Craig's List 2014 Prospects

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Trying to tell myself that but I honestly don't believe the sour taste from finishing bottom 3 has an effect on the culture. It didn't negatively effect Chicago, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, or LA.

Summer comes, the players forget the past, and it's a brand new year.

I can counter with Florida, Islanders and the Oilers that are constantly terrible as a counter point.

(Anaheim also never finished in the bottom three, they had the 2nd pick in 2005 but that was the lockout/lottery year)

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by moon

Who said they have to do anything?

I am saying I would prefer the 1st overall pick even if it means loses over finishing "strong" and getting the 5th pick.

Don't really think it matters much this year. 1-4 (and likely 1-5 discounting Dal Colle not playing centre) seem fairly interchangeable.

[moon]

Originally Posted by FakenHaken

Well then if this is the case why don't we just settle the Stanley Cup using some sort of math formula to determine elite level talent.

I'm sorry you are right moon elite level talent does help with wins in the NHL, but the game has so many more intangibles such as hard work and winning culture attached to it.

What team won the Cup without elite talent?

Who won the Cup with hard work and a winning culture?

[codynw]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I can counter with Florida, Islanders and the Oilers that are constantly terrible as a counter point.

(Anaheim also never finished in the bottom three, they had the 2nd pick in 2005 but that was the lockout/lottery year)

Anaheim got very lucky and drafted two elite players in the same draft at 19th and 28th overall.

[FakenHaken]

Originally Posted by moon

What team won the Cup without elite talent?

Who won the Cup with hard work and a winning culture?

Anaheim I didn't think had the most elite talent to even get to the Stanley Cup. They had to beat a probably a better Detroit more talented team.

LA Kings I don't think had by far the most elite talent to even get to the Stanley Cup either. They were 8th going into the playoffs tough to say they won on talent alone.

A whole lot sometimes has to go right for most teams to simply say Elite Talent wins you the cup. There is more to it than just that.

I'm not suggesting it is just hard work and a winning culture that wins clearly I'd be wrong with just that sort of a blanket statement as well. Yes you do need Elite Talent but you also need intangibles(difficult to measure) as well.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by $ven27

Prime example in Colorado. Gets MacKinnon, next season challenging for the presidents trophy.

Wow, that's quite a stretch of logic there...

If I remember correctly, they also have Duchene, O'Reilly, Landeskog, Stastny....

I am as big of a MacKinnon fan as anyone on here, but suggesting the rebound is because of him is ludicrous.

[moon]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I can counter with Florida, Islanders and the Oilers that are constantly terrible as a counter point.

(Anaheim also never finished in the bottom three, they had the 2nd pick in 2005 but that was the lockout/lottery year)

Those are 3 of the worst, if not the 3 worst, managed teams in the league over the past 5-10 years.

Plus easy to counter that the problem with Florida and NYI is that they don;t draft in the top 3 enough and too often fall in that terrible 5-10 range.

Florida are Florida still bad if instead of from 2004-2007 they draft 2nd, 20th, 3rd instead of 7th, 20th, 6th? They got Olesz, McArdle and Frolik instead they could have had Malkin, McArdle and Toews.

Do you think that better winning culture they had to not finish bottom 3 was worth more than the upgrade to Malkin and Toews?

Even finishing 3rd and getting Gudbranson and Hubredeau would look better if they had tanked worse and got Seguin and Landeskog.

I don;t think tanking alone is the answer because you need smart management to go with it but getting the top 2-3 guys in the draft gives you a lot more leeway in later rounds to not need to hit a HR with other less sure picks.

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Don't really think it matters much this year. 1-4 (and likely 1-5 discounting Dal Colle not playing centre) seem fairly interchangeable.

I think it is a clear 2 maybe 3 with Bennett player draft so I don't think those top 4/5 are interchangable.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Do you have the split of how much the 6th overall is from a team below winning the lottery and actually finishing 6th?

aprox 8% chance the Flames get bumped from 5th to 6th
aprox 8% chance they actually finish 6th

[moon]

Originally Posted by FakenHaken

Anaheim I didn't think had the most elite talent to even get to the Stanley Cup. They had to beat a probably a better Detroit more talented team.

LA Kings I don't think had by far the most elite talent to even get to the Stanley Cup either. They were 8th going into the playoffs tough to say they won on talent alone.

A whole lot sometimes has to go right for most teams to simply say Elite Talent wins you the cup. There is more to it than just that.

