Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[Commandant]

Eric Comrie, the goalie from the Tri-City Americans, is the number 35 prospect on my board.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2013/05/...er-profile-35/

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Dagger

Feaster has a history of selecting big players that are high risk/high reward. Aside from Sven every other top 30 pick of his falls under this category.

... and by "asides from Sven every other..." you mean basically just Jankowski. C'mon wait for a sample size larger then two before trying to infer a pattern.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Not sure dont know either well enough but at some point late in the first grabbing the best tender isn't a bad idea

I disagree, I mean I wouldn't rage about it if it happened but it's a poor allocation of a draft resource that high. Particularily since I think the Flames actually have strong organizational depth at goalie what with Ramo, Broisset, Gillies, and Ortio excelling in their respective leagues. The Flames needs are many so it makes little sense to me for them to burn an asset on the one part of the team where I think the Flames are actually a little flush.

The conspiracy theorist part of my brain thinks that they might use the Pens pick to draft Fucale if he's still available because that will forever be the guy we got for Iginla and they might want, for the purposes of PR, to have the ability to say "we got the highest ranked X for Iginla"... and at 25-30 they can't say that with respect to d-men or forwards but they might for a goalie.

Personally, if the Flames are going to draft a goalie I think they ought to wait until the 4th or later round... I mean Tristan Jarry is projected to go around there and he's as good as anyone statistically speaking.

[the-rasta-masta]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I disagree, I mean I wouldn't rage about it if it happened but it's a poor allocation of a draft resource that high. Particularily since I think the Flames actually have strong organizational depth at goalie what with Ramo, Broisset, Gillies, and Ortio excelling in their respective leagues. The Flames needs are many so it makes little sense to me for them to burn an asset on the one part of the team where I think the Flames are actually a little flush.

The conspiracy theorist part of my brain thinks that they might use the Pens pick to draft Fucale if he's still available because that will forever be the guy we got for Iginla and they might want, for the purposes of PR, to have the ability to say "we got the highest ranked X for Iginla"... and at 25-30 they can't say that with respect to d-men or forwards but they might for a goalie.

Personally, if the Flames are going to draft a goalie I think they ought to wait until the 4th or later round... I mean Tristan Jarry is projected to go around there and he's as good as anyone statistically speaking.

I agree. However if the Flames have evaluated a goaltender that they consider elite, you take him. None of the Flames goalies are in that category.

[PlayfulGenius]

It looks to me they're right about as often as they are with other players... Late in the 1st, at least.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I also have the feeling that Nichushkin becomes a center in the NHL.

What makes you think that?

I've only seen a game or two of his but from that and the highlights it seems like he loves driving down the wing with speed. Didn't see a ton of playmaking from him.

He looks like a prototypical winger and not at all like a centre.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

I agree. However if the Flames have evaluated a goaltender that they consider elite, you take him.

Goalies are such a crapshoot that I don't think there's an accurate enough evaluation method that you can use to project "elite". For giggles I went to NHL.com and looked at starting goalies and took a look at the top 15 by games played: There were as many goales from that group that were undrafted as there were guys drafted in round 1. I'm fine with drafting goalies... I'd just rather the dart they throw at the board not be a 1st (or second) round dart.

[JiriHrdina]

To be Devil’s advocate – here’s why I would argue picking the best goalie late in the first is good value.

Basically the idea is to take advantage of trends with drafting. So if teams are shying away from Russians and Goalies – allowing them to drop below where they would have been drafted say a decade ago – you end up getting a better asset from that draft position.

The Flames need to take some risks. They are one of the most asset-weak organizations in the league if you look across the entire system.

They need to be bold.
If they think the Russian is a franchise player – take him at 6.
If they think Fucale is a franchise goalie – take him later in the 1st.

Being conservative isn’t going to help this organization.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

They need to be bold.
If they think the Russian is a franchise player – take him at 6.
If they think Fucale is a franchise goalie – take him later in the 1st.

Being conservative isn’t going to help this organization.

I agree in principle (that being conservative isn’t going to help) but there's a difference between being bold and mismanaging an asset. With respect to drafting goalies I think using a first would be mismanagement of an asset.

