The Flames and Oilers rebuilds similar beginings

[Flamefan1]

Originally Posted by Izzle

I dont think Hall got tagged in his third year. Remember he also played in the AHL, and while the competition is less than the NHL, he did produce playing against pros and men. I expect Monahan to be a bonafide 2 way player in the NHL, but till he does that in the NHL, its disingenuous at best to be comparing him to players that have already succeeded in the NHL.


You do realize that Nuge got his injury from smashing into the boards. I am assuming you implied that he got crushed from a hit another player had on him. Say that he is weak that his body cant hold up to the NHL grind, but to say that he got crushed is once again disingenuous. Here is a report stating that his on ice awareness is off the charts, which I choose to interpret that he can use it to be elusive:http://espn.go.com/blog/dallasstars/...gent-hopkins-2



Wow, I dont think anyone would say no to a Kovalchuk calibre player on their team. How about I ask my Oiler fans friends what they think about Yak... oh wait a sec, they love that guy and his "celebrations". I think there are very few oilers fans that dislike the guy. But then again, he could bolt to the KHL, but then again so could Nichushkin.


Heck, I would find it hard to defend flames prospects especially considering they've not played an NHL game yet. I am optimistic that our picks will play well, but to bring down other teams and sometimes fabricate faults... not cool.

Ozzie not a Flames fan, definitely an Oiler imposter.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Gordies Elbow

Do you expect Calgary to draft #1 overall for the next couple of years? If so, where do you expect the players drafted to place compared to Ovechkin, Crosby, and Staal?

First, why the reliance on rookie scoring totals? That's one year in a player's career. What about the others? And why break it down by points and goals per game? Durability is just as important as ability to score. You're cherry picking and manipulating your data to pump the tires on your prospects. You would swear that Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov were all run away winners of the Calder trophy, yet not a single award between them.

Second, yes, I do believe Calgary will finish dead last the next two seasons. They have way too many unknowns and do not have much scoring talent that can be relied upon to project anything higher than dead last. There is a lot of potential, but nothing really proven to say they will finish any better than bottom of the barrel.

On projection of players, Sam Reinhart is a dynamic two way center that has the type of skill that could elevate him into the similar stratosphere as Kane, Nash, Staal and Tavares. He's not the guy I would want the Flames to pick though. I would prefer Ekblad, who projects as a top pair defenseman at the same level as Chara or Pronger. He fits the organizational need better than Reinhart, especially if the Flames project to be a bottom feeder in 2014-15 as well. McDavid projects as a generational talent, at the same level as Crosby. Any team that gets this kid will be set, and the Flames project to be so bad in that season that they are assured top spot. Only if their kids step up and play at levels not expected with the Flames not be dead last. If they do step it up and play at levels to get them out of a bottom pick that is a very good thing and likely means some of their kids are playing at the levels of those vaunted stars in Edmonton. I doubt that happens and the Flames will be in the hunt for third top pick in 2015-16, who is yet to be determined and still in midget hockey.

So if things go as projected, and the Flames will pick up Ekblad, McDavid and an undetermined player in 2015-16, I would say Tinordi's claim is completely false. Just Ekblad and McDavid would probably be enough to be considered superior to Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov. I believe the Flames to be much smarter than the Oilers and will not put all their eggs in the forward basket, instead looking at the lineup and consider addressing the needs of the team when it comes to BPA. Garnering a top end defenseman and a generational talent in the middle would set the Flames up considering the depth they have developed throughout the lineup.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by New Era

First, why the reliance on rookie scoring totals? That's one year in a player's career. What about the others? And why break it down by points and goals per game? Durability is just as important as ability to score. You're cherry picking and manipulating your data to pump the tires on your prospects. You would swear that Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov were all run away winners of the Calder trophy, yet not a single award between them.

I was thinking the same thing. On that basis I guess we could see where Sven slots in based on his emergency call up where he was almost a goal a game.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Gordies Elbow

McDavid could be a Colorado prospect. Or a Phoenix one. Or, for that matter, if, this thread is right, and Edmonton one.

You appear to be projecting based on what you believe the Flames will finish the next couple of years. First overall for the next two?

