The Drive for 30th

[EddyBeers]

Looking at the standings is depressing, every team at the bottom of the league is losing, the bottom six teams all have losses in their streak column. It is probably going to be tight until the end. The Flames need to finish no higher than 28th.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

Looking at the standings is depressing, every team at the bottom of the league is losing, the bottom six teams all have losses in their streak column. It is probably going to be tight until the end. The Flames need to finish no higher than 28th.

It's shouldn't be surprising that the bad teams aren't winning.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

Looking at the standings is depressing, every team at the bottom of the league is losing, the bottom six teams all have losses in their streak column. It is probably going to be tight until the end. The Flames need to finish no higher than 28th.

Your life will be less stressful when you accept that this team isn't finishing bottom 4. It's not happening, relax.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by nik-

Your life will be less stressful when you accept that this team isn't finishing bottom 4. It's not happening, relax.

I've enjoyed your black humour this season.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I've enjoyed your black humour this season.

you racist son of a bitch!

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by nik-

you racist son of a bitch!

haha, not the first time I've been accused of that on this board!

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by nik-

Your life will be less stressful when you accept that this team isn't finishing bottom 4. It's not happening, relax.

You are right, this team will probably lose the next 12 games to get my hopes up and then win their final 7 games to finish 24th.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/

Go there and watch the top video on the right. Beauty goal by MacKinnon in the Q playoffs.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Yeah...I'm a little rusty on my high school math, but I don't think it works that way. Each year is independent of another year, so you can't just multiply it like that. If you finish last, you have 25% to draft first overall that year, regardless of what your position was the year before.

Each year is independent with respect to that pick. So in the first year, they had a 48% chance of picking first.

But what I was saying was that the chance they they managed to pick first all three years was actually quite low and quite 'lucky'.

The chances of getting all 3 #1 picks, for a team that finishes where the Oilers finished over those 3 years, is in fact what I said above.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Why though? Under the old rules, a team finishing last has roughly 48.2% chance to win the lottery since a team can only move up a maximum 4 spots. So any team after the 5th team that wins the lottery, the last place team still picks first. So essentially, you have almost a 1 in 2 chance to pick first if you finished last. You're right that the Oilers were a bit lucky in they year they finished 29th. But I would hardly say it's extremely lucky. It would be like saying winning a rock paper scissors contest 3 times in a row is extremely lucky.

Under the new rules, it is now purely a 25% chance to win the lottery if finishing last overall. I agree it's less than the 48.2%, but again it's not extremely lucky if a team goes 3 years consecutively winning it.

Ok, try this:

You flip a coin - you have a 50% chance at heads.

You flip a second time - you have a 50% chance again.

However, your chances of winning both are 50% x 50% = 25% (1 time in 4)

Now to win a third time, you have to have already won twice and you have to win again, so 25% x 50% = 12.5%

Still with me? So let's apply that to the Oilers:

Year 1 - 48% chance of winning the lottery.

Year 2 - 48% chance of winning the lottery. Chance of winning both: 48% x 48% = 23%

Year 3 - 18.6% chance of wnning the lottery. Chance of wnning all 3: 23% x 18.6% = 4.3%

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ok, try this:

You flip a coin - you have a 50% chance at heads.

You flip a second time - you have a 50% chance again.

However, your chances of winning both are 50% x 50% = 25% (1 time in 4)

Now to win a third time, you have to have already won twice and you have to win again, so 25% x 50% = 12.5%

Still with me? So let's apply that to the Oilers:

Year 1 - 48% chance of winning the lottery.

Year 2 - 48% chance of winning the lottery. Chance of winning both: 48% x 48% = 23%

Year 3 - 18.6% chance of wnning the lottery. Chance of wnning all 3: 23% x 18.6% = 4.3%

This is correct.

[Jets4Life]

No matter how inconsistent the Flames play, there will always be a team that manages to come up on the losing end of the scoreboard much more often - Edmonton.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

No matter how inconsistent the Flames play, there will always be a team that manages to come up on the losing end of the scoreboard much more often - Edmonton.

Sucking up for your OTT mini meltdown the other day?

[djsFlames]

Can't believe Colorado hasn't passed us already. They're young and have too many good pieces on the upswing to still be idling in 15th. Should be closer to 10th right now. Seems like they're also having d/goaltending issues.

As if they need to receive a top 5 pick more than we do though.. Better man up and start playing hockey over there. As for us, I don't like losing but if we want to stay in the bottom 5 range, the Hawks have gotta take the game tomorrow. Shouldn't be too difficult for them at home.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Can't believe Colorado hasn't passed us already. They're young and have too many good pieces on the upswing to still be idling in 15th. Should be closer to 10th right now. Seems like they're also having d/goaltending issues.

As if they need to receive a top 5 pick more than we do though.. Better man up and start playing hockey over there. As for us, I don't like losing but if we want to stay in the bottom 5 range, the Hawks have gotta take the game tomorrow. Shouldn't be too difficult for them at home.

COL has terrible coaching issues

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Sucking up for your OTT mini meltdown the other day?

It's not a meltdown, if it's speaking the truth.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Can't believe Colorado hasn't passed us already. They're young and have too many good pieces on the upswing to still be idling in 15th. Should be closer to 10th right now. Seems like they're also having d/goaltending issues.

As if they need to receive a top 5 pick more than we do though.. Better man up and start playing hockey over there. As for us, I don't like losing but if we want to stay in the bottom 5 range, the Hawks have gotta take the game tomorrow. Shouldn't be too difficult for them at home.

another team full of "young talent" that still sucks ass...a cautionary tale, be careful what you wish

[Red John]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

It's not a meltdown, if it's speaking the truth.

Hence why it was a meltdown.

[Poe969]

so, if the lightning win tonight and we don't, we drop a spot in the standings... I think we should make some deals soon and deplete our roster so we have a better chance at 30th

[Badger Bob]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

This is a thread for those of us who think the best thing that can happen to this team is finishing dead last, and drafting before everyone else, to get their hands on one of these guys.

I like your line of thinking here, but the pessimist in me thinks that, even if the Flames finish last overall, that the top overall pick would end up with another team after the draft lottery. That's just Flames luck. Even so, there'd still be a strong possibility of finally selecting a blue chip prospect instead of a 3rd liner or project pick.