Flames Development Camp July 10th - 16th

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by New Era

The moral of your post is keep the razor blades away from you. There's being pessimistic, then there is what you just posted. Wow, reading that made me want to go take up watching Brazilian soccer. At least watching there the be-headings and quarterings take place on the pitch.

You could look at things completely differently, using the projections of players made by the experts prior to the recent draft, and come up with a vastly different take. For example, Monahan was almost unanimously identified as a future top line center, in the mold of Toews or Staal. Very few had him identified as a number two center, and those that did identified him as an elite second line center. That was considered his downside. I'm not saying I personally buy that, but that was the projections by the vast majority of the hockey community. So using that as a baseline and a comparison for certain players you could very easily make the follow observations using your schema.

Gaudreau---Monahan, Jankowski---NONE
Baertschi, Agostino ---Backlund, Granlund, Knight ---Poirier
Klimchuk---Reinhart, Horak, Arnold---Galiardi
Elson---Reinhart, Bouma---Harrison

Jankowski was every bit as good as Monahan in this camp and they are less than two months apart in age. If Monahan is that good, so is Jankowski. They both showed very well in a very competitive camp that you shouldn't be leaning toward their downside but instead leaning toward them achieving their upside. In fact, the vast majority of players exceeded expectations and should have you leaning towards them over-achieving. The only players that were possibly a little disappointing to me were Klimchuk and Poirier, but that can be expected when they are arriving at their first pro-camp. Wait and see what they do in the fall before writing them off as under-achievers or busts.

I'm not sure if your projections are an attempt to reign in your own expectations or if you are purposely under-estimating the talent of some of these kids so your projections will appear to be more accurate when they achieve greater than you have suggested, but your projections are, in a word, depressing. It seems you're one of those guys who believes the only way to find true top line talent is to pull an Oiler and draft first overall for half a decade.

I believe there is talent through out the draft a you can pull a Detroit and find first liners in the 6th and 7th rounds if you do your homework and take some risks. I believe Jankowski has shown he has top line talent. I believe Gaudreau is an elite prospect, regardless of his size. I believe that if Harrison displays any scoring touch he will zoom up our depth chart and may be a player talked about as the major steal of this past draft for years to come. So far the performances at development camp were extremely encouraging and should have people excited about the future. Crapping all over our prospects and under-rating their performance is not providing balance, it's more like hedging a bet. We're not being Oiler fans who were blowing up marginal players who never performed above the level expected of them. I think Flames fans, and management, went into this camp with very guarded expectations and were blown away when a number of players exceeded those expectations by a huge margin. Big difference.

The bold is exactly the problem. Projecting Monahan and Jankowski to be very good 2-line C on a contending team isn't "crapping all over our prospects". The fact that you think it is shows exactly how badly some fans are overestimating the talent on the roster.

I see depth chart after depth chart consisting of nothing but prospects with an expectation that will make up a successful team in a season or two.

There is no acknowledgment that most prospects don't make the show full time. There is no acknowledgement that our two best prospects were drafted in 2008 and 2011 and they are still a ways a way from reaching their potential. There is no acknowledgement that the diamonds in the rough (like Gaudreau) usually take years to make the NHL.

I am not being pessimistic. You just want to think that I am.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I would split the difference between Kehatch's assessment and New Era's assessment.

I haven't seen any of these guys outside of Horak and Baertschi play in the NHL. That will be the true test. That being said, both Horak and Baertschi didn't dominate during the prospect camp, so that should speak to the relative talent of some of these younger guys. If they can keep up with NHL ready players they should have a good shot at reaching their potential.

Time will tell, but I believe there is a good reason to be happy with the core of prospects we have. I think we may have to draft an elite defenseman or two, and likely at least 1 top line right winger...maybe a top line center depending on how Monahan and Jankowski develop. However, the foundation for a winning team is now in place and there may only be a few pieces to add through free agency in 2 years time.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Jankowski was nowhere near as good as Monahan. Not even close. But this is prospect camp. The purpose is to expose these kids to what the pro club is all about and for a glimpse of what they bring. Sam Gagner, referred to above, had 118pts on 53 games as a 17 year old and was expected to be a first line player.

I think they were actually pretty close.

Only difference was in the scrimmages Monahan had Gaudreau playing on his wing and their chemistry made a huge difference.

