Blue Jays 2013/14 off season

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Well that's just it. I don't know enough about the draft pick compensation rules to know one way or the other. Their agents may feel that the draft pick compensation is keeping teams from bidding on them and therefore driving the market value down because certain teams won't bid now. For guys like Santana and Jimeniz, they may feel that now is their time to get that 5 year deal vs. a 3 year deal. So a 3 year 39 million dollar deal is more per year, but they might want the security of a 5 year 55 million dollar deal.

Such a massive risk and game of chicken. The thing about MLB is that teams can easily have players come out of nowhere and a hot start, especially for a few months. Imagine a team like Toronto, all of the sudden has guys like Happ or McGowan or Redman contributing at a 4.0 ERA or less in May.

That money that they would have offered either of those two guys is completely gone and with that, one of the biggest suitors for your services.

Teams like the Yankees won't be in the running because they don't have interest in signing guys like that to 5 year deals - even if 2 of their starters got hurt, I highly doubt they would bite on a long term deal.

Already the market is slim for teams looking to sign these two decent pitchers to long term deals and if teams luck out and have some 4th or 5th guys step up to the plate, then they won't be getting the money they are looking for.

[dustyanddaflames]

NM - posted on last page

[Antithesis]

Guys like Santana and Jiminez (and the other guys with draft pick compensation attached) are in tough for a variety of reasons but I expect some of it might be temporary. I'm not too put off by the offers they Jays have been reported to offer because there are two pitchers left at this point so they can play a game of chicken with them. Maybe one of them panics and accepts the deal (or counters with something that is not far off, like 11 million for 3 years). What do you have to lose at this point? That being said, the tune will change when there is only one of them left. I expect both Santana and Jiminez are hoping to be the latter of the two that sign.

Perhaps we will see players begin to accept qualifying offers from teams after the upcoming season. The numbers thrown around (not just in this report but also things that are floating around for Drew) are far less than the 14.1 million in qualifying offers. The draft pick compensation along with the lost signing bonus money seems to be a huge drag on free agent compensation. It makes you wonder what the MLBPA was expecting or hoping for when they agreed to this system.

[GirlySports]

I like how baseball owners wait out free agents and make them come down.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by Antithesis

Guys like Santana and Jiminez (and the other guys with draft pick compensation attached) are in tough for a variety of reasons but I expect some of it might be temporary. I'm not too put off by the offers they Jays have been reported to offer because there are two pitchers left at this point so they can play a game of chicken with them. Maybe one of them panics and accepts the deal (or counters with something that is not far off, like 11 million for 3 years). What do you have to lose at this point? That being said, the tune will change when there is only one of them left. I expect both Santana and Jiminez are hoping to be the latter of the two that sign.

Perhaps we will see players begin to accept qualifying offers from teams after the upcoming season. The numbers thrown around (not just in this report but also things that are floating around for Drew) are far less than the 14.1 million in qualifying offers. The draft pick compensation along with the lost signing bonus money seems to be a huge drag on free agent compensation. It makes you wonder what the MLBPA was expecting or hoping for when they agreed to this system.

I really like the compensation system the MLB uses... It isn't just money, it is draft picks versus the risk of letting a player walk for nothing. I do agree with you, and wonder what next off-season will look like. I don't recall a season where compensation draft picks have hurt free agents like this one.

[RedHot25]

Well last year had similar issues with the compensation

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/top-rem...045058687.html

"Last offseason, there were a number of guys affected in ways different than we expected compared to a freer market to pursue jobs," MLBPA executive director Tony Clark told Yahoo Sports on Thursday. "It appears that's happening again."

In the previous offseason, Adam LaRoche went into January a free agent and re-signed with Washington for what was considered an under-market deal. About a week later, agent Scott Boras – who represents Drew and Morales – finagled a staggering $28 million out of Washington for Rafael Soriano (though because of deferred money it's valued at perhaps $5 million less). Michael Bourn ended up with $48 million (less than expected) when he signed on the eve of spring training with Cleveland, and Kyle Lohse, coming off a year in which he went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA, got just three years and $33 million when Edwin Jackson, who was traded and thus without a qualifying offer, fetched four years and $52 million.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Antithesis

The draft pick compensation along with the lost signing bonus money seems to be a huge drag on free agent compensation. It makes you wonder what the MLBPA was expecting or hoping for when they agreed to this system.

It's the bonus slot money.

The draft pick compensation system has existed for a long time... what's changed is the introduction of draft slot overage penalties. Personally I don't see why MLB GM's are acting like this... draft picks in MLB tend to suck (relative to other sports) high bust rates and big bonuses. I'd easily take Santana and/or Jimenez over what's basically a 2nd round draft pick no question.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Parallex

It's the bonus slot money.

The draft pick compensation system has existed for a long time... what's changed is the introduction of draft slot overage penalties. Personally I don't see why MLB GM's are acting like this... draft picks in MLB tend to suck (relative to other sports) high bust rates and big bonuses. I'd easily take Santana and/or Jimenez over what's basically a 2nd round draft pick no question.

I think GMs are balking at not only the comp, but the players themselves.

Santana / Jimenez have some major question marks as pitchers and both are demanding really high prices, because they happen to be some of the top pitches on the market. In reality these guys are both somewhat inconsistent (Santana less so), but they are only in the positions they are in because of the lack of other quality starters available.

[Antithesis]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

I really like the compensation system the MLB uses... It isn't just money, it is draft picks versus the risk of letting a player walk for nothing. I do agree with you, and wonder what next off-season will look like. I don't recall a season where compensation draft picks have hurt free agents like this one.

