China - Superpower

[Circa89]

I got thinking that while every second thread here seems focused upon the Islamic Fundamentalism in the world we as a global community are ignoring the real threat to international relations -China.

China is massive.
China has the largest of popultion of any nation on earth. China is soon to have the largest economy of any nation on earth and within the next couple of years China will have the most power and influence of any nation on Earth. China has the largest military on the planet and nuclear technology to boot.

China is not known for their diplomacy or human rights. What happens in 5 years when China decides to annex their neighbours in Mongolia? Who wants to stop them? Not the mighty Americans, because Walmart may have to raise prices by 10-20% if they can't trade anymore.

What happens when China decides that they need more land?

Everytime Canadians shop at Walmart, Costco, even Canadian Tire we are transferring our riches overseas to China by the 40ft container load.

I don't mean for this to sound like an anti-China rant or a pro Michael Moore rant. I'm just very concerned how much power the world is giving to a country with poor human rights records. Ask Tibet or even Taiwan how much fun mainland China is to deal with when they say guess what? You're part of our country now.

Am I over reacting our will my children marvel at the stories I narrate telling of North American economic superiority!

[Vulcan]

China, the way it is, can be pretty scary. My hope is that as the country adopts capitalism and the people get richer and better educated they will become more democratic and responsible.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Oh great.

Here I was having nightmares about the nice Egyptian family down the street kidnapping me, cutting off my head with the Black and Decker chainsaw I saw them buy at Canadian Tire last week and posting the video on YouTube.

Not to mention the visions of jackbooted brown shirt Young Republicans breaking my house windows and turning me in for a case of Zima.

Christ, now it's the Chinese. I'll never get to sleep.

[if.away]

China's growth will stagnate as time goes by, they won't grow at the same pace as they're growing now. As more and more chinese will live better lives they'll be more educated and throw out their communist regime. Plus their cheap labor advantage will disappear while their consumption will skyrocket.

To slow China down one would have to make sure they get less and less access to oil reserves. An invasion of Iran would void some of their key contracts and severely limit their expansion, a reason why China is a major opposing force in the UN when it comes to dealing with Iran.

[Hack&Lube]

Islamic fundamentalism is the greater threat because it it is insidious and unpredictable. The U.S. would far prefer living in the comfort of cold war conditions against an economic and military powerhouse nation-state versus an unpredicatable terrorist enemy that can spring up anywhere.

Human rights are a very relative thing to consider - what's happening in Iraq and Afghanistan is a not a good human rights record and the U.S. is the aggressor. That seems a double standard.

China's economy and strict government means at least one thing - strong rule of law and that is a good thing. I really think democracy isn't as neccessary as one thinks and can't be imposed - look what happened to Russia. Democracy without rule of law means the country is an absolute mess in terms of economics, crime, poverty, justice, human rights, everything. The level of human traffic and attrocities in Russia is staggering and that never seems to get mentioned.

People say that China's economy will slow down and stagnate, but this may not be for another 100 years. What makes China different from other developing countries that experience super growth and then stagnation is simply population. That many people in China (and growing) just means a huge labour force = cheap labour will always be relatively abundant. I don't know who could possibly replace China as a cheaper source of stable labor. India perhaps but they are on their own developmental track. The only source of cheaper labor is Africa but that's too chaotic and underdeveloped and possibly always will be.

Most people also don't seem to realize that Hong Kong is nolonger a democracy. They have no voting, they have basically none of the political rights, etc. that we in the west seem to think is the magical cure all. Hong Kong is a special zone controlled by Beijing and conditions are generally just the same as it was under British (and thusly democratic) rule.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Circa89

I got thinking that while every second thread here seems focused upon the Islamic Fundamentalism in the world we as a global community are ignoring the real threat to international relations -China.

China is massive.
China has the largest of popultion of any nation on earth. China is soon to have the largest economy of any nation on earth and within the next couple of years China will have the most power and influence of any nation on Earth. China has the largest military on the planet and nuclear technology to boot.