Would have been nice to have Baertschi and Jankowski on the same line for team black to see how they played with one another.

[Knalus]

It's always easy to be happy about your team in summer. Everything always looks better in summer.

[MissTeeks]

Originally Posted by Knalus

It's always easy to be happy about your team in summer. Everything always looks better in summer.

Usually. So let people be overly optimistic about the prospects in the summer, cause God knows there won't be much to be excited about during the regular season.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Wow. His post wasn't pessimistic at all.

Wasn't pessimistic at all? Didn't have a single player outside of Gaudreau as having top line talent, less than a month after Monahan was drafted as was talked about as being a top line center for the past six or eight months! That's not pessimistic?

This was a prospect camp. It was a few drills and two scrimmages. It doesn't change goalposts.

It was a measure. There were plenty of players at this camp that had professional experience or were older prospects. This is a great measuring stick for the prospects and the first of many to come. The next will be rookie camp, the rookie tournament and then main camp. But this first one was a great measurement. The guys that had NHL experience did not dominate and did not stand out. That is a great testament to players the team is collecting.

Experts project to ten players top be great all the time, but the chances if them reaching that potential isn't anywhere near 100%. Sounds like you are getting way ahead of yourself.

So let's just cut to the chase, call all of these guys busts, because based on statistics the vast majority of them will, trade them all, stop going to the draft and attempting to develop players, and live off the castoffs from other teams. I mean, this is all a losing proposition, especially to the basement bloggers (trademark owned by Jay Feaster).

Jankowski was nowhere near as good as Monahan. Not even close.

There are more than enough comments from those that attended camp, and those from the team, to say they were both very close. The difference the basement bloggers seem to emphasize is that Monahan had an advantage in the scrimmages. He should have. He was playing with Gaudreau, so he had an unfair advantage. Comments seemed to indicate that Monahan and Jankowski were very similar in abilities and performance throughout much of camp. That bodes well for Jankowski and the Flames.

But this is prospect camp. The purpose is to expose these kids to what the pro club is all about and for a glimpse of what they bring. Sam Gagner, referred to above, had 118pts on 53 games as a 17 year old and was expected to be a first line player.

Who expected that? I don't recall that when he was drafted nor as he progressed through his development. Gagner had second line talent and makeup, and it appears he's achieving that promise.

You claim we aren't Oiler fans who blow up marginal prospects who haven't shown anything, then talk about how Harrison will be one of the major steals of the draft after he plays 2 intra squad scrimmages with non pro players????

You'll notice I said if he discovered a scoring touch. The kid has all the tools and was a total standout in camp. He has a long road ahead of him, but based on this early showing it is crazy that he was drafted so late. Another instance of a kid playing in a poorly scouted league? Whatever the cause the fact is that he performed well beyond expectations and had the entire camp buzzing. That is what you want out of your prospects. Over achievement. That isn't over-rating, that is a straight observation from the management and scouting staff of the hockey club.

[Heavy Jack]

lol

"I thought i did really well"

KH does too

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by New Era

Wasn't pessimistic at all? Didn't have a single player outside of Gaudreau as having top line talent, less than a month after Monahan was drafted as was talked about as being a top line center for the past six or eight months! That's not pessimistic?

Did you read the blog or just the post? The only way to read it as overly negative is if you take the 'he is absolutely a top line C guaranteed' type of stance.

You are accusing me of being off the deep end on one end of the spectrum. In reality I am very encouraged about what I have seen in our prospect pool and am very optimistic about our chances of turning things around in the future.

The fact that you are reading the slightest bit of restraint as me 'crapping on our prospects' and of me being super pessimistic is just a sign of how desperate you are.

Originally Posted by New Era

So let's just cut to the chase, call all of these guys busts, because based on statistics the vast majority of them will, trade them all, stop going to the draft and attempting to develop players, and live off the castoffs from other teams. I mean, this is all a losing proposition, especially to the basement bloggers (trademark owned by Jay Feaster).

Once again NOBODY IS SAYING THAT. You are going WAY OVERBOARD.

OMG I THINK HE SHOULD BE PROJECTED AS A 1-LINE PROSPECT BUT HE ONLY PROJECTED HIM AS A 2-LINE PROSPECT. WAAAAAAAAAH HE HATES OUR PROSPECTS AND BLOGS IN HIS UNDERWEAR!!!!!!!!!!

