[News] Flames will keep Monahan for the rest of the season

[doctajones428]

Please send down MacKinnon please send down MacKinnon please send down MacKinnon...

[TheSutterDynasty]

Originally Posted by MattyC

The Flames are not sorely lacking in offense. If Monahan is struggling we have Cammy, Hudler, Stempniak, Jones, Glencross, Stajan, all guys who have and can put up decent points. Hudler and Stempniak are off to good starts, Cammy and Jones have both missed the majority of the opening part of the season but have looked good in their limited time. Stajan was arguably the teams best player last year. Glencross is inconsistent, but he will get his points. The Oilers youngsters were supplimented with even more youngsters not realizing that developing a two-way game (required of most if not all forwards) generally takes more time to shore up, but none of them have been given that chance because they kept getting driven into the ground and driven past by NHL calibre players. Monahan already has the two-way game.

And to the second point, plenty of examples I would think, two off the top of my head are Getzlaf (got a lot of flack for his lack of effort in his last year of junior), and Colten Teubert who I got to see completely turn it off post-draft first hand as I knew someone on the Pats at the time. In fact I remember saying to the player I know that if Teubert thought his NHL team wasn't keeping a close eye on that he was out of his mind and he won't be in the NHL if that's the way he's going to push. And low and behold, has the guy played a single NHL game?

I can't help but think people are being a tad optimistic about this year. But that comes down to opinion.

Good examples, though Getzlaf turned out pretty good. Did Teubert have a past of slacking off before he was drafted?

[Fan in Exile]

I really think the arguments on the importance of Monahan going to WJC are based on emotion, not a rational belief that it provides a significant step in development.

Sure if you're in junior or NCAA, playing in WJC is a big step but not if you've already played a half-season in the NHL. Not that it's not worthwhile but if it's such an important developmental step, why isn't Granlund in the Flames line-up instead of Monahan?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

The press release is the funny part...

Do the Flames just not understand how shooting percentage works? It'd be fantastic if he was scoring goals and shooting 10% or something. At 28+%, you're basically bragging about the fact that his production is doomed to slow by half as a best case scenario if he's lucky.

It's probably a pretty safe bet that they understand how it works.

Sure the number is unsustainable, but it still demonstrates that when he gets the chances, he can bury them.

Also, it demonstrates that he gets to areas of the ice that allow him to be successful.

Finally, the percentage can normalize from an increase in shots, not just from a decrease in goals.

Arguing something, purely based on a single stat, generally makes for an incomplete argument.

One more thing on shooting percentage: while a number like that is unsustainable, what some people seem to be missing is that all goal scorers go through streaks where their percentage is high - it's called being on a roll. But when that happens at the beginning of the year (and is thus more readily apparent) some people get all bent out of shape.

The difference between goal scorers and non-goal scorers is that the goal scorers go through stretches where the puck does in fact go in a lot and their shooting percentage is temporarily high. Bottom 6 guys don't get those stretches.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Actually, Feaster said they will treat them the same way.

The difference is that Sieloff is in Abby and if he is still in Abby, they would let him go. But if he is in Calgary, playing 15 minutes or more a night, they probably wouldn't let him go.

Same for Monahan, except Monahan will not be in Abby, no matter what.

Is he saying that now? because when it was announced that Sieloff would not go back to juniors, Feaster said they told Hockey USA that Sieloff would be made available for the world juniors. Did not mention any conditions.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by TheSutterDynasty

I can't help but think people are being a tad optimistic about this year. But that comes down to opinion.

Good examples, though Getzlaf turned out pretty good. Did Teubert have a past of slacking off before he was drafted?

I'm just saying that Monahan was not expected to come in and carry the offensive load, and still isn't. The popular sentiment coming into the year was that Monahan would likely play 3rd group type minutes with sheltered competition and he has shown himself above and beyond that. The team hasn't forced him into that role, he's done it himself.

I can't really speak to Teubert before (outside of him being a doosh), but I definitely noticed it afterwards. Yeah Getzlaf turned out great obviously, but he did slack ass due to knowing he's NHL worthy. Not saying Mono would but ya.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Is he saying that now? because when it was announced that Sieloff would not go back to juniors, Feaster said they told Hockey USA that Sieloff would be made available for the world juniors. Did not mention any conditions.