I'm not suggesting it is just hard work and a winning culture that wins clearly I'd be wrong with just that sort of a blanket statement as well. Yes you do need Elite Talent but you also need intangibles(difficult to measure) as well.

The Ducks had two of the best defensemen of all time and possibly the best two in the league at the time. They also had Selanne who is decent and Getzlaf/Perry don't suck. Andy Macdonald was a PPG player that year as well.

LA had Doughty, Kopitar, Carter and Richards who all were top level talents, plus arguably the best goalie in the world in Quick.

Both those teams won because they had elite level talent.

[$ven27]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Wow, that's quite a stretch of logic there...

If I remember correctly, they also have Duchene, O'Reilly, Landeskog, Stastny....

I am as big of a MacKinnon fan as anyone on here, but suggesting the rebound is because of him is ludicrous.

Wasn't saying he was the reason they exploded this season, more so that having a "bad" culture from tanking doesn't really transfer from one season to the next unless you have a horrendous management staff (Florida, Edmonton).

[FakenHaken]

Originally Posted by moon

The Ducks had two of the best defensemen of all time and possibly the best two in the league at the time. They also had Selanne who is decent and Getzlaf/Perry don't suck. Andy Macdonald was a PPG player that year as well.

LA had Doughty, Kopitar, Carter and Richards who all were top level talents, plus arguably the best goalie in the world in Quick.

Both those teams won because they had elite level talent.

Yes ok and Detroit who lost to Anaheim had Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, and arguably the best goalie in the world in Dominik Hasek.

LA beat puke puke the Canucks in the first round Sedin(s), Kesler, Edler, even puke puke Bieksa had 44 points for a defencemen.

Listen I'm not blanking my statement by saying if you work hard enough you might win the Stanley Cup. However, elite talent on it's own doesn't either.

[moon]

I am not sure any one has said elite talent alone wins just that you don't win Stanley cups without it.

Also in your example is their a team that has more of a winning culture than the Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Lidstrom Red Wings?

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by moon

I am not sure any one has said elite talent alone wins just that you don't win Stanley cups without it.

Also in your example is their a team that has more of a winning culture than the Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Lidstrom Red Wings?

Where were they drafted again? You don't necessarily need to tank in order to win. The very same examples you brought up haven't tanked - they made good moves in trades and signings, and drafted well.

Where were all of Anaheim's core drafted from? They didn't draft Pronger or Niedermeyer. Getzlaf and Perry weren't lottery picks. They didn't draft Selanne.

This was your original point that started this entire barrage - you think the Flames should tank and finish as close to last as possible, and this effort and resultant wins here and there are hurting them.

There is just as much of an argument to avoid a losing culture, and avoid tanking. You still pick up great players.

I don't know about you, but I will always pick the properly managed and coached club as more likely to become a championship team that 'tankers'.

[FakenHaken]

Originally Posted by moon

I am not sure any one has said elite talent alone wins just that you don't win Stanley cups without it.

Also in your example is their a team that has more of a winning culture than the Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Lidstrom Red Wings?

Very well possible that I misinterpreted your original statement where it seemed you were completely dismissing the intangibles and that the only thing that mattered was elite talent.

My apologies if I had.

Answer to your second question not many maybe the Islanders and Oilers of the 80's. Yes I know where you are leading with your question. I will stop short and say I'm not saying a winning culture wins you a Stanley Cup either but it usually does help.

Anyways, sorry to the forum and back on topic. I sure hope a Reinhart or Bennett slip down to 4 or 5 where I think we will be.

[RM14]

Bennett has racked up a huge PIM. Anybody who has seen his games, is Sam Bennett a fighter? 118 PIMs.

Reinhart has just 11 PIMs.

For comparison, Iggy had 71 PIM in his pre draft year. Then in his final junior year, 136 PIM.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by moon

The Ducks had two of the best defensemen of all time and possibly the best two in the league at the time. They also had Selanne who is decent and Getzlaf/Perry don't suck. Andy Macdonald was a PPG player that year as well.

LA had Doughty, Kopitar, Carter and Richards who all were top level talents, plus arguably the best goalie in the world in Quick.

Both those teams won because they had elite level talent.

Great, but your original point was that it is better to tank to get elite players. The only guy on the Kings that was a lottery pick was Doughty. Niedermayer and Pronger were the only top 5 picks on the Ducks (that actually mattered to the win) and neither of them were drafted by the Ducks.

So of all the elite players on those two cup winners, there was one lottery pick. That doesn't exactly support the conclusion.

Edit: what Calgary4Life said.