On the surface it looks like you're just as likely to find a starting goalie quality tender in the third or later round as you are to find same in the first or second... so why burn the first round pick?

[DionTheDman]

I don't know the specific statistics, but franchise goalies are more commonly found in later rounds, are they not?

The most recent Vezina winners are:
Henrik Lundqvist - 205th overall
Tim Thomas - 217th overall
Ryan Miller - 138th overall
Martin Brodeur - 20th overall
Miikka Kiprusoff - 116th overall
Jose Theodore - 44th overall
Dominik Hasek - 199th overall

Out of those, only one was from the first round.

[Parallex]

Edit: Missed Brodeur in there

Yup just Brodeur and after him you have to back to Fuhr.

[Robbob]

Another possible reason is that young goalies also tend to be good assets if they pan out or have a perceived higher ceiling. Look at the returns or potential returns for goalies under 25 have received lately (Lindback, Bishop, Valrlamov, Bobrosky, rumored return for Bernier).

IF you take a goalie this year, in 3 years you will have potentially Fucale, Brossiot, Gilles and Ortio in the system. For each additional goalie that pans out is an asset that can be traded. It also helps mitigate the risk of someone not panning out or getting hurt.

[Dienasty]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Edit: Missed Brodeur in there

Yup just Brodeur and after him you have to back to Fuhr.

Carey Price/Mark Andre Fleury/Roberto Luongo/Cam Ward were all first round picks... and are the favorites for team Canada, Mike Smith the wild card was taken in the 5th round.

However, Irving, Dipietro, Krahn, Dubnyk, Mccollum were all first rounders and other then Dubnyk all are epic busts.

I am happy with the current stables of Gillies, Broissot, Ortio, Berra, Ramo that I don't think the Flames need to look at another tender until next season or the following.

Personally I am extremely high on Gillies.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by DionTheDman

I don't know the specific statistics, but franchise goalies are more commonly found in later rounds, are they not?

The most recent Vezina winners are:
Henrik Lundqvist - 205th overall
Tim Thomas - 217th overall
Ryan Miller - 138th overall
Martin Brodeur - 20th overall
Miikka Kiprusoff - 116th overall
Jose Theodore - 44th overall
Dominik Hasek - 199th overall

Out of those, only one was from the first round.

At the same time goalies like Rask, Price, Ward, Varlamov, Lehtonnen, Markstrom, Brodeur, Fleury, Luongo, and Schneider were first round picks and are bonafide number 1s for their team. Jonathan Bernier is one you may be able to add to the list later. DiPietro was for all intensive purposes a bust, but he still posted a few good years(behind an awful Islanders defence) before being completely derailed by injuries...and soured by the large contract.

In the 2nd round you have guys like Jake Allen(35), Pavelec(41), Crawford(52), Neuvirth(34) who are either solid starters or have good trade value.

Guys like Vasilevsky, Campbell, Subban, and Gibson are projected as their respective teams' "next" goalie and are doing well developmentally. All except Gibson, who went 39th, were first round picks.

Obviously there are numerous cases of goalies busting when being selected that early, but there are 10 bonafide NHL starters taken in the first(with Bernier potentially making that 11), and you have 2 more RIGHT NOW if you include the 2nd...with Jake Allen possibly being another in the near future. Neuvirth is a little tougher to gauge so I'll omit him. That's 12-14 goalies taken with picks 52 and above who are legitimate NHL starters. I'd say it's worth "wasting" a pick if there's a starter to be found....almost half the league unearthed a goalie this way.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Another possible reason is that young goalies also tend to be good assets if they pan out or have a perceived higher ceiling. Look at the returns or potential returns for goalies under 25 have received lately (Lindback, Bishop, Varlamov, Bobrosky, rumored return for Bernier).