I am reiterating what he said today.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Table 5

• Gets to directly compete against elite players his age to see where he stands.

Why should anyone care about "where he stands" among a group of young players, 90% of whom will NEVER play a single game in the NHL? I would think that evaluating Monahan agains NHL competition is tremendously more valuable. We already know everything we need to know about how Monahan compares to other hockey players under 20-years old.

Originally Posted by Table 5

• Gets the chance to possibly play in a high-pressure sudden-death situation.

He has had that experience in many other high-level hockey tournaments, and in international competitions.

Originally Posted by Table 5

• Gets to represent his country and possibly fulfill a dream (what hockey kid doesnt have great memories of watching the WJCs?).

He has already represented his country, and will almost certainly have plenty more opportunities to do so again. We really have no idea about how much Monahan pines to play in the WJC, but I suspect that he is already presently fulfilling the biggest dream of his young life right now. If he were still in Ottawa? That would be a different story, but for every kid in his position, the NHL is the goal and HE HAS MADE IT. The WJC is just a stop along the way.

Originally Posted by Table 5

• Gets the chance to develop his leadership skills.

The value of this is probably negligible. It's a two-week tournament, and he is only 19-years-old. I seriously doubt that the "leadership experience" gained in two weeks around the New Year of 2014 will have any bearing whatsoever on his ability to lead when he is approaching his mid-twenties; when this team should be starting to re-round into contending form; when it really counts.

Originally Posted by Table 5

• Gets to see hot swedish babes.

This part of the world is DARK in the first week of January. There is not much to see at this time of year, and besides, I suspect that this benefit is in fairly sharp contradiction with the supposed "leadership skills" that he is supposed to be simultaneously developing.

Originally Posted by Table 5

I think those are pretty good reasons. The WJC's might not be the NHL playoffs, but I think they are a great learning experience for a 19 year old.

Maybe. Maybe not. I'm not convinced that Monahan has anything to gain from going, and I am just as convinced that he has little to lose from staying in the NHL. Let's be honest here: the great incentive for Monahan to participate in the WJC is for the fans. We as fans would get a thrill out of seeing him there; beyond that, I don't think the experience itself is all that beneficial for him from a developmental perspective.

[superfarmer]

Good luck the rest of the way Marijuanahan

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Okay but I don't see the upside in him going.

He'll go down, adjust to a slower paced game, then have to come back to the NHL and adjust again to the faster paced game. Yes, at the end of the day it won't matter but it all seems pointless to me. He's in the NHL, that's the goal, keep playing him there.

I think playing top minutes in a medal game against Russia or the USA would be a better learning experience for a young player than game 42 of the NHL schedule against the Minnesota Wild. Development is not all about the quality of the opposition - it's about being put into different roles and facing different situations.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by TheSutterDynasty

I can't help but think people are being a tad optimistic about this year. But that comes down to opinion...

I don't think there was ever much doubt that the Flames would be able to score this year. Where they will continue to struggle is on the other side of the puck.

Monahan is earning his minutes and his increased responsibility. I've been pretty impressed at how the coaching staff has handled him so far this season, and I suspect that if and when he begins to struggle, they will address this accordingly. In short, I don't see an issue here.

[EYE_Overstand]

the TSN comments on the Sean Moneyhands article are just jokes

ya i typed "Moneyhands"

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The difference between goal scorers and non-goal scorers is that the goal scorers go through stretches where the puck does in fact go in a lot and their shooting percentage is temporarily high. Bottom 6 guys don't get those stretches.

Really? Because along with Monahan, the guys in the top 15 in shooting percentage so far include Chris Kelly, Boyd Gordon, Brad Richardson, Marcel Goc and Franz Nielsen. Aren't they going through the same type of stretch as Monahan right now?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I think playing top minutes in a medal game against Russia or the USA would be a better learning experience for a young player than game 42 of the NHL schedule against the Minnesota Wild...

