U20 tournament - Junior Evaluation Camp (Sieloff, Gillies, Monahan, Poirier & Janko)

[jaymac106]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

Out of curiosity, would anyone here actually trade both Jankowski and Sieloff for TT? Given where the current status of the flames is, everything about that trade and resultant draft picks seems like a great move by the flames.

I wouldn't! Think when Jankowski gets development time, he will turn into a solid pick. Sieloff is already by all accounts a good team guy and a potential leader type, gritty and smart! No brainer for me.

[Ring of Fire]

Teravainen seems to be a very similar player to Markus Granlund. They had very similar stats in their draft +1 years. I am much happier having Jankowski and Sieloff at this point in time.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

I would trade Jankowski and Seiloff for Girgensons.

He was the guy I wanted the Flames to get, he was available with the Flames pick, and he was the guy that was selected with that pick.

I think Buffalo made the right decision in trading up to get him.

His numbers weren't great in the AHL, but he was the 2nd youngest player in the league, was recovering from a concussion, and improved drastically through the year until he was Rochester's best player in the playoffs.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

I would trade Jankowski and Seiloff for Girgensons.

He was the guy I wanted the Flames to get, he was available with the Flames pick, and he was the guy that was selected with that pick.

I think Buffalo made the right decision in trading up to get him.

His numbers weren't great in the AHL, but he was the 2nd youngest player in the league, was recovering from a concussion, and improved drastically through the year until he was Rochester's best player in the playoffs.

Seriously? he scored 3 insignificant goals while they were getting crushed in a 1st round sweep. Girgensons potental is most likely a 3 line center and you would trade both Jankowski and Seiloff for him?

[albertGQ]

BPA is not the best player at that time. It is best player/prospect for the future

If it was BPA at that time, the majority of picks would be 22-27 year old adults, not pimply 18 year old teenagers.

[dustygoon]

The answer can always be found in math class.....

[Expected Value of player] = [the player's future potential] x [probability of reaching that potential]

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by T@T

Seriously?

“Best player on the team,” Amerks forward Cody McCormick said. “Best player on the ice.”

"[Girgensons and Larsson] were probably our best forwards from start to finish in this series" - Chadd Cassidy, Amerk's head coach

he scored 3 insignificant goals while they were getting crushed in a 1st round sweep.

Just so I'm 100% clear on what you're saying... a game-tying goal in a playoff elimination game, a game that then goes to overtime, is a meaningless goal? That's what you're saying?

The other two goals were his team's first goal of the series, and the second was also a tying goal. Yes, the Amerk's got crushed and swept, they only scored 5 goals in a 3 game series. 60% of them were scored by Girgensons. And contrary to being meaningless goals, every single one of them was "clutch" (a series opener, and 2 game-tying goals)

Girgensons potental is most likely a 3 line center and you would trade both Jankowski and Seiloff for him?

Guess how many full-time NHL defencemen drafted in the last 15 years had worse major-junior production than Sieloff? Well, if Mark Fistric finds another NHL job (after being flipped for a 5th rounder and then not renewed by the *Edmonton Oilers*), then the answer will be... ONE. If you can think the game at the level needed to be an NHLer, you can put up points in juniors. Historically, the chances of any player with Sieloff's box stats ever becoming an impact player in the NHL are approximately 0%.

I have never heard anyone outside of CP mention Jankowski without using words like "high risk", "long-term project", etc.

The consensus on Girgensons is that he is a virtual lock to be an NHLer, probably on the middle two lines. I think he will most likely be a 2nd or 3rd liner.

Nobody has ever said that Jankowski is a lock to be an NHLer. In fact, he was considered a riskier-than-normal pick at a draft position that has a 50-60% chance of landing any kind of NHLer. Meaning that he "most likely" wont even stick in the big show. And he's done nothing spectacular since then to suggest he's beating the odds (yet, he still has time of course). Thats the whole reason why he's considered high risk. Because he "most likely" wont be a 1st or 2nd liner. If he was "most likely" to be a 1st or 2nd liner, he wouldn't be high-risk, he'd be a blue-chipper.

I think Jankowski is most likely to be a replacement-level NHLer at best.
I think Seiloff will most likely never see the NHL full-time.

I think Girgensons will most likely be a 2nd or 3rd liner.

So yeah, I would gladly make that trade any day of the week.

[SuperMatt18]

Girgensons was the safe pick. The strong 3rd line center with limited offensive upside.

I take the potential of Sieloff and Jankowski over that every day of the week.

[edslunch]

Well argued Backcheck. I hope you're proven wrong

[Coach]

I think we're more banking on Sieloff striking fear into the hearts o others than putting the puck in the net. Don't know much about Girgensons, but IMO we have 2 future NHL players in Janko and Sieloff. And, if they do prove to be NHL calibre, they are likely to be key players for the Flames. I'm ok with that.

[tempz]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Guess how many full-time NHL defencemen drafted in the last 15 years had worse major-junior production than Sieloff? Well, if Mark Fistric finds another NHL job (after being flipped for a 5th rounder and then not renewed by the *Edmonton Oilers*), then the answer will be... ONE. If you can think the game at the level needed to be an NHLer, you can put up points in juniors. Historically, the chances of any player with Sieloff's box stats ever becoming an impact player in the NHL are approximately 0%.