China is not known for their diplomacy or human rights. What happens in 5 years when China decides to annex their neighbours in Mongolia? Who wants to stop them? Not the mighty Americans, because Walmart may have to raise prices by 10-20% if they can't trade anymore.

What happens when China decides that they need more land?

Everytime Canadians shop at Walmart, Costco, even Canadian Tire we are transferring our riches overseas to China by the 40ft container load.

I don't mean for this to sound like an anti-China rant or a pro Michael Moore rant. I'm just very concerned how much power the world is giving to a country with poor human rights records. Ask Tibet or even Taiwan how much fun mainland China is to deal with when they say guess what? You're part of our country now.

I'm I over reacting our will my children marvel at the stories I narrate telling of North American economic superiority!

I dont think we have to worry to much about China other than they may try to retake tiawan again. As their economy grows they have been adopting more and more democratic and capitalistic ideas.

By the way, North Korea has the largest Standing Military, but China does have the largest capacity of abled bodies if they decided to mobilize.

[White Doors]

India Will help to keep China in check. India will soon have a larger population than China.

[Cowperson]

Just passing through . . . . . some interesting comparisons of China, India and America on page 2 of this Fareed Zakharia column in Newsweek.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13123358/site/newsweek/

Cowperson

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

By the way, North Korea has the largest Standing Military, but China does have the largest capacity of abled bodies if they decided to mobilize.

In what way is North Korea the largest? These are the numbers according to NationMaster.com.

Armed forces personnel (in hundred thousands)

1. China - 28.1
2. Russia - 15.2
3. United States - 13.6
4. India - 13.0
5. North Korea - 10.5
6. South Korea - 6.8


Capacity of able bodies (in millions)...

1. China - 375
2. India - 288
3. United States - 73
23. South Korea - 14
46. North Korea - 6

North Korea has pretty well maxed out its capability while other countries haven't really dipped into the pool. What do you have to support your claims of North Korea having the largest standing military in the world?

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Just passing through . . . . . some interesting comparisons of China, India and America on page 2 of this Fareed Zakharia column in Newsweek.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13123358/site/newsweek/

Cowperson

Read that a couple days ago and it echos the sentiment of Thomas Friedman. The United States appears to be very compacent in their attitude towards their perch atop the global food chain. The malaise that grips the upcoming generations could be the downfall to the empire. Everyone wants to make a buck quickly instead of building something. I think the greatest hing that America could do right now is to challenge itself like Kennedy did in 1960. A cooperative effort to attain a goal (a renewable energy source, a mission to Mars, the cure for cancer) could kick start the American engine that we grew up to admire. What is evident in the country now will certainly be its downfall. There is no commitment to anything other than the pursuit of individual freedoms and endevours. The international community should allow the sleeping giant to remain in its slumber. Let them snooze until its too late.

[Ozy_Flame]

China is far too reliant on foreign energy reserves, and has never taken a leadership position as a superpower / hegemon in this world among countries, nor do they show any signs of doing so. With the obsolete communist government, repression of basic freedoms (ex. internet, free speech), and ignorance of human rights, they have a long way to go before becoming a true superpower.

Economicially they will be strong, but they have shown very little that would convince the rest of the world to accept them as a global leader.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

China is far too reliant on foreign energy reserves, and has never taken a leadership position as a superpower / hegemon in this world among countries, nor do they show any signs of doing so. With the obsolete communist government, repression of basic freedoms (ex. internet, free speech), and ignorance of human rights, they have a long way to go before becoming a true superpower.

Economicially they will be strong, but they have shown very little that would convince the rest of the world to accept them as a global leader.

What defines a super-power? To me its a country that has the ability to dominate from an economic, political and military perspective.

Can China dominate economically? Duh. They manufacture most of the stuff we buy. They have a potential market of 1.2 billion customers. They own a great number of the notes that the United States has used to finance itself over the past decade. That's economic power.