If so, you might want to take a look at the Oilers over the last couple of years:

Sorted by points per game (with defensemen and goalies removed, first year in the NHL):

2004 Alex Ovechkin
2005 Sidney Crosby
2007 Patrick Kane
2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2001 Ilya Kovalchuk
2009 John Tavares
2010 Taylor Hall
2012 Nail Yakupov
2008 Steven Stamkos
2002 Rick Nash
2006 Jordan Staal
2003 Eric Staal

and by goals per game:

2004 Alex Ovechkin
2005 Sidney Crosby
2001 Ilya Kovalchuk
2006 Jordan Staal
2012 Nail Yakupov
2010 Taylor Hall
2009 John Tavares
2008 Steven Stamkos
2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2007 Patrick Kane
2002 Rick Nash
2003 Eric Staal

Do you expect Calgary to draft #1 overall for the next couple of years? If so, where do you expect the players drafted to place compared to Ovechkin, Crosby, and Staal?

Part of the reason that the Oiler kids show up prominently on that list is that the Oilers gave them far more icetime, and more PP icetime, that most teams give their 18 year olds.

Great - pad the stats. Who cares about team management, or the shoulders of those kids.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I was thinking the same thing. On that basis I guess we could see where Sven slots in based on his emergency call up where he was almost a goal a game.

Sven's call up is equivalent to a 50 goal season. That would certainly vault him past each Oiler and put him in the top echelon of rookies to ever had played the game, only behind Selanne, Bossy, Ovechkin and Nieuwendyk. If you really want to see the top goal scoring rookies, and not fall for this pro-rated misinformation you can find the list here.

Top Scoring NHL Rookies

[demzor]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Part of the reason that the Oiler kids show up prominently on that list is that the Oilers gave them far more icetime, and more PP icetime, that most teams give their 18 year olds.

Great - pad the stats. Who cares about team management, or the shoulders of those kids.

Making #### up is awesome

Rookie ATIO
Alex Ovechkin 21:37
Sidney Crosby 20:08
Taylor Hall 18:37
Ilya Kovalchuk 18:32
Patrick Kane 18:22
John Tavares 18:00
Nugent-Hopkins 17:36
Eric Staal 16:40
Nail Yakupov 14:34
Steven Stamkos 14:56
Rick Nash 13:57


Take off your goggles. The Oilers drafted 1st overall.. and they got talented players.

[$ven27]

Originally Posted by New Era

Sven's call up is equivalent to a 50 goal season. That would certainly vault him past each Oiler and put him in the top echelon of rookies to ever had played the game, only behind Selanne, Bossy, Ovechkin and Nieuwendyk. If you really want to see the top goal scoring rookies, and not fall for this pro-rated misinformation you can find the list here.

Top Scoring NHL Rookies

Lol what. You cannot say 3 goals in 5 games is equivalent to 50, you were making some sense before that.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by $ven27

Lol what. You cannot say 3 goals in 5 games is equivalent to 50, you were making some sense before that.

That was mostly tongue in cheek, but it is the pro-rated number. It's simple math. I don't believe in pro-rated numbers, but using the Oilers fan's logic that is the equitable number applying the same methodology. That is why I think pro-rated numbers are not worthy of consideration. There are way too many variables that can affect a player during a season and you can only work with those numbers the player produces.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by demzor

Making #### up is awesome

Rookie ATIO
Alex Ovechkin 21:37
Sidney Crosby 20:08
Taylor Hall 18:37
Ilya Kovalchuk 18:32
Patrick Kane 18:22
John Tavares 18:00
Nugent-Hopkins 17:36
Eric Staal 16:40
Nail Yakupov 14:34
Steven Stamkos 14:56
Rick Nash 13:57


Take off your goggles. The Oilers drafted 1st overall.. and they got talented players.

Take off yours - your numbers support my claim. (though they are a simple, one-dimensional stat).

The only one there with lower TOI is Yakupov, which I am guessing is your point here, and Yak had 5 goals in his last two meaningless games, which drastically skews his stats.

However, trumpet on. The Oilers and their extremely talented draft picks are really showing it in the win column.

