The Drive for 30th

[nik-]

Originally Posted by fotze

I don't think anyone doubts that you will let us know if you are right on that one.

I'll probably forget

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by nik-

He went around where Craig Button, who likely has a pipeline into our room, projected him to go. That's not "many". Also the claims of "other teams were going to take him in the first round" which only come from our team sources don't really do much for me.

Either way, I hope I'm totally off base with my thoughts on Jankowski, because we need a player like they think he's going to be.

Interestingly, Button had Teräväinen at 6th. I think when you actually have the future of your team on the line, your priorities change a little as opposed to when you're just doing a theoretical list.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Yeah I don't think that would be the case. Can you provide any recent example of when this has happened? Was Crosby taking headshots in the Q?

Crosby didn't stay in the Q after being drafted. Wouldn't surprise me if he had a concussion or two in junior but I don't have that info. By "headhunting" I meant the opposition would be looking to play that player very physically. Perhaps a poor choice of words.

I just think it obvious that a smallish player like RNH who is the best player in the league would be focused on. Every defensemen is going to take their shots at him and he's going to be playing half the game. Obviously RNH is a slippery guy but all it takes is some meathead WHLer to make a bad decision and the kid could be hurt badly. You don't think every WHL team would be keying their gameplan around stopping RNH after he goes #1 overall in the draft?

On the other hand in the NHL he would be playing far less, wouldn't be keyed on by the opposition. You have the opportunity to shelter him against very physical teams.

I just don't buy the argument that a guy who is obviously NHL calibre should have been in junior that year. I've seen arguments that he needed to bulk up but I think he's as likely to get hurt in the WHL as the NHL for the factors I mentioned above (playing way more ice time, being keyed again) and you really bulk up in the offseason, not during the season.

Anyways that was a digression. Back to drooling over top prospects!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Wolven

It seems a lot of people are forgetting that the new NHL draft lottery system is in place.

Not sure where you get that impression from. I think most of us are aware of the new lottery rules. The worst team in the league still has a 100% chance to draft in the bottom 2.

The majority of draft lotteries have been won by teams in the bottom 5 because those teams have the greatest chance of winning it. So unless a team outside the bottom 5 wins it, the result won't be any different than under the previous rules.

Not sure a team lower than 8th has ever won it, have they?

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by nik-

He went around where Craig Button, who likely has a pipeline into our room, projected him to go. That's not "many". Also the claims of "other teams were going to take him in the first round" which only come from our team sources don't really do much for me.
.

As a draft nut - I read a ton of different previews, mocks and what not heading into each year. Button was far from the only guy that had Jankowski in the first round.

A couple of examples
Red Line Report had him going 15 in their final mock
Hockey Prospect had him just outside the first at 36
McKeens had him at 37
SB Nation had him at 28
Bleacherreport had him listed in an article about the "7 prospects you should know bfore the draft" saying

"All things considered, Jankowski is the ultimate boom or bust pick. He could be selected anywhere from late in the top 10 to the middle of the second round, but if given the opportunity and time to develop properly, Jankowski could make the GM that selects him look like a genius. "

He had some buzz around him before the draft - enough that he was included in discussion on this site as well.

Just because you didn't know about him - doesn't mean he wasn't well known.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by nik-

Well we'll see whose right.

It's not about who's right. I'm not even saying that Jankowski will be better than Tervainen. I'm saying that you are judging a situation where your perceptions of it seem to be off.

I have no idea who will be better long-term and have no problem admitting that.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

They've already tried to trade the pick.

I don't think it's irrational at all.

Technically no, they did not try to trade the pick.

And once again the people who continually bring this up never seem to factor in that Ryan O'Reilly would've helped this team and we wouldn't likely be finishing in the bottom 8 with him. He would instantly step into our weakest position. Oh, and he's got 8 points in 10 games so far despite missing time due to injury and not being there since the start of the season.

Based on what I've seen of O'Reilly I would deal a non top 8 pick + 3rd rounder for him.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

It's not about who's right. I'm not even saying that Jankowski will be better than Tervainen. I'm saying that you are judging a situation where your perceptions of it seem to be off.

I have no idea who will be better long-term and have no problem admitting that.

Well that came across more smug than I intended. My perceptions are based getting a kid who looked great playing in a really weak league. 3 or 4th round ok, 1st? ... eesh.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

It's not about who's right. I'm not even saying that Jankowski will be better than Tervainen. I'm saying that you are judging a situation where your perceptions of it seem to be off.

I have no idea who will be better long-term and have no problem admitting that.

It's not really about Teräväinen and Jankowski either. The Flames traded down because they had enough names on their list that were all close to each other. If Jankowski doesn't make it and players between 14 and 21 do, then it'll look bad, but we'll have to see.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by nik-

Well it's the Jankowski pick that worries me. I mean, it's ok to target a guy, but sometimes something else happens and you need to adapt, which I believe is the case with Teravainen. I just hope that if we get a high pick, the drafting group doesn't go into "we're more clever than everyone else" mode and get cute with the pick.