Chill dude.

BTW, Feaster is a GM of a major NHL franchise. He gets a little slack at making fun of bloggers. You on the other hand are having a debate on a hockey message board in July. Perhaps in your basement in a 2-day old set of tighty whiteys. Who knows? Point being I don't think you are in a position to make generic comments on bloggers.

[kehatch]

For the record I think Monahan projects into a player like Jordan Staal. A really good 50 point selke level C that can probably but up 65 points if given the right sort of minutes.

I have him rated as one of our three AAA prospects (check the link below) and the Flames second best prospect behind Baertschi.

I am not really sure how that is a negative projection.

I also think it is possible he matures into a really good 1C. Just like I think it is possible he doesn't realize his potential as being a Jordan Staal level player. But I think the cautious but realistic projection for him right now is to be a 2C. Fans have the summer time post draft tendency to project every prospect as if they reach the ceiling of their range.

In terms of projecting the needs of the team going forward I don't think you can say 'we have our 1C issue licked because Jankowski and Monahan are in the system'.

Regardless, the purpose of the blog and the post wasn't to debate the 1C position or Monahan. It was simply to point out that although we have made some very strong improvements to the prospect pool there are still gaps. At least in terms of supporting a full scale rebuild. And this thing will take time. So enjoy the prospects and the development and the building of a new foundation. But don't expect the Flames to make a major playoff push a season from now with a top 6 of this years draft picks.

[Lanny_McDonald]

^^^ wow, that basement blogger comment really resonated with you. Didn't mean anything by it, but it sure seemed to hit home.

Good follow up post. I do have to wonder about your thinking though. You say a 65 point center, but say a number two. Doesn't add up. Also, no kidding about the holes, but we're one draft into the official rebuild. Yeah, this is going to take some time.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by kehatch

The Flames are going to have to hope some players exceed projections, that they get more support in the draft (preferably in the form of top 3 picks), that they have enough prospects gain value that they can be in the conversation next time an elite player becomes available, and that they can fill in the gaps via trade and free agency.

How is this preferable? If you're talking about having hope that players exceed their projections, wouldn't the preferable scenario be that some of our late round picks end up being gems? Rather than hoping the team sucks and ends up with top picks?

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by New Era

^^^ wow, that basement blogger comment really resonated with you. Didn't mean anything by it, but it sure seemed to hit home.

Considering I am married with a family and write an average of a blog a year not really. I just think it is funny when message board posters insult bloggers. But way to deflect.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by MattyC

How is this preferable? If you're talking about having hope that players exceed their projections, wouldn't the preferable scenario be that some of our late round picks end up being gems? Rather than hoping the team sucks and ends up with top picks?

Sure I hope that. I also hope I win the lottery. But I still plan on going to work on Monday.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Sure I hope that. I also hope I win the lottery. But I still plan on going to work on Monday.

So what would you prefer? To win the lottery, or go to work?

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by New Era

Wasn't pessimistic at all? Didn't have a single player outside of Gaudreau as having top line talent, less than a month after Monahan was drafted as was talked about as being a top line center for the past six or eight months! That's not pessimistic?

This is all very rich coming from New Era, who has previously compared Sean Monahan to busts & disappointing players like:

-Rob Niedermayer: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...84#post4231384

-Greg Nemisz: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...126400&page=96

-Kyle Turris: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...11#post4206011

The guy rags on people for months for being overly optimistic but then someone posts an opinion which tempers expectations for our prospects & he rags on them as well. His whole perspective on Monahan is baffling to say the least; vehemently criticising him on here for months but now causing a full-on argument because someone hasn't recognised him as a blue chip prospect! Hypocrisy much??!

New Era: Policing CP & Basement Bloggers' expectations since 2013.

[Gary83]

This thread really sucks now.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by MattyC

How is this preferable? If you're talking about having hope that players exceed their projections, wouldn't the preferable scenario be that some of our late round picks end up being gems? Rather than hoping the team sucks and ends up with top picks?

