U20 tournament - Junior Evaluation Camp (Sieloff, Gillies, Monahan, Poirier & Janko)

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Which I still count as small or below average. Obviously he's not as tiny as guys like Gionta, St. Louis, but 5'11 guys can get physically dominated in the NHL. Sven had problems fighting through checking last year at the same height. I consider Baertschi a small winger at 5'11 too

Sure, he's still small and has less muscle than Bärtschi for example. At the same time, I don't quite follow why Jankowski isn't supposed to look as good against U20 competition. Both have their question marks, both have a lot of room to develop, and they're almost exactly the same age.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by puckluck2

I'm not sure how I'm confusing the terms when Jankowski was a big off the board pick with the huge majority of scouts not rating him even close to where he was picked.

BPA has always meant best player available at the time of the draft which means the team is taking the safer pick instead of a gamble.

We have no idea where the "vast majority of scouts" thought Jankowski would be ranked. I'm sure even on a team that didn't like him or have him in their first couple rounds there might have been a guy or two on their team that really liked him.

The Flames obviously loved him, and I'd be surprised if a team or two in the late first or early 2nd round didn't like him there either.

Also, there is no board.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Not sure WTF you're talking about. Most centres taken are not potential #1 centres. In fact it's rare to find a potential #1 centre taken outside the top 10 of the draft except in deep years.

Pretty clear our scouts thought Jankowski was the BPA. Hopefully he will be.

The "ceiling and likelihood" method is evaluating talent is an approximation. An absolute ceiling doesn't exist. What you actually have in a prospect is a "potential function", i.e. each different level of potential has its own (non-zero) likelihood.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

Sure, he's still small and has less muscle than Bärtschi for example. At the same time, I don't quite follow why Jankowski isn't supposed to look as good against U20 competition. Both have their question marks, both have a lot of room to develop, and they're almost exactly the same age.

It is because Teuvo has been playing against men in a pro league. Jankowski was playing high school hockey the season before last. Huge difference in the level of hockey. Teuvo should be much further developed because of this. Jankowski has more room to grow as a player because he only just started playing high level hockey.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by SebC

The "ceiling and likelihood" method is evaluating talent is an approximation. An absolute ceiling doesn't exist. What you actually have in a prospect is a "potential function", i.e. each different level of potential has its own (non-zero) likelihood.

Do you think Max Reinhart has first line centre potential?

[trublmaker]

Originally Posted by puckluck2

When someone says best player available they're usually talking about BPA at the draft hence the usage of that term.

Jankowski was not the best player available on the day he was drafted.

to the Flames scouts he was and that's all that matters.

[trublmaker]

Originally Posted by puckluck2

They must have been really dumb to think Jankowski was the BPA at the time. He might have had the highest ceiling at the time but it's ludicrous to think he was the BPA, he was picked as a long term project and a big gamble.

so your opinion of bpa is better than a team of pro hockey scouts/explayers who have years of experience "scouting" because why???

[Sylvanfan]

Years ago the Oilers drafted a winger named Jani Rita in the first round. At that time he would have seemed pretty obvious as a BPA type. He looked pretty good dominating Canada at the WJC a year later. Meanwhile Some kid is playing house league hockey, and is on nobody's radar.

Eventually the Oilers trade a 24 year Rita to get Dick Tarnstrom, who they later traded for the same house league hockey player, and probably still wish they had this guy today. Shows how hard it can be when a guy who was the best guy as a teen ager ended up well behind a complete unknown 10 years later. Back in 2001 I can't imagine anyone making a Glencross for Rita trade. Today that GM would look pretty schrewd.

[dammage79]

Jankowski fit the bill for the needs of the organization. Which made him bpa regardless. I was fully in the TT camp when he was there at 14. Even had a wtf moment when they traded down. Today though I am very happy they did what they did because it has made the prospect pool that much stronger over all. If there was a poll made right now I do not think there would be a majority vote saying we would have rather had them take TT or even Maata over Jankowski and Seiloff.
Kind of surprised this is still even an argument over a draft that happened two years ago.
Bottom line is, Jankowski was BPA for the Flames that year and that's all that matters.

