Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[868904]

Originally Posted by robaur

Would ppl be angry if the Flames traded next years potential top 5 pick + STL 1st this year + roster player for ability to draft both Mackinnon and Drouin?

Nevermind reuniting Mackinnon and Drouin, I'd probably do it just to get a crack at Monahan or Lindholm in the 6 to 8 range.

Say our potential top 5 next year + something of value (say a Tanguay, Cammy, Stempniak, or a B type prospect like Granlund).

I'm not hearing the same buzz about next year's draft as this years and if you can leave the draft with a Mackinnon/Drouin AND a Monahan/Lindholm, you've done a really good job.

[868904]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Based on the odds, there is bust (or disappointment) potential in most drafts for a top 5 pick. It's never a sure thing like you said.

Hopefully we end up with the Jaromir Jagr of this draft instead of the Owen Nolan, Peter Nedved, Keith Primeau, or Mike Ricci.

Although the other 4 were pretty good players.

Wow, looking back at the draft, the Flames really pooped the bed. Traded up to get Trevor Kidd instead of Martin Brodeur and they had 3 picks in the second round (only 21 teams) who ended up playing a combined 23 games in the NHL.

[Tinordi]

Petr Nedved laughed when Jagr was taken after him and said "that guy is alot better than me."

[Bonded]

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1298875

Along the lines of the current discussion. Interesting breakdown from this guy.

top 5: 84% 1st over all 90% #2: 100%, #3: 80%, #4: 70%, #5: 80%. - Obviously the most successful block of 5. Nothing outlandish here. Your top 3 picks are pretty much the only spots your gauraunteed a top 6 player.

6-10: 42% 6: 60%, 7: 50%, 8: 30%, 9: 40%, 10: 30% -As found initially, a very sharp drop off from this and the last category. A pick in the 8, 9, 10 range really is not worth the value it seems to hold.

11-15: 42%11: 40%, 12: 60%, 13: 50%, 14: 40%, 15: 20%-Interesting to noe that outside the top 7, picks 12 and 13 are the best bang for your buck both with suprisingly higher success rates then a number of picks in front of them. If not for the poor success rate of pick # 15, this block would be better then the block before it.

16-20: 30%16: 10%, 17:40%, 18: 20%, 19: 30%, 20: 50% - An interesting block in that it is worse then both the block before it and after it, with it's strongest pick being it's last at number 20. The anomaly of how poorly pick # 16 performs is interesting to note.

21-25: 36% 21: 50%, 22: 30%, 23: 40%, 24: 40%, 25: 20% - Surpising...4 of the 5 picks in this block have the same statistical returns as those in the 6-10 block. Pick 21 is interesting to say the least. That top 10 sure isn't looking that swell anymore...

26-30: 24% 26: 40%, 27: 20%, 28:30%, 29: 30%, 30: 0% - Value sure can still be found for the cup contenders in the tail end of the draft, unfortunately just not for the cup winner. Over the 10 drafts examined not a single 30th overall pick became an impact player.

[Hockey_Ninja]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I wonder if you could search back over time ... sort out the "deep drafts" from the regular drafts (2003 for example), then look at the success rate for the top five picks?

That would be interesting

http://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/

You can search through every draft here and next to each pick is how many points they have scored in their NHL careers.

[Bonded]

A lot of interesting analysis in that post. Breaks down success rate for forwards, dmen, later rounds and etc.

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Sure you can.

Just saying.

Percentage wise, they're probably not all going to be superstars. One or more might be a bit of a dud too.

There's also various degrees of winning . . . . a gonzo home run, a decent first line player, a second line player . . . . .

You want the gonzo home run.

Cowperson

I agree, not just any of the top 5 will do. The Flames NEED the gonzo home run in the biggest possible way. They can't screw up this pick. In fact, if the team doesn't want to be "wallowing in the desert" for years to come they need their other first rounders to be good to great NHL players too.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by 3 Justin 3

The more videos and highlights I see of Barkov the more I want him. Then I'll watch MacKinnon just skate around players like their in Timbits hockey and I want MacKinnon.

I like Drouin, but I don't think he'll be able to pull off half of his moves he does in the NHL, sure he can make junior defenders look like plugs, most are, but NHL d-man will eat him alive.

That is my concern with Drouin too.

You see lots of this slick puck handlers that make people look silly in junior, but then in the NHL they usually can't pull off those moves (outside of Kane and Datsyuk).

[Husky]

MacKinnon's speed and especially his pullaway speed from defenders reminds me of Duchene.

[Tinordi]

Hitting the home run though is basically luck though. Nobody will be able to say oh yes, the real gem of this draft is Lindholm or Jones or whomever.

Back in the 2007 draft everyone thought Toews was the worst pick in the top 5 and that Staal after scoring 30 goals in his rookie season was the homerun.