[demzor]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Take off yours - your numbers support my claim. (though they are a simple, one-dimensional stat).

The only one there with lower TOI is Yakupov, which I am guessing is your point here, and Yak had 5 goals in his last two meaningless games, which drastically skews his stats.

However, trumpet on. The Oilers and their extremely talented draft picks are really showing it in the win column.

You said the Oiler kids were only in the company of those players because they got ridiculous ice time. The numbers say they got comparable ice time to the rest of the players on the list.

Talented players.. like first overall picks.. receive ice time. Shocker.
Quite the Oilers conspiracy.


I won't even go into your "meaningless games" argument. Absolutely ridiculous.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

No, you said "the Oilers likely have the better top end prospect depth than the Flames will accumulate over the next three years." You've looked into your crystal ball and have already decided that it does not matter who the Flames draft in the next three years that the Oilers will have better top end prospect depth.

The Oilers drafted 1st overall three years in a row, and didn't go off the board with any of those picks (though I personally rated Galenchyuk higher than Yakupov). They beat incredible odds to not only be the worst team in the league three years in a row (do you know how hard that is?), but also win the lottery.

The Flames have enough talent that it's extremely unlikely they finish last overall three seasons in a row, let alone beat the odds and win all those lotteries. More likely is something like 2nd, 5th, 3rd. Unless you believe the upcoming three drafts are head and shoulders above the drafts where the Oilers picked 1st overall, it is highly unlikely the Flames draft three players as highly regarded as Hall, RNH, Yakupov in the next three years. Possible, but unlikely. That isn't looking into a crystal ball, it's simply looking at the draft odds objectively.

[Tinordi]

So if things go as projected, and the Flames will pick up Ekblad, McDavid and an undetermined player in 2015-16, I would say Tinordi's claim is completely false. Just Ekblad and McDavid would probably be enough to be considered superior to Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov. I believe the Flames to be much smarter than the Oilers and will not put all their eggs in the forward basket, instead looking at the lineup and consider addressing the needs of the team when it comes to BPA. Garnering a top end defenseman and a generational talent in the middle would set the Flames up considering the depth they have developed throughout the lineup.

My point is that I don't think the Flames will be bad enough to finish last, it's basically a roll of the dice either way, you really don't know how good and bad other teams will be. Couple that with the new draft lottery system and even if you finish last the odds are that you will NOT pick last. You only have a 25% chance of winning the lottery as the last place team.

Please get this through your head, my point is two-fold:

Odds are the Flames will not get one let alone two #1 overall draft picks over the next two years.

Odds are the Flames will be better than the Oilers over the past 3 years.

Which means that the Flames will need to have better depth, scouting and development to match the Oiler's high picks in the past three years.

Why is this basic idea failing you?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by demzor

You said the Oiler kids were only in the company of those players because they got ridiculous ice time. The numbers say they got comparable ice time to the rest of the players on the list.

Talented players.. like first overall picks.. receive ice time. Shocker.
Quite the Oilers conspiracy.


I won't even go into your "meaningless games" argument. Absolutely ridiculous.

Ovechkin, for example, got icetime because, as a 20 year old, he was already the Caps best winger and he deserved it.

Yakupov got icetime because the Oilers organization appears to be more concerned with showcasing their hope than anything else. He looked completely lost at times.

If you think their rookie seasons are in any way comparable, other than via the stat that you threw out there, then knock yourself out.

As for the meaningless games being ridiculous, we can agree to disagree.

[Enoch Root]

Going back to the discussion of drafting Yakupov or Murray, if I were the Oilers I would have done neither.

I would have traded the 1st overall to a team that wanted to get into the top 3 and were willing to pay for it. Then drafted one of the 3 defensemen that I liked: Reilly, Reinhart or Trouba (my choice).

Getting Trouba and another asset would have been a far better way to build the team than adding Yakupov, IMO.

[demzor]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ovechkin, for example, got icetime because, as a 20 year old, he was already the Caps best winger and he deserved it.

Yakupov got icetime because the Oilers organization appears to be more concerned with showcasing their hope than anything else. He looked completely lost at times.

