The Drive for 30th

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The kid was playing in a "bush" league at the time. The Flames knew about his plans to go to the USHL and then college or straight to college. The NCAA is a not a "bush" league, it is one of the best developmental leagues in the world. But kids who play at lower levels can be harder to project because you can't measure their progress against the best in their age group. So kids taken from Canadian high school, US high school, Junior A can sometimes be tricky to project. Opinions will vary greatly on these players. It has nothing to do with being cute or thinking you are smarter. It is watching a kid dominate a crappy league and using your scouting ability to properly project his NHL upside. Some teams may have scouted Jankowski significantly less than we did and thus weren't comfortable projecting him as a 1st rounder. There are still some great players coming out of obscure countries or leagues that aren't as heavily scouted.

You don't use the draft to get players for "now" unless you're drafting top 3-5. Most players taken outside the top 10 take 4-5 years to fully develop. Look at how many years it has been since we took Backlund and how it looks like he just now is developing into the player he was projected to be.

I think your expectations on the draft are a bit off. And I'm not sure Teravainen would be helping "now" either so your argument falls apart there.

Well yes obviously he's playing in the NCAA now ... he wasn't at the time, so obviously my comment was directed at where he was playing. I think Teravainen is closer, which is where the "now" comment comes from, I didn't mean the next season, just a shorter time out.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by nik-

Well that came across more smug than I intended. My perceptions are based getting a kid who looked great playing in a really weak league. 3 or 4th round ok, 1st? ... eesh.

Should Kyle Turris have gone in the 3rd or 4th round because he played in Junior A? Nope, he was a unanimous top 5 pick despite playing in a weaker league.

You make a list and take the kids you think have the biggest upside and chance of achieving that upside. If you project a guy as a potential #1 centre then you take him in the 1st round regardless of what league you are drafting him out of.

At least we showed good asset management no? They gambled that they could trade down, pick up a free 2nd rounder and still be able to take the guy they liked the best. Zero chance he would've been available in the 3rd or 4th round.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Psytic

We would likely be finishing with out him and our picks.

BS IMO. Moot point anyways since you can't prove that statement.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

Well, not quite. All we know is that they had the next group close enough that they knew they'd get a player they want even if they trade down. It doesn't follow that they clearly liked Jankowski better than anyone that went 14th-21st.

Pretty clear from listening to all the post draft talk with Feaster, Weisbrod and Button that Jankowski was the guy they were targetting and thus the guy they had highest on their list when they went to trade down.

Feaster went on TSN and told them that Weisbrod was advocating trading the 1st rounder until he personally scouted Jankowski. He also said Weisbrod believes Jankowski could be the best player out of the whole draft in several years. I rewatched the coverage of the Jankowski just last night in fact. So unless they are lying through their teeth (which they have no motivation to do in this case) it does follow.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by nik-

Yeah, funny how every team gets exactly the guy they targeted in a 30 team draft. As far as this draft, we won't likely won't finish bottom two, but we'll still end up with a nice player and I hope a center.

How many of those teams have the player's name stiched onto the jersey they present him at the draft?

Say what you want about media hype at the draft but I think that is a pretty big sign that the Flames knew exactly who they wanted ahead of time and played their hand to not only get him but to also get a 2nd back.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Do you think the Flames would have selected Jankowski 14th if they hadn't traded down?

I doubt it.

Pretty positive they would have. See my post above for the reasons why.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

BS IMO. Moot point anyways since you can't prove that statement.

How is this "BS"? That is an entirely possible scenario. Just because you choose to ignore it does not mean that it would not have been an issue.

[Flash Walken]

If the Flames already had a second rounder, do you think they trade up to get Jankowski?

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

If the Flames already had a second rounder, do you think they trade up to get Jankowski?

I think the Flames had a plethora of guys they really liked. Some of you are putting way too much thought into what an already boastful GM said post-pick.

If Jankowski was picked right before the Flames Feaster would have came out smiling, picked another player and said this is the guy we were targeting all along.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

If the Flames already had a second rounder, do you think they trade up to get Jankowski?