I think it really depends on the player. Monahan is such a solid kid that I don't think there is a right or a wrong decision to be made here. The WJC would probably be good for him, but missing out and playing games in the NHL isn't going to derail his development. This decision will probably be made based on a variety of factors pertaining to the team, the schedule, the standings, and the player, and I honestly think that there is no downside here either way.

[TjRhythmic]

Originally Posted by TheSutterDynasty

I can't help but think people are being a tad optimistic about this year. But that comes down to opinion.

Good examples, though Getzlaf turned out pretty good. Did Teubert have a past of slacking off before he was drafted?

I can't help but think some people are being a tad pessimistic about this year. But that comes down to opinion.

I like the move. It's not like The Flames gave him his spot. He went out and earned it. He's being relied on for offense because he is working his ass off out there to score, and the coaching staff is seeing it and putting him out there.

He's being developed, and all credit to Monahan, he wants to get better and is doing everything in his power to develop, fast tracking his own development. It's not the team's job to develop prospects as much as everyone thinks it is. The team offers the tools, yet it's up to the prospect to work their ass off, and take every opportunity that is offered to them and run with it.

Monahan is a NHL'er, he's proved it, and I hope to watch him for a long time in a Flames uni.

[H2SO4(aq)]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

The press release is the funny part...

Do the Flames just not understand how shooting percentage works? It'd be fantastic if he was scoring goals and shooting 10% or something. At 28+%, you're basically bragging about the fact that his production is doomed to slow by half as a best case scenario if he's lucky.

Well not necessarily. Theoretically he can take double the shots and maintain the same production and his scoring % will drop to a more reasonable number.

[CaptainCrunch]

If we do hockey canada a solid and send him to the world juniors it should be conditional on Emile Poirer making the team so they can play together on the same line.

If they are not willing to do this small favor for our organization then no Monahan for them.

Oh and the other small favor that they can provide for us is a long teasing training camp followed by a brutal and humiliating cut of Hunter Shinkaruk

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

Really? Because along with Monahan, the guys in the top 15 in shooting percentage so far include Chris Kelly, Boyd Gordon, Brad Richardson, Marcel Goc and Franz Nielsen. Aren't they going through the same type of stretch as Monahan right now?

First of all, nice cherry picking.

So they are having nice stretches, great. I they continue to have stretches where they are putting the puck in the net, then they will prove to be decent scorers in the NHL. If they don't, they won't.

Are you actually trying to argue anything in particular? Are you trying to suggest that, because Franz Nielson also has a high shooting percentage that Monahan is a similar player? Because I could do that too - look, he is tied with Tarasenko!

The point I was making is that, because a player's shooting percentage is high after a few games, doesn't mean he will stop scoring.

It might - he might be a talentless hack who has been really lucky. But mean reversion does not at all suggest that that is the only possible outcome.

[Miniac]

Congrats to Sean Monahan!

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The point I was making is that, because a player's shooting percentage is high after a few games, doesn't mean he will stop scoring. It might - he might be a talentless hack who has been really lucky. But mean reversion does not at all suggest that that is the only possible outcome.

Okay, yes, this is true. However, in this case, it's a bit ridiculous. In order to score at the same rate but with a shooting percentage of 14% (i.e. top 50 in the NHL territory), he would need to shoot more than twice as much. Do you think that more than doubling his shot output is at all likely? Do you think it's at all likely it'll increase by anything CLOSE to that amount?

If so, I would note that Monahan's getting 8.1 shots per 60 minutes of ice time. That places him 76th in the NHL. Doubling his current rate would basically make him Alex Ovechkin. Even assuming he were to jump up around 10-11, a 40% increase in shot rate, would not come close to making up for a drop in shooting percentage that is basically certain.

I guess my point is that when your SH% is that high and you have no record of being anywhere close to that you're basically waving a red flag that your current production isn't remotely likely to continue. I mean, if it was Stamkos doing it you'd think "Okay, that's still pretty high but it's Stammer so it's not totally anomalous". For a rookie? If you're not wearing rose coloured glasses you know exactly what the safe bet is as far as how this story ends.