Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[moon]

Originally Posted by neo45

My point is that his boom potential is still all there, but his bust potential has been significantly lowered by having success in the best league for prospects. That would likely lead to him getting drafted higher in this year's draft

He didn't have success in the CHL and his play in the NCAA still leaves ton of potential for bust.

[Tinordi]

Yes I think Janko's bust potential went up this year not down.

Good article by Kent Wilson on NHL equivalency, an utterly flawed metric but still a way to think about how your prospects performed.

http://flamesnation.ca/2013/3/25/fla...le-full-season

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by Niemo

I would deal Stempniak and Stajan for a 2nd round pick each (might have to attach a late pick), and I would deal Cammalleri for a mid-late 1st round pick (retaining 2M of his salary/cap).

It's time to load up!

And who exactly will play for us next year??

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

So I was just wondering. If Mark Jankowski was a bit younger and was eligible for this year's draft. Where do you think he would be ranked? Still a late 1st rounder? Has the extra year of development help raise his stock?

Same area I think.

[Vinny01]

If the Flames win the lottery and get 1st overall. Does anyone think the Flyers would trade Couturier + the 6th overall pick to get Jones? I could really see them making that move. The Flames would then be in position to add Lindholm, Monanhan, Nurse etc with the 6th pick or try and package that with the Blues and/or Pens pick to try and move back in the top 4. Couturier + Drouin/Barkov/MacKinnon/Lindholm/Monahan/etc would be pretty exciting

[moon]

That would be a huge, huge overpayment from Philly.

Even though Holmgren loves big moves I can't imagine he does something that stupid.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by moon

He had an okay season at college. Didn't show a ton of offense so there are still questions of whether he can score at the NHL level. Is still fairly slight even with added weight so still questions of whether he will have strength at the NHL level. I also heard reports of him playing wing this year so could be questions about his ability to play center at the NHL level.

There are certainly questions about him and plenty of red flags about a kid that had an alright season. That doesn't mean it was a bad pick or he won't make it but there is still a lot of question of whether he will make it out not as there would be with any late 1st/2nd round pick.

He may well have spent a lot of time on the wing. He only took 83 draws, where 4 teammates took 450+

http://collegehockeyinc.com/stats/fi...oring&sort=pts


He didn't get a ton of points with only 18 in 34 GP but the team leader only had 24 in 38 GP. Just looking at stats, looks like a team with pretty balanced scoring.

Probably decent for a first year player depending how he was used. Next year should be interesting to see how he progresses.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by moon

That would be a huge, huge overpayment from Philly.

Even though Holmgren loves big moves I can't imagine he does something that stupid.

I think Jones is a player that they would consider the move for. He is EXACTLY what they want and need in a player. If I was moving down from 1st to 6th I would demand a massive overpayment from any team inquiring as well

[H2SO4(aq)]

When it comes to Jankowski, the next two seasons will be pretty telling as to whether we stole a great pick, or if we blew a 1st rounder on a questionable nhler. too early right now to really start analyzing his progress.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think Jones is a player that they would consider the move for. He is EXACTLY what they want and need in a player. If I was moving down from 1st to 6th I would demand a massive overpayment from any team inquiring as well

I agree. I don't think it's a huge over payment at all. The Flyers would get the top player from the draft and we would slide down a tier. That's a big thing to give up. I don't even think that I would want to. I prefer quality over quantity and having the 1st overall would potentially give us a quality player that we would otherwise have no ability to get.

[Dorkmaster]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If the Flames win the lottery and get 1st overall. Does anyone think the Flyers would trade Couturier + the 6th overall pick to get Jones? I could really see them making that move. The Flames would then be in position to add Lindholm, Monanhan, Nurse etc with the 6th pick or try and package that with the Blues and/or Pens pick to try and move back in the top 4. Couturier + Drouin/Barkov/MacKinnon/Lindholm/Monahan/etc would be pretty exciting

Although this would be a great draft to probably do that, I would still prefer we just make the pick. Grab the player that you think can be the next franchise player. The Flames need to build their core first and no way better to do that than picking number 1. You can pick up a surrounding cast in future years, no need to waste a number 1 pick to do that.

The difference between a number 1 pick and a number 6 pick can be huge.

[Ashasx]

Couturier is struggling this year.

It's been said before, they reason why he fell in his draft is because scouts were concerned about his upside. He's made very little progress since his second year in the OHL when he was considered a lock for first overall in the draft.

Philly would have to give up a lot more to get me interested.

[Jing]

Watching those WJC highlights, seems like Lindholm is very tenacious on the forecheck with good speed and acceleration. I would be thrilled if we ended up with Lindholm, only concern is his durability. I don't know his injury history, but moreso he plays a very physical style (well during the WJC anyways), would he be able to maintain that style? I know that it eventually took it toll on Forsberg (which seems to be a comperable play style for Lindholm).