Can China dominate politically? This is their weakness IMO, as China's existing government is not friendly to the much of the world. I think this is changing as the Chinese see the best way to dominate the world. The Chinese are making a concerted effort to improve their systems all around. Bejing wasn't built in a day and the government is slowly evolving towards the market economy. If China makes the jump, and does it effectively, they will be the shining example for emerging economies around the globe and that will give them great political power. They are a work in progress in this regard.

Can China dominate militarily? They have the largest military and significant investment in technology. They are likely a generation behind the Americans in technology, and if the U.S. really presses could bring to the table another generation of weapons that would put the Chinese behind the curve (based on what we know of the Chinese military anyways), but they do have a very powerful force compared to the rest of the world. They could take on anyone and do well against them. A technological advantage is only an edge for so long. At some point the boots have to hit the ground, and the Chinese have a gross advantage in that regard. That alone makes them a superpower IMO.

I think China is definitely a superpower and gaining strength. It all depends on how the government continues to evolve. If they become more progressive the Chinese likely will become the dominant force in the future.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

In what way is North Korea the largest? These are the numbers according to NationMaster.com.

Armed forces personnel (in hundred thousands)

1. China - 28.1
2. Russia - 15.2
3. United States - 13.6
4. India - 13.0
5. North Korea - 10.5
6. South Korea - 6.8


Capacity of able bodies (in millions)...

1. China - 375
2. India - 288
3. United States - 73
23. South Korea - 14
46. North Korea - 6

North Korea has pretty well maxed out its capability while other countries haven't really dipped into the pool. What do you have to support your claims of North Korea having the largest standing military in the world?

Ok, looks like I was wrong. But not by much. If you look at this indepth report on Chinas military, China has about 2.4 million military personel (standing army)(1.87 million 1998 numbers. You can find the new number of 2.4 million elseware on the site).

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...na/pla-org.htm

Now, North Korea has just under 1 million military personel.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita.../dprk/army.htm

So the fact that China Has 30 times the population and only 2 1/2 times the size of army is very very scary. I will have to agree with you though that North Korea is pretty much maxed out for militray power.

[oldschoolcalgary]

i don't think the people of China are as beholden to their leadership like that of N.Korea and Kim Jong-ll...there is an element of dissatisfaction with the government that lingers as a result of Tiananmen Square...

the red-flags that exist, IMO, is Taiwan and the whole one-child law and its effects upon the gender balance.

as far as religion goes, the communist governement officially rejects it, however, it does not seek to outlaw or crackdown on any except for that one particular one (whose name escapes me).

[FireFly]

The biggest problem with China will be whether they believe in retalliation by their neighbours. China will likely try and reclaim Taiwan, and the question is, what will the rest of the world do about it? Can you really see anyone deciding to take on the Chinese in a land battle? Hmmmm.... How about launching a nuclear war? Yeah, that's what I thought.

In order to properly 'tame' China, you need a stronger Japan. Japan now has a massive army with all the best technology, but no nukes. Really, it's all they need for their voice to be louder on the international scene.

[Ozy_Flame]

You're exactly right Lanny, I couldn't agree more with your arguements. China has the basis to be a superpower, but I'm not sure they would acheive the status of hegemon anytime soon. This would imply a skewed biases by lesser nations in favor of a Pax Sinica, and that doesn't appear to be on the table anytime soon.

The Pax Americana that currently exists is one that is recognized across the world, especially in the West. The US' emergence from World War II after a period of isolationism, their reconstruction of Western Europe and Japan through the Marshall Plan, Brettonwoods System, and the San Francisco Treaty, and their parity and subsequent 'defeat' of Communism at the end of the Cold War has lead many to believe in their leadership around the world, albeit a shaky one. The Americans have been one of the strongest (and smartest) players on the diplomatic front in the last 50 years, and as such, have earned themselves a spot at the helm of the global pecking order. Now whether that is sustainable or not (and I don't believe it is) is currently a debatable topic, it remains proven that the Pax Americana exists and does not show any signs of ending in the next 20-30 years. I think this is proven when relatively stronger nations such as Britain and Australia come out and praise the US' position in the world. This was evident, for example, when PM John Howard spoke to the Canadian Parliament last month and warned MP's not to become 'complacent' about the US' role in the world and international affairs, where a US presence is far safer for security reasons than simply retreating back into isolationism.

