point, their limited participation in Iraq.

While Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution severely limits their role beyond a 'self defesne force' (ex. not having ROE, no long-range capabilities), reforms are being made in the direction of becoming a 'military'.

For example, in 2005 there were constitutional changes that would allow for the creation of a Defense Ministry, and changed the definition of the JSDF from 'self-defense force' to 'military force.' The reform had widespread support among the public, and, since the JSDF carefull follow public opinion in their activities, the government of Japan has begun to find ways to include international roles in their definition of 'self-defense', such as protecting shipping lanes of oil in the Persian Gulf, supporting the US in Iraq, and providing disaster relief for Indonesia during the 2004 tsunami.

In addition. potential conflicts with China and / or North Korea will ensure that the JSDF remains strong and robust, and since the US is looking to reduce their troop levels in the area, Japan will ahve to play a bigger role in providing stability in the region if the power keg is lit.

So my point is, the JSDF isn't as pacificist as it once was; its making gains (albeit small gains) into a more proactive role.

[Agamemnon]

The Japanese are indeed on the ground in Iraq. They are no longer strictly limited to defense.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deploym...troops_to_Iraq

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by FireFly

Don't ever kid yourself. Japan has slowly but surely built an army to rival the greatest in any nation. Sure, it's called a 'salf defense force' but it's not really. If China decided to take Japan out, Japan's SDF would be just fine. Seriously, Japan has been building their army at the US' request since before the US even told them to put the SDF in their Constitution. Previously, they unofficial spending limit was less than 1% of their GDP on military, and now they spend about 5%, and have been since the mid-80's... doesn't sound like much until you realize just how large Japan's economy is. They are currently debating whether or not they should allow for nuclear weapons, previously unheard of being the only nation that has been a victim of them. People wouldn't even mention the words 'atomic bomb' in Japan previously, and closed their eyes to the obvious re-militarization that was occurring. The citizens of Japan don't want to me a militaristic nation, but now that they have a democracy, they realize that they won't be dragged into something they don't want to be involved in. Not only are the Japanese discussing becoming nuclear capable, the people see the need for nuclear weapons in Japan. Do you blame them? They are surrounded by loose cannons!

Spending is still at 1% GDP. However, it is still a large amount considering their GDP is about 4 trillion bucks

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/...k/geos/ja.html

[FireFly]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

Spending is still at 1% GDP. However, it is still a large amount considering their GDP is about 4 trillion bucks

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/...k/geos/ja.html

Yeah, it's gone back down. The first time it went over 1% was in the mid-1980's... Man I wish I had a copy of the paper I wrote on this now. If I recall correctly, It was about 3% (fluctuating to 5% at one point) until the beginning of the 90's when due to the booming economy, it could go back down to around 1% and stay there... for now.

[FlamesAddiction]

The good thing about China is that they historically only try to exert power within their own sphere of influence. You don't see them putting troops and bases in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, the South Pacific... etc.

Really, we shouldn't have too much to be afraid of. At the very least, they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

BTW, isn't Mongolia already a defacto Chinese satellite? What would they have to gain? It would be like the U.S. invading Canada. They can already get everything they want without an expensive and costly take-over.

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

BTW, isn't Mongolia already a defacto Chinese satellite? What would they have to gain? It would be like the U.S. invading Canada. They can already get everything they want without an expensive and costly take-over.

For some reason I thought it was originally a Soviet/Russian satellite... not sure who controls it now. I could be wrong though.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by FireFly

The biggest problem with China will be whether they believe in retalliation by their neighbours. China will likely try and reclaim Taiwan, and the question is, what will the rest of the world do about it? Can you really see anyone deciding to take on the Chinese in a land battle? Hmmmm.... How about launching a nuclear war? Yeah, that's what I thought.

In order to properly 'tame' China, you need a stronger Japan. Japan now has a massive army with all the best technology, but no nukes. Really, it's all they need for their voice to be louder on the international scene.

China has about as much claim to Taiwan as the USA has to Canada. I find it frustrating that China's claim to Taiwan is thought of as a given and China's expansion policies are thought of as okay.

http://www.taiwandc.org/hst-1624.htm

[RedMan12]

Originally Posted by FireFly

The biggest problem with China will be whether they believe in retalliation by their neighbours. China will likely try and reclaim Taiwan, and the question is, what will the rest of the world do about it? Can you really see anyone deciding to take on the Chinese in a land battle? Hmmmm.... How about launching a nuclear war? Yeah, that's what I thought.

In order to properly 'tame' China, you need a stronger Japan. Japan now has a massive army with all the best technology, but no nukes. Really, it's all they need for their voice to be louder on the international scene.

Japan only has a national defense. Its not a true army. Japan also has a population of 120 million on an isolated Island. Not much to go against mainland China.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by FireFly

Japan now has a massive army with all the best technology, but no nukes. Really, it's all they need for their voice to be louder on the international scene.

Are there American nukes in Japan?

Also if push came to shove I'd guess that Japan could arm itself with nuclear weapons (and tuck them inside a Hello Kitty cell phone if necessary) in a pretty short period of time. That's pretty much a nuclear deterrent in itself.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

Are there American nukes in Japan?

Also if push came to shove I'd guess that Japan could arm itself with nuclear weapons (and tuck them inside a Hello Kitty cell phone if necessary) in a pretty short period of time. That's pretty much a nuclear deterrent in itself.

From what I remember from my studies, there are no Nukes on Japan according to a document signed in the 1970's between Japan and the US that 'updated' the San Francisco Treaty, although I could be wrong.