[moon]

Sure I guess we can hope we have enough talent in our system so the next time a team decides to trade it's young stars we can take advantage. But every team in league is trying to do that so not sure we are likely to have a great chance of getting them if that happens again. (The Kings also used top 5 pick Schenn to get Richards).

Or we can hope that we have two picks in the greatest draft of all time and we hit on those picks.

Maybe in 10 years Sam wants to play with Max and he comes here.

Or Perhaps a fan base helps run the top defenseman in the league out of town and a moron like Lowe is running the team .

There are certainly more ways than just the top of the draft to get elite talent but they occur a lot less frequently and often involve luck or very specific circumstances to occur.

Ideally we draft 30th each year and restock the shelves with elite talent from late picks but since that seems unlikely and we are going to suck anyways I think it is best that we maximize those times by adding the best players available.

[strombad]

To the question of the value of drafting 1-3 over 4-6 (and in the top 6 in general), here are a few things to consider:

Over the past 15 years the top 6 has shaken down in the following ways (lottery picks and picks acquired through trade included):


Most top 3 picks:
Florida (5)
Winnipeg (5)
Pittsburgh (4)
Tampa Bay (4)
Edmonton (3)
Columbus (3)
Colorado (3)

Other notables who drafted in the top 3: Boston (1), LA (1), St.Louis (1), Anaheim (1)


Teams with the most picks in the 4-6 range:
Columbus (5)
NYI (5)
Nashville (4)
(No other team has more than 2)


Most picks in the top 6 total:
Columbus (8)
NYI (7)
Florida (6)
Winnipeg (6)
Tampa Bay (6)

Teams that haven't drafted in the top 6 for the past 15 years:
Detroit
Dallas


Take from it what you will, but going through the last 15 years has me pretty convinced that whether we draft 1st or 6th, it's not going to have an overly positive or negative impact on our franchise by itself.

[RM14]

I guess Sam Bennett is serving his second suspension of the year. And reading the reader comments, a common opinion is he is a cheap shot artist. Is he Truculent or a meat head?

http://www.thewhig.com/2014/03/11/fr...to-suspensions

[moon]

Originally Posted by strombad

To the question of the value of drafting 1-3 over 4-6 (and in the top 6 in general), here are a few things to consider:

Over the past 15 years the top 6 has shaken down in the following ways (lottery picks and picks acquired through trade included):


Most top 3 picks:
Florida (5)
Winnipeg (5)
Pittsburgh (4)
Tampa Bay (4)
Edmonton (3)
Columbus (3)
Colorado (3)

Other notables who drafted in the top 3: Boston (1), LA (1), St.Louis (1), Anaheim (1)


Teams with the most picks in the 4-6 range:
Columbus (5)
NYI (5)
Nashville (4)
(No other team has more than 2)


Most picks in the top 6 total:
Columbus (8)
NYI (7)
Florida (6)
Winnipeg (6)
Tampa Bay (6)

Teams that haven't drafted in the top 6 for the past 15 years:
Detroit
Dallas


Take from it what you will, but going through the last 15 years has me pretty convinced that whether we draft 1st or 6th, it's not going to have an overly positive or negative impact on our franchise by itself.

Sure but you also have teams with top 3 picks that have won the Cup in the past 15 years:

TB
Chicago (3)
Pittsburgh (4)
Carolina
Los Angeles
Boston

And teams that had top 3 picks but drafted by another organization:

Anaheim

The teams that didn't have any top 3 picks Detroit, Dallas, Colorado, NJ.

So jugding by that if you can get a guy because his team pissed him off so bad he asked to leave or he got greedy (Roy, Pronger, Nieuwendyk, Belfour), have the greatest scouting in a time when that area is not well scouted (Detroit) or have a system that forces the league to change the rules (NJ) then perhaps you don't have to worry about top of the draft talent, but otherwise (and a lot more now that scouting is much more advanced) it appears that top of the draft talent is what is driving teams towards winning cups.

Doughty, Toews, Kane, Crosby, Malkin, Lecavalier, E. Staal. Their teams do not win Cups without them.

The number one thing I get out of your list up there is that if you have moron management (Lowe/Tambellini, Waddell, Milbury, Snow, Sherman) you will not be successul no matter where you draft.

If you have smart guys come in (Shero, Tallon/Bowman, Sakic) your team can take those picks and become a top of the league team.

Hopefully we have ditched our Lowe/Milbury/Waddell (Feaster) and now are moving into the top level GM (Shero et. al)