Enjoyed this post a lot, I love when people defend their arguments. Couple of questions/comments on this part. Tyler Wotherspoon had 2 goals 10 assists in 60+ games the year we drafted him. Are you saying he's a bust by this theory too? Also curious how you pulled your stats for that. One season of 45 games is a really small sample size, there are a lot of factors that could play in to his box stats being low. Powerplay time, being on a complete #### team (Windsor finished near the bottom of the OHL), etc. etc.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by tempz

Enjoyed this post a lot, I love when people defend their arguments. Couple of questions/comments on this part. Tyler Wotherspoon had 2 goals 10 assists in 60+ games the year we drafted him. Are you saying he's a bust by this theory too? Also curious how you pulled your stats for that. One season of 45 games is a really small sample size, there are a lot of factors that could play in to his box stats being low. Powerplay time, being on a complete #### team (Windsor finished near the bottom of the OHL), etc. etc.

There is a strong correlation between defense man scoring in junior and NHL success.

Read this analysis of all the CHL dmen taken in the first 3 rounds from 1999 to 2008:

http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/201...and-draft.html

The author went on to show that dmen who had low scoring in their draft year but still went to have NHL success as he defines it had significant scoring in their junior years after being drafted:

http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/201...eman-post.html

The only exceptions were Fistric and Luke Schenn (and Schenn was because he immediately started in the NHL after drafting).

So by that analysis, Wotherspoon has a good chance to be an NHLer while Kanzig and Sieloff have low chances.

That being said, I think the reason the correlation exists is because scoring in junior shows a level of intelligence that helps players adjust to the NHL. One of the strengths of Kanzig and Sieloff is supposedly their hockey smarts (or at least thats what the Flames think), so we will have to wait and see them develop.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think we're more banking on Sieloff striking fear into the hearts o others than putting the puck in the net.

It doesn't matter what role you want him in. If a player can't anticipate play well enough to put up some points in juniors, he can't anticipate play well enough to be an effective NHL defenceman.

Think of the least offensive players in the NHL. Just off the top of my head, Cory Sarich? Put up a point-per-game season in the WHL. Hal Gill was drafted out a US high-school league where he put up 50 points in 20 games, and in college hockey he got over 0.5 points-per-game before going pro.

If you can't make smart enough plays to put up points in juniors, you don't think the game at the level needed to be an effective NHLer.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

So what would you say his potential is?

#1C... not that it's his draft year.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by SebC

#1C... not that it's his draft year.

Oh boy SebC... Oh boy.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

The answer can always be found in math class.....

[Expected Value of player] = sum { ( [the UFA-replacement cap hit for a player's future potential for a particular season] - [expected cap hit at that potential for that season] ) x [probability of reaching that potential in that season] }

fyp

BPA is the guy who will deliever the most total value above his contract(s). The reason guys can have positive expected value is because their ELCs are not market price, their 2nd contracts (non-arbitration) are not market price, and their RFA years are not market price.

A guy who is needs lots of development is unlikely to be the BPA, as he has fewer years to deliver value over his contract before he hits UFA.

[Hockey_Ninja]

SebC went full ######. You never go full ######.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by SebC

A guy who is needs lots of development is unlikely to be the BPA, as he has fewer years to deliver value over his contract before he hits UFA.

Even if I agreed at all with the rest of your post, which I don't, this right here is wrong.

With the 27 or 7 UFA rule a "fully developed" player could be UFA as early as 24.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

It doesn't matter what role you want him in. If a player can't anticipate play well enough to put up some points in juniors, he can't anticipate play well enough to be an effective NHL defenceman.

Think of the least offensive players in the NHL. Just off the top of my head, Cory Sarich? Put up a point-per-game season in the WHL. Hal Gill was drafted out a US high-school league where he put up 50 points in 20 games, and in college hockey he got over 0.5 points-per-game before going pro.

If you can't make smart enough plays to put up points in juniors, you don't think the game at the level needed to be an effective NHLer.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens then. As it stands Sieloff is considered a beast in Junior and is favorite to captain the US WJC team. Obviously he's not going to be quarterbacking the PP, but he's obviously got something that makes him very valuable to a team. I'm looking forward to seeing it. I think Sieloff, Cundari, Gio and Brodie will be the cornerstone of our blueline in a few years. And people may think that's crappy, but its 3 years away so no one really knows anything do they?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by SebC

fyp

BPA is the guy who will deliever the most total value above his contract(s). The reason guys can have positive expected value is because their ELCs are not market price, their 2nd contracts (non-arbitration) are not market price, and their RFA years are not market price.

A guy who is needs lots of development is unlikely to be the BPA, as he has fewer years to deliver value over his contract before he hits UFA.

What a subjective sentence...

If he takes longer to develop, by the time he gets to those UFA years, he's not making max dollars because gasp he's not done cooking yet. And if he's the bum you think he is, he's never going to get max dollars anyway, he'll be lucky to get Backlund's last deal coming off his ELC.

Support our guy. Are you really that bent that we didn't get Teravainen, Ceci, Olli Maata, Brendan Gaunce, or Malcolm Subban?