Lindback: 7th Round
Bishop: 3rd Round
Varlamov: 1st Round
Bobrosky: Undrafted
Bernier: 1st Round

Still not seeing any reason to burn a first on a goalie. Sure Bernier & Varlamov were firsties but Lindback & Bobrosky were 7th or lower. Goalie in the 1st round = Bad Bet. Or at the very least a marginal bet with less upside considering that goalies developmental paths will likely eat up their ELC's leaving you with less value and team leverage when they actually ripen.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by _Q_

I actually don't mind taking Nichushkin at all if the Flames do their due diligence. Sounds to me like the interview is the most important part of the selection process. If they feel that after the interview he could be the second coming of Pavel Bure, Pavel Datsyuk or even Alexander Ovechkin AND he's willing to play for the Flames then I would be all over it.

This

i think in the interview process if the player really does have an internal list (which i don't believe he does, i think those comments were taken out of context) of teams he's willing to play for, and the flames aren't on that list. Nichuskin has absolutely no reason to lie about being willing to play for us. what's the upside for him? get drafted to a team you're unwilling to play for?

If the flames select nichuskin it means the interview went well, he wants to play in the nhl, and he wants to play for the flames. If that's the case then the russian factor means zero. He'll develop in the KHL for a couple years and hopefully come over with confidence and the skill set as advertised.

[You Need a Thneed]

I don't think I've seen it mentioned here - considering the the Flames will not be compliance buying out any players, nor will be worried about spending too much money the next season or two, might the Flames want to trade a trade such as this:

To Calgary:
Player that other team wants to buy out, but can't due to wanting to buy out other players.
2nd Round Pick

To Other team:
Garbage prospect that Calgary has no plans for

I'd love to see it happen.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Lindback: 7th Round
Bishop: 3rd Round
Varlamov: 1st Round
Bobrosky: Undrafted
Bernier: 1st Round

Still not seeing any reason to burn a first on a goalie. Sure Bernier & Varlamov were firsties but Lindback & Bobrosky were 7th or lower. Goalie in the 1st round = Bad Bet. Or at the very least a marginal bet with less upside considering that goalies developmental paths will likely eat up their ELC's leaving you with less value and team leverage when they actually ripen.

But if you think Fucale can be a number one goalie and it pans out then it lets you get an asset for the following tenders if any pan out as NHL quality goaltenders.:

Brossoit: 5th round
Gilles: 3rd
Ortio: 6th

Turning just one of the above into a package recently received would be a huge win for the Flames. Or if one of them steps up to be an elite goalie then you have a situation similar to the Kings where their late pick is their franchise goalie and their 1st round goalie will be traded for significant assets.

[united]

Another consideration you have to take is when the player becomes a UFA - at 27 years old or 7 seasons. There isn't much point, aside from trade value of his potential, in drafting someone in the first round who may not start for you for a decade.

Here is a quick list of goalies who played in 120 games (arbitrary - two seasons as starter?) between the ages of 18 and 26, between 2000-2001 and this current season.
http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...ed#stats::none


15 of the 32 were drafted in the first round (between 1994 and 2006). In that same period, 36 goalies were taken in the first round. So 15/36 first round picks ended up playing in 120 games before becoming a UFA.

Note that James Reimer needs to play 16 games next season to qualify for 120 before 27. Assuming he does, that makes 33 goalies, and he isn't a first-round pick.

I'm sure there are some flaws in this study, but it was the quickest way I could think of.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Another possible reason is that young goalies also tend to be good assets if they pan out or have a perceived higher ceiling. Look at the returns or potential returns for goalies under 25 have received lately (Lindback, Bishop, Valrlamov, Bobrosky, rumored return for Bernier).

IF you take a goalie this year, in 3 years you will have potentially Fucale, Brossiot, Gilles and Ortio in the system. For each additional goalie that pans out is an asset that can be traded. It also helps mitigate the risk of someone not panning out or getting hurt.

This is not a reason to take a goalie.

Any draft pick that continues to show promise / develops is an asset that can be traded.

The only issue with respect to drafting goalies in the first round is: are they more likely / as likely / or less likely to become an NHLer than non-goalie first rounders are?

I don't have any stats for that, but my guess is that they are less likely.

Actually, there is a second issue as well: how do goalies compare with respect to expected games played by the age of 27? Goalies typically take longer to develop. That being the case, there are less games available before UFA age.

As a result, goalies are a less efficient pick, and that is a strike against taking them in the first round (there are always individual exceptions of course)