The Drive for 30th

[Daradon]

As a few have said, I'm getting a little numb to the losses, but all this sick of hoping to lose or wanting to suck still makes me mad. I can never cheer for a loss. And I really REALLY don't want to finish 30th. Let the Oil keep that honor, and us always have that bragging right over them.

[Caged Great]

Is anyone else beginning to get worried about the fact that we haven't seen any trades?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Is anyone else beginning to get worried about the fact that we haven't seen any trades?

Leads me to believe that there is far more going on than just player movement.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Is anyone else beginning to get worried about the fact that we haven't seen any trades?

I'm worried that trades won't happen before injuries do.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Is anyone else beginning to get worried about the fact that we haven't seen any trades?

There just aren't enough teams that are out of it or guaranteed to be in it and are willing to go for it. Maybe in 10 days, it will be different, but it is a little concerning as fewer potential trade partners is less of an advantage.

[moon]

If there were more trades being made by other teams possibly taking spots/assets we could have moved guys for or showing that GM's were ready to make moves I would be more worried because it still appears to be slow all over and GM's still trying to figure out what they are willing to give up I am not as worried as I might be.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Is anyone else beginning to get worried about the fact that we haven't seen any trades?

Nope. Most of it happens closer to or on the trade deadline. Often times waiting longer increases the value of your assets as teams get in on bidding wars.

Let's say there are two premium defensemen available, J-Bo and someone else. The someone else gets dealt to a contender. Now all the teams that want a premium defensemen have only Bouw left as an option and they may also be competing with the team that acquired the someone else. Starts a bidding war and you may get the best offer near the deadline.

Same thing could happen with Iginla/Clowe/or whoever.

The Iginla trade is tricky and I wouldn't expect it to come together quickly. Feaster really needs to do his due diligence on that one and make sure he gets the best possible value back.

Why would people be expecting trades this far out from the deadline?

[EddyBeers]

I am just worried about injuries. I am sure that the Flames are going to make some moves, even the Flames cannot be so stupid as to not make moves this year.

I am hopeful that no movement means that the Flames are targeting teams top prospects and that they are working on the major pieces. I believe that once they move Iginla or Kipper, the other trades will follow.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I'm worried that trades won't happen before injuries do.

Injuries can work both ways. If a real contender suffers a key injury (Neal out for the season for example) it could increase their desperation to make a big impact trade for a guy like Iginla.

But yeah, hopefully our assets that could be moved don't get injured.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Why would people be expecting trades this far out from the deadline?

Because the media (mainly TSN) hypes it up so much it's ridiculous.

[3 Justin 3]

This is going to sound extremely Oiler-esque, but if we were to tank the next two seasons and get the next 2 1st overalls (2014-2015), we could potentially draft Ekblad and Connor McDavid (this guy has as many points as MacKinnon or close to him and they had to make an exception to let him in the CHL since he is so young).

McDavid, MacKinnon and Ekblad is a much better crop than Nugget-Hopkins, Hall and Yakupov.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by 3 Justin 3

This is going to sound extremely Oiler-esque, but if we were to tank the next two seasons and get the next 2 1st overalls (2014-2015), we could potentially draft Ekblad and Connor McDavid (this guy has as many points as MacKinnon or close to him and they had to make an exception to let him in the CHL since he is so young).

McDavid, MacKinnon and Ekblad is a much better crop than Nugget-Hopkins, Hall and Yakupov.

You have to get extremely lucky now as the league was tired of the Oilers purposely

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by 3 Justin 3

This is going to sound extremely Oiler-esque, but if we were to tank the next two seasons and get the next 2 1st overalls (2014-2015), we could potentially draft Ekblad and Connor McDavid (this guy has as many points as MacKinnon or close to him and they had to make an exception to let him in the CHL since he is so young).

McDavid, MacKinnon and Ekblad is a much better crop than Nugget-Hopkins, Hall and Yakupov.