Japan was a buffer state during the Cold War, not a launch pad for American nukes. If that were the case, all Russia would have to do is develop short-range warheads as opposed to the ICBM's they started developing in the 1970's.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

China has about as much claim to Taiwan as the USA has to Canada. I find it frustrating that China's claim to Taiwan is thought of as a given and China's expansion policies are thought of as okay.

http://www.taiwandc.org/hst-1624.htm

Doesn't the Taiwanese government actually consider itself a Chinese government in exile though? At least that is how it was explained to me, and if that is accurate, it's easy to see how China would consider it a threat to their security.

Also, there are a lot of people in Taiwan who want unification with China. They just want it under their terms (ie. capitalist and democratic).

[HelloHockeyFans]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Doesn't the Taiwanese government actually consider itself a Chinese government in exile though? At least that is how it was explained to me, and if that is accurate, it's easy to see how China would consider it a threat to their security.

Also, there are a lot of people in Taiwan who want unification with China. They just want it under their terms (ie. capitalist and democratic).

Yup. In fact, the majority of people in Taiwan want unification.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Doesn't the Taiwanese government actually consider itself a Chinese government in exile though? At least that is how it was explained to me, and if that is accurate, it's easy to see how China would consider it a threat to their security.

Also, there are a lot of people in Taiwan who want unification with China. They just want it under their terms (ie. capitalist and democratic).

I'm not up on current Taiwanese politics but when they were conqured by the KMT in 1947 this govt. [a military dictatorship supported by the US] considered itself as the ruler of China. They have been thrown out and a young democracy has replaced them. It would be a shame to see them thrown under the bus when the West is clamouring for democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan. Taiwan was only considerd a part of China for 8 years and the original inhabitants aren't Chinese but are Malay-Polynesian. Their are a lot of people in Canada that want to be part of the US too, that doesnt mean it will happen or even desired by most.
I don't believe today, they want to be any part of China under any govt. Read the article to get some background.

[RedMan12]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

From what I remember from my studies, there are no Nukes on Japan according to a document signed in the 1970's between Japan and the US that 'updated' the San Francisco Treaty, although I could be wrong.

Japan was a buffer state during the Cold War, not a launch pad for American nukes. If that were the case, all Russia would have to do is develop short-range warheads as opposed to the ICBM's they started developing in the 1970's.

I am pretty sure Japan is not big on nuclear weapons, too. Especially being the only nation to be bombed with atomic weaponary.

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by RedMan12

I am pretty sure Japan is not big on nuclear weapons, too. Especially being the only nation to be bombed with atomic weaponary.

I think if push came to shove Japan would be armed with nuclear weapons in an extremely short period of time. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to find that they've already got a 'crash program' in place for a worst-case-China-scenario. With full US approval no doubt.

Japan isn't the same place it once was. When it was bombed it was an empire. Now its a democracy. The circumstances aren't there for Japan to become an agressive military empire again, with or without nuclear weapons.

They probably have the most developed nuclear power system in the world, or one of.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

I think if push came to shove Japan would be armed with nuclear weapons in an extremely short period of time. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to find that they've already got a 'crash program' in place for a worst-case-China-scenario. With full US approval no doubt.

Japan isn't the same place it once was. When it was bombed it was an empire. Now its a democracy. The circumstances aren't there for Japan to become an agressive military empire again, with or without nuclear weapons.

They probably have the most developed nuclear power system in the world, or one of.

Japan is bound by the Nuclear Non Proliferation Agreement. They would start building Nuclear weapons no more than Canada would. It just wont happen.

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

Japan is bound by the Nuclear Non Proliferation Agreement. They would start building Nuclear weapons no more than Canada would. It just wont happen.

If China began making agressive moves in South-East Asia I think you'd be surprised how quickly it _will_ happen. Japanese attitudes aren't 'because we fought and lost a war, we won't defend ourselves next time'. If and when China begins expansion, Japan will be the chief bulwark against it.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

If China began making agressive moves in South-East Asia I think you'd be surprised how quickly it _will_ happen. Japanese attitudes aren't 'because we fought and lost a war, we won't defend ourselves next time'. If and when China begins expansion, Japan will be the chief bulwark against it.

I think you would be suprised that Japan would actually abide by a UN sanctioned international agreement. I dont think they would risk political and economic sanctions and embargos.

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

I think you would be suprised that Japan would actually abide by a UN sanctioned international agreement. I dont think they would risk political and economic sanctions and embargos.

Uh... in the example I used China is agressively expanding in the region (that means not playing nice). You think Japan is going to cite UN resolutions in their defense?

Do you know what a hypothetical is? IF China becomes SE Asia's badboy, THEN Japan would most certainly act to protect its interests. I'm not sure why we believe they'd be citing international resolutions in that event; chances are the international community would be set squarely against the Chinese... sort of like now.

Let me put it in simpler terms; if Japan feared attack from China, they would not feel constrained by international treaties. This much should be pretty darn obvious, and they'd be supported by the West.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

Uh... in the example I used China is agressively expanding in the region (that means not playing nice). You think Japan is going to cite UN resolutions in their defense?

Do you know what a hypothetical is? IF China becomes SE Asia's badboy, THEN Japan would most certainly act to protect its interests. I'm not sure why we believe they'd be citing international resolutions in that event; chances are the international community would be set squarely against the Chinese... sort of like now.

Let me put it in simpler terms; if Japan feared attack from China, they would not feel constrained by international treaties. This much should be pretty darn obvious, and they'd be supported by the West.

Simpler terms are not needed. Japan would not need to produce ANY nuclear weapons for as you say the WEST would back them up, not to mention the UN. Japan would not spend billions of dollars on a nuclear program, break international obligationa and treaties, when all it takes is a few US or BRITISH nuclear subs place around Japan. Not sure if you know this but the US has intercontinental ballistic missles that can reach China.