[Canada 02]

Craig Button on Nichushkin:

Actually, Valeri has been averaging 12-14 minutes per game in the KHL playoffs. That is significant for a 17-year old player to say the least. He is a big, powerful winger who seemingly has no flaw in his game. Excellent skater who uses it to beat defenders and with his size, is very hard to deter. Competes and when the game gets into its critical moments, he wants to make a difference. As for the contract, it is something that doesn't worry me because you have to do your due diligence on the player and hear his thoughts. Same questions were there on Tarasenko but he was clear that he wanted to come to the NHL. I have said this before, the talk of a player falling because of his passport is not wise IMO and I look back to a similar situation with Bobby Holik and Jaromir Jagr. He's a top player and it's my opinion that a team has to be satisfied with what and who they are getting not where he is from.

Rasmus Ristolainen:

Rasmus is the type of player who will end up with a range that can be wide. I go back to Brent Seabrook when I watch Rasmus because, Like Brent, he does things that scream NHL and yet at times, the expectation of that happening shift in, shift out becomes unrealistic. He is efficient and I think when you see him take charge, you want that on a regular basis. I have no doubt that Rasmus will be an NHL player for a lot of years and he could be a top 2 or 3 defenseman or a 5 and I think that's why you see the varying opinions.

the best 2-way center in the draft:

There are players that fit that description right through. When you think of two-way players we at times don't think of offense but certainly Pavel Datsyuk would qualify. In a similar way I feel Aleksander Barkov is that type of high end offense who is an excellent two-way player. After that, I would look to Elias Lindholm as similar.

more on Nurse, Domi, Mantha and others here

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Couturier is struggling this year.

It's been said before, they reason why he fell in his draft is because scouts were concerned about his upside. He's made very little progress since his second year in the OHL when he was considered a lock for first overall in the draft.

Philly would have to give up a lot more to get me interested.

Yes, making the NHL as an 18 year old center is very little progress indeed.

The entire Philly team has pretty much struggled this year. Doesn't mean they are going to trade them for what no one else would trade him for either.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by moon

That would be a huge, huge overpayment from Philly.

Even though Holmgren loves big moves I can't imagine he does something that stupid.

I think I would rather MacKinnon. Couts looks like an awesome shutdown, 2a/1b centre but I want the chance at elite.

[Bar-Down]

What do you guys think about Jordan Subban?

Putting up really good points in his second year in the OHL.

51 points in 68 games, +22. 15 G, 36A.

Would be nice if we had a 2nd rounder, or maybe get him with our early 3rd round pick?

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by Ped

Yes, making the NHL as an 18 year old center is very little progress indeed.

The entire Philly team has pretty much struggled this year. Doesn't mean they are going to trade them for what no one else would trade him for either.

Couturier was thought to be at most a year away from being in the NHL, and that was only because of his slight frame. He was considered fairly polished, and a good bet to be a 2 way centre on the 2nd line for a sizeable future(think Jordan Staal).

He doesn't have massive upside like a Schenn or Simmonds which is why he's expendable. Because he was already playing close to the level that was expected of him last year(minus some offense) it's startling that his play has decreased across the board as generally players like him(or what he projects to finish as) are lauded for their consistency.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by dino7c

real scouts (employed by NHL teams) don't give their lists to TSN or anyone else...I just think too much is made of these rankings. Someone picks a player not ranked highly by TSN and its "wow, what were they thinking! so and so was available" when really it takes years to see if it was smart or not.

People are already saying things like "oh can you imagine if they draft this guy instead of that guy" when chances are they have never seen either of them live

Yes they do. He gets a list from 10 NHL scouts. All he does is average them, and the closest he comes to giving any actual information from them is to say something like "he was as high as 6 on one list" or something.

Whilst you are right in saying that rankings aren't the be all end all, they are fairly accurate of player value in a draft(again save for the few outliers every round). And even if said person hasn't seen player live, those that are paid to know these things do and make projections accordingly....they can be wrong obviously.

BUT Jay Feaster has done things like grab Riku Helenius with the 15th pick because he played well in one tournament...he was a projected 3rd round guy. This is ahead of other goalies(that were universally considered better prospects) such as Varlamov and Neuvirth and just behind a guy considered to be a great bet to be a number 1 in Bernier.

It's crazy to look at some of the gems Feaster took in the first/very early second: Andy Rogers, Vladimir Mihalik, Mike Egener, and the aforementioned Helenius. They played a combined 15 games(all Mihalik) and half a period(Helenius). Matt Smaby was taken at 41st in 2003 and he managed 100 games as a bottom pairing plug. The aforementioned 4 were considered to be projects that were 3-4 years awat but had big potential...sound familiar?

[Tinordi]

Button's read confirms my feelings that Nichushkin may be grabbed as early as #2.