[Bonded]

What is the last impact dman to be drafted top 3?

[moon]

Originally Posted by Bonded

What is the last impact dman to be drafted top 3?

Doughty

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Hitting the home run though is basically luck though. Nobody will be able to say oh yes, the real gem of this draft is Lindholm or Jones or whomever.

Back in the 2007 draft everyone thought Toews was the worst pick in the top 5 and that Staal after scoring 30 goals in his rookie season was the homerun.

Agree 100%, is is hard to predict who the best player from a draft class will be in the first 2 to 3 years after the draft, let alone on draft day.

These are 18 year old kids and you never truly know how they will develop.

Look people though Stamkos was going to bust after his first season, then he took it upon himself to go train with Gary Roberts and now he is looked at as a top 5 player.

Maybe he doesn't put in that extra work and isn't the player he is today if he gets drafted by L.A. instead, you never know.

What worries me with the d-men is that the step up to the NHL is a bigger adjustment then for a forward. The speed, strenghth, and size difference is remarkable and I am not sure we can truly predict how a d-man reacts to that change. Recently comparable d-men to Jones just haven't panned out in the NHL, E.Johnson, Hedman, and Larsson were probably just as touted as Jones and had similar positives (big, strong, great skater, etc) but just haven't taken that next step yet.

[Dienasty]

If the Flames get 1st overall, the only trades I would make is to move down to #2 or #3 spot no further. I want to walk away with at least one of the top tier players (Jones, Mackinnon, Drouin). If trading down from 1st to 3rd overall can get you an early second rounder, I am all for it. The Flames need quality (one of the top 3) as well as quantity (1 mid first, 1 end 1st, 1 early 2nd). If there is some way to package 2 of these picks to get someone who is falling (Ristolainen, Nurse, or that Russian guy) package the 18th and early second rounder for the 8th-12th overall pick.

I don't think you make these trades until draft day as you don't know who will be available, but I do hope that the Flames are being proactive and looking into scenarios to get the guys they are targeting.

With this draft the Flames could go from a bottom 5 system to a top 10 system, really quickly. Especially with the progress Sieloff, Wotherspoon, Gillies, and Gaurdreau took this year.

Also next season I would not allow any of my picks to play in the NHL. Give them one more year of seasoning in Junior no point in starting there arbitration clock when the team has no chance of competing.

[Red John]

Originally Posted by moon

Doughty

And a lot of people felt that Zach Bogosian would be the better player at that point, especially since he was younger and all that.

Prospects get micro-analyzed at this point in the year but at the end of the day it's still unpredictable.

It's like playing poker - a good player gives himself the best shot at winning but luck is still involved at the end of the day.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Hitting the home run though is basically luck though. Nobody will be able to say oh yes, the real gem of this draft is Lindholm or Jones or whomever.

Back in the 2007 draft everyone thought Toews was the worst pick in the top 5 and that Staal after scoring 30 goals in his rookie season was the homerun.

Everyone was very high on Toews, especially considering his legendary performance at the World Juniors, and being one of Canada's best forwards at the World Championships without any NHL experience. Before he even became a Blackhawk he was regarded as clutch, a leader, and more importantly a winner. People knew he was the real deal before he even played a game for Chicago. He's become exactly what many thought he would be.

Honestly that top 5 was pretty much set in stone, with the question being who goes where after Johnson goes first. Nobody was disappointed in who they had.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Sure you can.

Just saying.

Percentage wise, they're probably not all going to be superstars. One or more might be a bit of a dud too.

There's also various degrees of winning . . . . a gonzo home run, a decent first line player, a second line player . . . . .

You want the gonzo home run.

Cowperson

Fair enough. I suppose my meaning was that any of the top five have greater potential to be home runs than the last few drafts.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by moon

Doughty

An argument could be made for Hedman.

[moon]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

An argument could be made for Hedman.

I think I need to see more from him and for more than one year.

Admittedly I haven't seen many TB games but I have read a lot of good reports on him so he could be close to getting to that level.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Dagger

Everyone was very high on Toews, especially considering his legendary performance at the World Juniors, and being one of Canada's best forwards at the World Championships without any NHL experience. Before he even became a Blackhawk he was regarded as clutch, a leader, and more importantly a winner. People knew he was the real deal before he even played a game for Chicago. He's become exactly what many thought he would be.

Honestly that top 5 was pretty much set in stone, with the question being who goes where after Johnson goes first. Nobody was disappointed in who they had.

That's a bit revisionist. After Toews was drafted he got injured and had a pretty forgettable last season in college. Many people were questioning the pick as Staal was lighting the league up. I guess they weren't questioning it but at that time people were saying that Toews may have been a dude.