[Hockey_Ninja]

I think we should wait until both hit the NHL before getting stressed about taking Janko over TT.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Pierre was over the top in analysis once again.

Passing on Erne by Roy meant sweet FA when you understand that the Avs have a severe dearth of prospects on D, as evidenced by the rest of that draft. Roy and Sakic both know that you dont win in the NHL without a solid defense and good goaltending, so that is the route they took, particularly when you look at the depth they already have up front of good young players. Mackinnon was a no brainer, but beyond that they drafted for orginizational need.

I feel Erne was a victim of over scouting to the point where there were supposed character flaws that kind of snowballed on a guy that was considered a top 15 player in the draft. There will be some teams that will regret passing on him.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Do you think Max Reinhart has first line centre potential?

It's unlikely that he will ever be #1C, but not impossible.

[Hank Hill]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Pierre was over the top in analysis once again.

Passing on Erne by Roy meant sweet FA when you understand that the Avs have a severe dearth of prospects on D, as evidenced by the rest of that draft. Roy and Sakic both know that you dont win in the NHL without a solid defense and good goaltending, so that is the route they took, particularly when you look at the depth they already have up front of good young players. Mackinnon was a no brainer, but beyond that they drafted for orginizational need.

Erne was suspended by his own team last year, questions about his attitude was widespread among scouts which is why Colorado and a lot of teams passed on him as a first rounder. Avs lack of D is irrelevant, they obviously believe in BPA which is why the passed on Seth Jones.

[Jiggy]

In the long run I think having Janokowski & Sieloff will be more beneficial than having TT. I think people forget we wouldn't have got Sieloff if we didn't trade down.

[Itse]

We already have a slighty worrying number of small or smallish forwards among our top prospects.

For that reason alone I much prefer having Jankowski in our system over Teräväinen.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Hockey_Ninja

I think we should wait until both hit the NHL before getting stressed about taking Janko over TT.

I never had TT on my radar. We didn't need another smallish LW so missing out on him didn't mean anything. I was looking at defence, either another Finn in Oli Maatta or Cody Ceci.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Mike F

In my experience, drafting the BPA means not taking position or organizational needs into consideration, and just taking the best prospect, be it centre, wing, defenseman, or goalie.

What experience is that? How many pre-draft meetings have you sat in where teams have put their list together? I would think that the diversity in the draft order seems to say that teams not only order their selections based on their interpretation of skills, but also based on organizational needs. I would also think that the recent video on the Flyers' meeting kind of puts the whole BPA argument to bed about how they decide what is qualifies as the BPA. Need of a big defenseman certainly changed the order of their selection. The whole concept of "the board" and "best player available" is decided by the team, not some list compiled by ISS, Redline or Bob McKenzie.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by SebC

It's unlikely that he will ever be #1C, but not impossible.

So what would you say his potential is?

[TheDebaser]

People seem confused so I'll attempt to lay it out.

BPA is the player that will have the most NHL value. It's that simple. If Seth Jones projects to be a great #1 Offensive Defenseman that dominates games and Mackinnon projects to be a great #1 center, but Jones's NHL value makes it so that you would never trade Jones for Mackinnon than Jones is the BPA. If the avalanche hypothetically acknowledged that reality but decided that Mackinnon was the piece they needed/appealed to them more at the moment then they did not draft according to BPA.

With Jankowski, the flames believed that other teams had a flawed view of what makes a good player. They looked at Janko's future potential and decided that when he is fully matured as an NHL product he would be worth much more than other teams are giving him credit for. That allowed them to move down and grab him and a second rounder. If they correctly project him then in 2018 trading Janko for Terraveiniiannaann could possibly seem like it would actually be a bad idea. If that's the case than Janko was the BPA at 14.

Keep this in mind

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_NH...raft#Round_one

According to the logic of some posters in this thread, the flames traded up in order to draft the Best Goaltender Available. Clearly they did not. Drafting BPA well takes a deeper understanding of what a BPA actually is, something the flames seem to be doing a pretty good job of lately.

[PaperBagger'14]

Out of curiosity, would anyone here actually trade both Jankowski and Sieloff for TT? Given where the current status of the flames is, everything about that trade and resultant draft picks seems like a great move by the flames.