I will be very interested to see how the next off-season goes. More than that, as mentioned before, I'd be really interested in knowing what the MLBPA thought they were getting out of this - or is this something they negotiated up to from a system that affected free agent salaries more? This has seemed to have a profoundly negative effect on the salaries that the B-level free agents are receiving (the not-quite-superstars).

Originally Posted by Parallex

It's the bonus slot money.

The draft pick compensation system has existed for a long time... what's changed is the introduction of draft slot overage penalties. Personally I don't see why MLB GM's are acting like this... draft picks in MLB tend to suck (relative to other sports) high bust rates and big bonuses. I'd easily take Santana and/or Jimenez over what's basically a 2nd round draft pick no question.

I'm with you 100% here. This seems to be an effort on MLB's behalf to increase parity. Taking away the 1st round pick bonus money has ramifications for your entire draft beyond losing the 1st round pick. It seems to be an attempt to make it so that you can sign a big free agent or have a great draft but not both.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Santana / Jimenez have some major question marks as pitchers and both are demanding really high prices, because they happen to be some of the top pitches on the market. In reality these guys are both somewhat inconsistent (Santana less so), but they are only in the positions they are in because of the lack of other quality starters available.

Sure... but we now live in a world where Lincecum (who hasn't been a good pitcher for years), Arroyo (who's both old and only averagish), and Garza (Injury Prone) all make 12M+ per year. With all the TV money injected into the system that's the new normal and if that's what's normal for those guys then Santana and Jimenez are "worth" a high price.

Not what was rumored to be their asking price at the onset of free agency but certainly enough that GM's shouldn't be balking over surrendering what is basically a 8% chance at a quality big leaguer. (a draft pick in the 20-40 slot).

Taking away the 1st round pick bonus money has ramifications for your entire draft beyond losing the 1st round pick

Only if you could get someone to sign under the slot assigned to that pick. Which means that you're basically picking a player that has some kind of flaw that undermines his leverage.

[Antithesis]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Only if you could get someone to sign under the slot assigned to that pick. Which means that you're basically picking a player that has some kind of flaw that undermines his leverage.

Sorry - I guess I'm thinking along the lines of, if you just lost your first round pick, that's one thing, because then you could assign the bonus money to your 2nd round pick. Perhaps that player fell down because they were expecting too big a bonus. I didn't say what I meant properly at all - that it is the combination of the first round pick and the bonus money that is a problem. A long-winded way of saying I agree with your original point!

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Sure... but we now live in a world where Lincecum (who hasn't been a good pitcher for years), Arroyo (who's both old and only averagish), and Garza (Injury Prone) all make 12M+ per year. With all the TV money injected into the system that's the new normal and if that's what's normal for those guys then Santana and Jimenez are "worth" a high price.

Not what was rumored to be their asking price at the onset of free agency but certainly enough that GM's shouldn't be balking over surrendering what is basically a 8% chance at a quality big leaguer. (a draft pick in the 20-40 slot).

On October 31, 2012, Santana was traded to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for left-handed minor league reliever Brandon Sisk. The Angels picked up the $13 million option on Santana prior to making the trade, and agreed to cover an undisclosed portion of that amount for the Royals

The Angels essentially gave Santana away last year for a guy who is now 28 and has never pitched in the Majors. But now, he is worth a long term extension.

Jimenez has also had terrible 2011 / 2012 seasons.

At least with a guy like Lincecum, he has 2 Cy Youngs and some major hardware to his name and has still has a good chance of turning things around. I'd be much more willing to commit 18 million to him than 12 million to either one of Santana or Jimenez.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

The Angels essentially gave Santana away last year for a guy who is now 28 and has never pitched in the Majors. But now, he is worth a long term extension.

The Jays at one time designated Edwin Encarnation for assignment... 1 year and 1 good performance later giving him a long term extension. It happens all the time.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Parallex

The Jays at one time designated Edwin Encarnation for assignment... 1 year and 1 good performance later giving him a long term extension. It happens all the time.

They gave him a 3 year contract for 9 million per year. Which is what they are rumored to be offering for these two. Encarnacion was in the middle of a silver slugger calibre season when he signed the extension. Not to mention 20 home runs and 787 ops seasons are not bad for production which is what he produced the two seasons prior. I would be more inclined to go for Jimenez myself, but there is still risk as he had two bad seasons prior to last year. Plus I have my doubts that he is the age he claims, but thats me.

[Parallex]

Whelp... there goes Jimenez. On a pretty reasonable deal too.

[Caged Great]

Fire AA and start a new rebuild.

Blow it up.

[Cheese]

4 Years 48 mill...
http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=444082

[dustyanddaflames]

Not a bad dollar figure - 4 years is a year or two more than I would like to have seen the Jays sign him to. Sounds like the Jays never offered Jimenez a deal, and it's really starting to look like it is status quo for Anthopolous entering the season. I thought of the two remaining SP, Jimenez would be the one the Jays would target, as rumors are out there that the Toronto brass weren't all that high on Santana.

Curious to see what this does to the Santana market - really the last notable free agent SP available (unless you count Capuano).

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

Curious to see what this does to the Santana market - really the last notable free agent SP available (unless you count Capuano).

I don't really count Capuano... he's basically Happ (a legit #4/#5 lefty starter).

Don't think the Jays would be interested in Capuano. That would leave Morrow as the only traditional righty in the rotation. If that weren't an issue the only benefit to signing Capuano would be that it would allow Hutchison/Stroman to be injury depth at the beginning of the season.

[flambers]

What an odd off-season, would have never guessed the Jays would only make one real change which is at the Catcher position.

My wish list, was for the Jays to add two quality starters (pitchers)....