If you think their rookie seasons are in any way comparable, other than via the stat that you threw out there, then knock yourself out.

As for the meaningless games being ridiculous, we can agree to disagree.

Yakupov.. who was at the bottom of the list for ice time and led the team in goals.. only got his ice time because the Oilers were showcasing "hope".. when in reality he should have been playing 4th line minutes or in the press box.

Ok Gotcha



I wonder why Yakupov got 18points in 22 games in the KHL. It couldn't be talent..

Nizhnekamsk must have been "selling hope" too.

[Enoch Root]

ah yes, let's resort to posting lame internet pics as an argument...

that's where I exit the conversation

[Tinordi]

WRT Yakupov or Murray, I think you really have to play the odds when you have the #1 pick. In many respects having first overall puts more constraints on you because the pressure to get it right is much higher.

Almost every team does play the odds and makes the 1st overall instead of trading it. Extremely rare to trade down.

Why? Because the first overall player is the closest thing to a sure thing you're going to get. If you trade down your handful of magic beans gets alot smaller. At the time Trouba was really raw, there were questions on whether he'd ever make the jump. They weren't loud or persistent questions but there was risk with Trouba, Dumba, hell even Murray. Yakupov had little risk, he had size, skating and the shot that would pretty much guarantee he'd be a player of some capacity.

If you really want to maximize value for your organization, you minimize your risk exposure on draft day by choosing the surest thing to pan out and then, if need be, you trade that player for sure things. The value Yakupov would bring back on draft day was yes, say Trouba and extra assets hell even a roster player. The value that Yakupov would bring back now is almost certainly higher. Because he's show that he can score in the NHL.

So I just fail to see how people are criticizing the Oilers for that pick. Smells of baseless rival talk not real analysis of the situation.

[Enoch Root]

So because some people have a different opinion of Yakupov than you do, it must be baseless, rivarly talk. Ok then.

You like Yakupov, that's fine. I am not a fan of his selfish style. Never was. I also don't think that he is what their lineup needed (already having Eberle and RNH). Argued before the draft that they should have traded the pick (not sure how that makes it a baseless, rivalry thing, but whatever).

I think draft picks get over-valued on draft day because of the hype and the potential of shiny new faces. IMO, that pick would have gotten the Oilers more then than Yakupov would get them now.

It is ok to disagree.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So because some people have a different opinion of Yakupov than you do, it must be baseless, rivarly talk. Ok then.

You like Yakupov, that's fine. I am not a fan of his selfish style. Never was. I also don't think that he is what their lineup needed (already having Eberle and RNH). Argued before the draft that they should have traded the pick (not sure how that makes it a baseless, rivalry thing, but whatever).

I think draft picks get over-valued on draft day because of the hype and the potential of shiny new faces. IMO, that pick would have gotten the Oilers more then than Yakupov would get them now.

It is ok to disagree.

It has nothing to do with liking him or not. I don't like him as a player, I think he's a punk. It's about the content of my previous post which you don't address, ie. minimizing risk.

And as I understand the reasons you don't like him have little to do with his production or stats and more on your own perception of his character. Well frankly you don't have a clue about his character besides making up stories because he's on a rival team. I'm just looking on his numbers, Jr. NHL-E, rookie season stats and concluding that the guy is most likely a front-line scorer. I know I know, you don't like stats as evidenced in a previous post and prefer your own biases, that's fine. But I'll stick with the numbers because I know my own biases fail me.

And I'm saying even if he wasn't what they needed he right play was to still draft him. You can get a heck of a lot more for him now than on draft day.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by The Voice of Reason

It would be shockingly forward thinking for any team, one year removed from the Stanley Cup finals, to have people within the organization stand back and be able to say "You know what, that cup run was a fluke. This team is deeply flawed and needs to be sold off now while values are still high"

The Flyers did that to a certain degree with their 2010 team. I would certainly give them credit for not just assuming their team was going to stay great, instead moving high priced guys out for very good young players.

I'm not saying they should have rebuilt, because I believe no team goes through a full scale rebuild until they have absolutely no choice. I am just saying the beginnings are not as similar as some like to think.