I doubt it - they clearly felt they could get him where they did.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

I think the Flames had a plethora of guys they really liked. Some of you are putting way too much thought into what an already boastful GM said post-pick.

If Jankowski was picked right before the Flames Feaster would have came out smiling, picked another player and said this is the guy we were targeting all along.

Right.

So do you think if they have a 2nd rounder they go out of their way to make sure they pick Jankowski, or leave it up in the air predicting they could get him later in the draft?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

That's always the feel-good story after every draft - "we got exactly who we wanted!" For all we know they would have taken Hertl if he was available but he just wasn't so far ahead that it really mattered to them.

They had Jankowski stitched on his sweater, in the pre-draft interview the entire management and scouting staff was in attendance. He was the player they wanted

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by nik-

Yeah, funny how every team gets exactly the guy they targeted in a 30 team draft.

Nope. Some teams end up dealing out of the first round for two 2nd's when nobody they had high fell to them. Some teams deal down in the 1st because they aren't in love with the guys available and think they'll get the guy they like best a little further down in the 1st.

What you do get is a high % of teams that end up drafting a kid they had higher on their list than the position they selected him. And that happens because everybody has wildly different lists. As soon as an "off the board" pick goes, it pushes everybody down one.

When teams say, "we were shocked that kid was there, we had him really high on our list" they aren't BSing us. It is just the nature of the draft and the difference of opinion that leads to teams getting guys they had higher than other teams.

One example is our pick of Baertschi who was apparently ranked in our top 8 that year and we took at 13th.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Right.

So do you think if they have a 2nd rounder they go out of their way to make sure they pick Jankowski, or leave it up in the air predicting they could get him later in the draft?

No idea, don't care either way.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Pretty clear from listening to all the post draft talk with Feaster, Weisbrod and Button that Jankowski was the guy they were targetting and thus the guy they had highest on their list when they went to trade down.

Feaster went on TSN and told them that Weisbrod was advocating trading the 1st rounder until he personally scouted Jankowski. He also said Weisbrod believes Jankowski could be the best player out of the whole draft in several years. I rewatched the coverage of the Jankowski just last night in fact. So unless they are lying through their teeth (which they have no motivation to do in this case) it does follow.

It actually doesn't follow, but I'm not saying a person can't have reasons to think that Jankowski was the highest guy on their list at that point. And I wouldn't call it "lying through their teeth" - teams just always say that they got exactly the guy they wanted.

[GreenLantern]

Didn't Feaster say that Sieloff was a guy they were considering taking in the 1st round?

I think they made out like bandits if Jankowski and Sieloff were both rated as top 30 players by them.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

If Jankowski was picked right before the Flames Feaster would have came out smiling, picked another player and said this is the guy we were targeting all along.

I don't think so. They'd talk the guy up sure. But Feaster wouldn't have gone on a big spiel about how we were going to trade the 1st rounder until Weisbrod scouted the kid, how Weisbrod thought he could be the best player coming out of that draft.

Feaster was clearly being quite honest and open about the fact that Jankowski was the guy they were targetting.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I don't think so. They'd talk the guy up sure. But Feaster wouldn't have gone on a big spiel about how we were going to trade the 1st rounder until Weisbrod scouted the kid, how Weisbrod thought he could be the best player coming out of that draft.

Feaster was clearly being quite honest and open about the fact that Jankowski was the guy they were targetting.

Jay Feaster is the least informative General Manager in hockey.

I would be inclined to believe precisely nothing that comes out of his mouth.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

It actually doesn't follow, but I'm not saying a person can't have reasons to think that Jankowski was the highest guy on their list at that point. And I wouldn't call it "lying through their teeth" - teams just always say that they got exactly the guy they wanted.

No they don't always say that and they certainly don't talk the kid up the way they talked up Jankowksi. I've watched the last 18 or so drafts and seen hundreds of interviews with GMs. You guys are not acknowledging the difference between what Feaster said last year and the usual speech given.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

If Jankowski was picked right before the Flames Feaster would have came out smiling, picked another player and said this is the guy we were targeting all along.

They might have said that but the chances that they would have had a jersey with that player's name on it would have been considerably less likely.