If being a sports fan for the last 30 years has taught me anything it's that you can't bank on "can't-miss" prospects to have long and successful careers in any top league of any sport. You can hope that they pan out, but you cannot 100% count on them to. This applies exponentially more to late-round picks. We certainly can't expect a scenario where, for example, 7th-round pick Tim Harrison pots 30 goals in a season, so there's no need to prepare for a scenario where that happens. Sure, it's a 'preferable scenario', but it's unlikely to happen. May as well focus on improving our depth in that position rather than assuming or planning for long-shot prospects to fill major organisational needs.

I personally think Monahan & Jankowski have first line C potential & I imagine the vast majority on here would agree. I wouldn't bet my life on either of them being legitimate 1st-liners on a good team, but I also wouldn't rule out both of them panning out & forming a lethal 1-2 punch down the middle as we haven't seen since Nieuwy/Gilmour. Having them in the stable of prospects is amazing & I am very excited to watch them develop, but I hope management continues to address that organisational need in upcoming drafts instead of assuming that we're all sorted for the foreseeable.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Well, people do have to temper their expectations somewhat - like Kehatch said, not everyone is going to blossom into what their projections are going to be, but not everyone is going to fail either. Some will even surpass projections, though those will be few of course.

Right now, you have to see how players are developing and taking into account things other than pure stats as well.

For instance - as per Kehatch's post - Oiler fans were penciling Gagner into their 1st line C. Hindsight is of course 20/20, BUT - Gagner is also a small player. Small players will often better transition into wingers than centers. So taking into account Monahan and Jankowski - they both have 'elite' hands and vision, they both have solid leadership traits, they both have good skating abilities, they both have high hockey IQ, they both have great work ethics - and just as importantly as those - they both have above-average size.

I think Monahan is a bit ahead at this point, with Jankowski still needing to figure out how to play with a bit more of an edge to his game - more competitive and assertive out there.

Now let's look at the progression...

Jankowski was a bit of a 'gamble' or reach in many posters' eyes because of where he was drafted from, and the question marks on how it would translate into the NHL one day. Well, he is progressing positively.

Gaudreau is the very best example for this. When he was drafted, many posters (myself included) thought it was almost a 'waste' of a pick. An extreme long-shot. However, he is progressing to the point where it is now practically a given he will play in the NHL (but how well he does and how long he sticks is the question).

Flames fans have also had reason to be a bit more optimistic about the prospects because more are seemingly making the big show now. Brodie was a guy that was under the radar, and he now has solidified his top 4 position - with maybe having top 2 potential. Reinhart made the big show, and though he was a bit weak still (he is still young and putting on some weight), he still looked pretty decent. Baertschi struggled a bit with injuries, but he had a very, very strong finish to the season.

I don't think it is necessarily 'wrong' to start penciling in prospects into top 6 roles - or even top line roles. Let's just not call them busts when they don't. Flames have another draft upcoming in which they will most likely pick fairly high, and possibly another draft after that one where they may pick at least close (if not in) the lottery realm. Those are still going to be additions to the top 6, and existing prospects that don't pan out will be pushed down or traded away (or just fizzle out and be let go).

I, for one, choose to be optimistic about the prospects going forward, and at this point see some legitimate first line talent developing. It isn't a guarantee, and I will not go back and say: "Stupid pick" or "Bust!!". I will just know that until they prove it in the NHL, they are unproven. That is all. I just enjoy being super excited about how these prospects develop and then contribute to the success of the Flames (and how fun it will be to watch them!).

To each their own however. I can understand posters being a little bit pessimistic, neutral, or optimistic. Makes for some good conversation anyways.

[FlameZilla]

Each of these players has a wide spectrum of potential... Rather than pigeon-hole them into a specific role I would break each of them down into a few possible projections, with vaguely realistic odds on each. For example, I'd love to see a blogger/scout/expert/CP-poster (that has actually watched these prospects) do a breakdown of our prospects somewhat like this:

Prospect:John Gaudreau
Ceiling potential: All-star Winger — 20%
Likely projection: Top 6 scoring Winger — 60%
Basement projection: Minor league journeyman — 15%
Glass-empty projection: Complete bust (due to injury, lifestyle etc) — 5%

[Alberta_Beef]

I'm not even sure why we are discussing a blog from the Flames official site. I tried reading things there and it was the most ridiculous place I ever visited, they make HFboards looks like a group of rocket scientists. Even worse is the people that are "running" things there are the biggest idiots and/or drama queens there.