While an election campaign (not to mention the next 30 months before an election) is likely to change the dynamics significantly, at the moment it almost looks like this could become an even three-way race, and I would think almost certainly a minority government.
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I read his post, thanks. I just find it laughable. I was on record somewhere here saying I wasn't particularly fond of Trudeau, but between the over the top bashing here and front pages like we see today on the Sun, my affection is growing.
Dude, what are you talking about. The Sun is a newspaper! They're only allowed to show bias in the Opinion section.
Anything else you're seeing is just your own personal bias against the paper!
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Settle down there, Temple Grandin.
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While an election campaign (not to mention the next 30 months before an election) is likely to change the dynamics significantly, at the moment it almost looks like this could become an even three-way race, and I would think almost certainly a minority government.
I actually disagree.
The NDP are at a considerable disadvantage because they lack a core base of support. The trend maps show that the Conservatives have their strong base in the Prairies and the Liberals their strong base in the Atlantic, but the NDP has nothing. They are, at best, in a dead heat in their highest support areas (BC, Quebec), and stagnant or losing ground most everywhere else.
I think that as long as the NDP is polling close to the other two, it actually increases the odds of another Conservative majority, since Mulcair's looney toons show wont be pulling support from the right. However, if they fail, that opens the door to a Liberal majority for the same reason - lost NDP support won't be going to the Conservatives. I think the most interesting aspect of the next two and a half years will be seeing how well Trudeau protects his left flank. That is the battleground that will determine who the Prime Minister is after the next election.
...I think the most interesting aspect of the next two and a half years will be seeing how well Trudeau protects his left flank. That is the battleground that will determine who the Prime Minister is after the next election.
I agree - but I think for him to win he cant protect it so much that he loses the "Martin" Liberals. Its the centre party tightrope and why politics is much more interesting up here - even if we dont have the greatest coverage.
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Rudy was the only hope in 08
2011 Election: Cons 40% - Nanos 38% Ekos 34%
Apparently the strip was at a charity event for the Canadian Liver Foundation, which was attended by Harper's wife the year prior when Justin stripped again to raise money. As for the 'Quebec is better' comment... he was in his late 20s, Harper was a sitting Prime Minister when he declared Calgary the greatest city in Canada. Just because it is true doesn't make it better.
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While an election campaign (not to mention the next 30 months before an election) is likely to change the dynamics significantly, at the moment it almost looks like this could become an even three-way race, and I would think almost certainly a minority government.
I know it's a long ways away, but I honestly can't see any way where the conservatives retain a majority in 2015.
There are just too many factors against them coming up. As much as people either love/hate Trudeau, he is an amazing personality in comparison to grumpy Muclair and robotic Harper. And Canadians, like many other voters, will lean towards personality over substance, especially when a sitting government starts to look stale. Factor in that wildcard and also the fact that the Conservatives will have been in power for close to ten years, the ebb and flow of federal politics says that too many issues will start to catch-up to them.
Honestly, all I care about now is that this will re-energize my interest in Canadian Politics over the next couple of year and there promises to be some excellent brawls over the next couple of years, lots of hurt feelings, angry reporaches and swearing.
Bring it on.
Hopefully this race also solves a lot of the voter apathy that we've seen over the last few elections, I want people to vote.
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Trudeau may very well use the next couple of years to prepare for a legitimate shot at a minority. The conservatives had a winning strategy in establishing beachheads in suburban ontario and spreading from there, so I am curious if the Liberals will respond by continuing to spending more to get a beachhead in Calgary centre, and the few left leaning Edmonton ridings. If new brunswick going blue was just a fluke, the West/Ontario-Immigrant conservative coalition could prove to be insufficient. Finally, a more exciting reason to watch question period!
Says the hypocrite whose only contributions to the Redford thread is attacking the opposition.
I sir, am but a humble independent user on an internet forum, not a national political party of whom I would expect a modicum of decorum.
Call me old fashioned, but I remember when parties would release media touting the strength of their platforms and positions, rather than lambasting the weaknesses of their opponents.
Are voters actually influenced by these attack ads? Makes you wonder. So now not only do we get the Economic "Action" plan ads shoved down our throats, but now we have to put up with Conservative attack ads laced with misinformation and lack of context. I would never support Trudeau but find it hilarious that the ads are already out not even 24 hours later.
That one and the one from 1990 mocking Chretien's speech are the gold medal winners for poorly considered attack ads.
Not an ad per se, but the "best" political attack I can recall is when an overly-enthusiastic campaign staffer for Ontario PC leader Ernie Eves described Dalton McGuinty as an "evil reptilian kitten-eater from another planet" in a press release. Yes, that really happened.
Kim Campbell's spot attacking Chrétien's face was by far the low point in Canadian attack ads, though. Also in very poor taste was a Harper campaign press release from either 2004 or 2006 that accused Paul Martin of supporting child pornography.
Trudeau may very well use the next couple of years to prepare for a legitimate shot at a minority. The conservatives had a winning strategy in establishing beachheads in suburban ontario and spreading from there, so I am curious if the Liberals will respond by continuing to spending more to get a beachhead in Calgary centre, and the few left leaning Edmonton ridings. If new brunswick going blue was just a fluke, the West/Ontario-Immigrant conservative coalition could prove to be insufficient. Finally, a more exciting reason to watch question period!
It'll be very interesting to see what their strategy is. I think their best bet is just to re-establish themselves as the central party first, regardless of whether that gets them into power or not. Dion's idea of trying to outflank the NDP on the left was disasterous for the party, because it effectively ceded the political center to the Conservatives. As bad as Ignatieff was as a candidate, I think Dion deserves more blame for the party's current predicament because he basically abandoned the position of strength that the party had occupied for years.
In terms of immediate dividends, Trudeau's best strategy might be to go after Quebec and the center-left spectrum, but all that does is hurt the NDP, further splits the left vote, and makes a Conservative majority an even greater certainty. But if he targets the political center and soft Conservative support, then he can set up a situation where the liberals hold considerable sway in the House in a minority situation, regardless of whether they're first, second or third in terms of seats. Identifying where that soft Conservative support is, and how to turn it to soft Liberal support is will be extremely difficult.