I say this because China, as you said, has to show that democracy can flourish, freedoms can be reinforced, and the political structures must be reformed. China is incredible strong militarily and reasonably strong economically (sans pollution issues and energy dependence), but their political game is extremely lacking and low on credibility at this point in time.

Continued progressive reforms such as the implementation of the Special Economic Zones (SEZ's), the movement towards democratic freedoms (such as respecting Tibetan and Falun Gong cultures), and the reform of the 'One China Policy' will be their tests in the coming future. Taiwan will also be a crux for China's role in the global arena in the coming years.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by FireFly

The biggest problem with China will be whether they believe in retalliation by their neighbours. China will likely try and reclaim Taiwan, and the question is, what will the rest of the world do about it? Can you really see anyone deciding to take on the Chinese in a land battle? Hmmmm.... How about launching a nuclear war? Yeah, that's what I thought.

In order to properly 'tame' China, you need a stronger Japan. Japan now has a massive army with all the best technology, but no nukes. Really, it's all they need for their voice to be louder on the international scene.

WHAT??? Japan's constitution does not allow it to have an offensive military. They have what is called SDF. Self defense force and yes it is modern and well equiped but it would be wiped out in a second if China decided to take it out. They have become a lot like Canada as a Peace keeping military.

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

WHAT??? Japan's constitution does not allow it to have an offensive military. They have what is called SDF. Self defense force and yes it is modern and well equiped but it would be wiped out in a second if China decided to take it out. They have become a lot like Canada as a Peace keeping military.

I've heard that the Japanese military is very advanced and very capable of 'war-fighting'. They are not a bunch of peacekeepers, or so I've been told.

I also heard that Japan had or was going to alter their constitution to allow for foreign deployments like Iraq/Afghanistan. I think there are Japanese naval ships in the Gulf. Of course, I'm not sure on any of that.

[FireFly]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

WHAT??? Japan's constitution does not allow it to have an offensive military. They have what is called SDF. Self defense force and yes it is modern and well equiped but it would be wiped out in a second if China decided to take it out. They have become a lot like Canada as a Peace keeping military.

Don't ever kid yourself. Japan has slowly but surely built an army to rival the greatest in any nation. Sure, it's called a 'salf defense force' but it's not really. If China decided to take Japan out, Japan's SDF would be just fine. Seriously, Japan has been building their army at the US' request since before the US even told them to put the SDF in their Constitution. Previously, they unofficial spending limit was less than 1% of their GDP on military, and now they spend about 5%, and have been since the mid-80's... doesn't sound like much until you realize just how large Japan's economy is. They are currently debating whether or not they should allow for nuclear weapons, previously unheard of being the only nation that has been a victim of them. People wouldn't even mention the words 'atomic bomb' in Japan previously, and closed their eyes to the obvious re-militarization that was occurring. The citizens of Japan don't want to me a militaristic nation, but now that they have a democracy, they realize that they won't be dragged into something they don't want to be involved in. Not only are the Japanese discussing becoming nuclear capable, the people see the need for nuclear weapons in Japan. Do you blame them? They are surrounded by loose cannons!

[FireFly]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

I've heard that the Japanese military is very advanced and very capable of 'war-fighting'. They are not a bunch of peacekeepers, or so I've been told.

I also heard that Japan had or was going to alter their constitution to allow for foreign deployments like Iraq/Afghanistan. I think there are Japanese naval ships in the Gulf. Of course, I'm not sure on any of that.

You are correct. (Although I'm not sure about ships in the Gulf). The Japanese are rearming and I'm just glad they're on our side this time.