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

You have to get extremely lucky now as the league was tired of the Oilers purposely

Assuming a team finished 30th, 30th and 29th over 3 seasons, the chances of them getting 3 1st overall picks, under the prior rules, was 4.3% (48 x 48 x 18.8).

The odds now are 1.2% (25 x 25 x 18.8)

If they keep the rules the way they are now, there is virtually no chance that a team will ever get 3 consecutive 1st overall picks again

Also, the fact that the Oilers did it - even under the old rules - is really, really lucky

[$ven27]

More pathetic then lucky IMO.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by $ven27

More pathetic then lucky IMO.

Entirely pathetic.

I am only referring to the math of the event - not to any accomplishments on their part as an organization

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Lanny'sDaMan

Then I am a moron and freaking proud of it. Yes I am frustrated beyond belief, and I piss and moan about the Flames more often then gush about them these last few years. That being said, I also will NEVER cheer for this team to lose. I want wins Gul Durnit. Losing is NOT fun. Winning is. Again yes this team needs to make some HUGE changes, as there is a systemic problem with the core of the team. But again, I HATE seeing them lose.

So call me a moron, rock on with that. I will still have pride and cheer for wins EVERY. LAST. GAME.

So if the Flames are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, you still want them to win every remaining game? That is the definition of moron...

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Assuming a team finished 30th, 30th and 29th over 3 seasons, the chances of them getting 3 1st overall picks, under the prior rules, was 4.3% (48 x 48 x 18.8).

The odds now are 1.2% (25 x 25 x 18.8)

If they keep the rules the way they are now, there is virtually no chance that a team will ever get 3 consecutive 1st overall picks again

Also, the fact that the Oilers did it - even under the old rules - is really, really lucky

Yeah...I'm a little rusty on my high school math, but I don't think it works that way. Each year is independent of another year, so you can't just multiply it like that. If you finish last, you have 25% to draft first overall that year, regardless of what your position was the year before.

[ramizle]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Yeah...I'm a little rusty on my high school math, but I don't think it works that way. Each year is independent of another year, so you can't just multiply it like that. If you finish last, you have 25% to draft first overall that year, regardless of what your position was the year before.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Assuming a team finished 30th, 30th and 29th over 3 seasons, the chances of them getting 3 1st overall picks, under the prior rules, was 4.3% (48 x 48 x 18.8).

The odds now are 1.2% (25 x 25 x 18.8)

If they keep the rules the way they are now, there is virtually no chance that a team will ever get 3 consecutive 1st overall picks again

Also, the fact that the Oilers did it - even under the old rules - is really, really lucky

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Ark2

So if the Flames are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, you still want them to win every remaining game? That is the definition of moron...

Ark, no need to get personal, Lanny, no need to invest that much of your soul in an NHL team.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by ramizle

Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Assuming a team finished 30th, 30th and 29th over 3 seasons, the chances of them getting 3 1st overall picks, under the prior rules, was 4.3% (48 x 48 x 18.8).

The odds now are 1.2% (25 x 25 x 18.8)

If they keep the rules the way they are now, there is virtually no chance that a team will ever get 3 consecutive 1st overall picks again

Also, the fact that the Oilers did it - even under the old rules - is really, really lucky

Why though? Under the old rules, a team finishing last has roughly 48.2% chance to win the lottery since a team can only move up a maximum 4 spots. So any team after the 5th team that wins the lottery, the last place team still picks first. So essentially, you have almost a 1 in 2 chance to pick first if you finished last. You're right that the Oilers were a bit lucky in they year they finished 29th. But I would hardly say it's extremely lucky. It would be like saying winning a rock paper scissors contest 3 times in a row is extremely lucky.

Under the new rules, it is now purely a 25% chance to win the lottery if finishing last overall. I agree it's less than the 48.2%, but again it's not extremely lucky if a team goes 3 years consecutively winning it.