I don't really understand your logic. They obviously had Jankowski somewhere close to their top 10 and ahead of Teravainen. There was no need to adapt since they liked Jankowski better.

Not sure what you mean about getting cute with the pick or thinking they are more clever. They made their list and picked the guy they thought would be the best NHLer down the road. Jankowski was hard to project because he wasn't playing at a high level. Much like Chucko and Zajac who were playing in the BCHL when they were drafted. Obviously the Flames felt comfortable projecting him as a top two line centre with size, skill and speed.

What is really weird is when fans get fixated on a certain prospect that we passed up. Have you seen a ton of Teravainen? Why do you think he'll be so much better than Jankowski? Have you ever seen Jankowski? If you haven't seen much of either guy then I'm not sure why your opinion is so strong.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Technically no, they did not try to trade the pick.

And once again the people who continually bring this up never seem to factor in that Ryan O'Reilly would've helped this team and we wouldn't likely be finishing in the bottom 8 with him. He would instantly step into our weakest position. Oh, and he's got 8 points in 10 games so far despite missing time due to injury and not being there since the start of the season.

Based on what I've seen of O'Reilly I would deal a non top 8 pick + 3rd rounder for him.

We would likely be finishing with out him and our picks.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by nik-

Well that came across more smug than I intended. My perceptions are based getting a kid who looked great playing in a really weak league. 3 or 4th round ok, 1st? ... eesh.

I think the Flames went for a home run pick because it was a weak draft from top to bottom.

Remember, Weisbrod was actually encouraging the Flames to trade their first, because he didn’t see it as a good draft.

In my view from top to bottom in the first, it wasn’t a good draft. Guys drafted in the top 5 would go 6-10 this year, guys in the teens would normally go in the 20s, and so on.

The offensive guys available in the mid/late first and second all had flaws – which is why you saw teams load up on dmen I think, passing on guys like TT, Aberg, Collberg, etc.

I think years from now we will see a higher than normal bust rate from this draft – so the Flames approach seemed to be to swing for the fences, and pick a guy with the right physical tools. It could end up being brilliant, but if not – they likely still have a quality 2nd/3rd pairing nasty piece of work dman.

I actually really like how they managed the risk of a poor draft, while still giving themselves a potential long-term win.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I don't really understand your logic. They obviously had Jankowski somewhere close to their top 10 and ahead of Teravainen. There was no need to adapt since they liked Jankowski better.
[...]

Well, not quite. All we know is that they had the next group close enough that they knew they'd get a player they want even if they trade down. It doesn't follow that they clearly liked Jankowski better than anyone that went 14th-21st.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I don't really understand your logic. They obviously had Jankowski somewhere close to their top 10 and ahead of Teravainen. There was no need to adapt since they liked Jankowski better.

Not sure what you mean about getting cute with the pick or thinking they are more clever. They made their list and picked the guy they thought would be the best NHLer down the road. Jankowski was hard to project because he wasn't playing at a high level. Much like Chucko and Zajac who were playing in the BCHL when they were drafted. Obviously the Flames felt comfortable projecting him as a top two line centre with size, skill and speed.

What is really weird is when fans get fixated on a certain prospect that we passed up. Have you seen a ton of Teravainen? Why do you think he'll be so much better than Jankowski? Have you ever seen Jankowski? If you haven't seen much of either guy then I'm not sure why your opinion is so strong.

Agreed.

Each team has a list - so there are no surprises. They don't get surprised when a guy drops, because that guy would be on their list where they value him. So there is never any reason to go "OMG! Tervainen dropped - we never even thought that could happen - so what do we do now?".

The only list that matters is the one the team has.

[Flash Walken]

Do you think the Flames would have selected Jankowski 14th if they hadn't traded down?

I doubt it.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Do you think the Flames would have selected Jankowski 14th if they hadn't traded down?

I doubt it.

In fact I do think that.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

In fact I do think that.

That's fair, no real inferences to be made either way.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

In fact I do think that.

That's always the feel-good story after every draft - "we got exactly who we wanted!" For all we know they would have taken Hertl if he was available but he just wasn't so far ahead that it really mattered to them.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by nik-

Oh definitely it's just crazy speculation, which is all we truly can do with in comes to their decisions.

But I mean this kid who could help us is sitting there, and they pass on him to trade down to take some kid from a bush league. The odd part is for a team focused on "now" they take a player who's so far from "now" it's not even funny. To me it's always come across as they think they see something that how many other scouts just didn't? Everyone in the NHL is pretty smart at their job, the scouts know hockey. The days of finding some kid in Sweden that no one knew about in these days of youtube and twitter? ... unlikely.

The kid was playing in a "bush" league at the time. The Flames knew about his plans to go to the USHL and then college or straight to college. The NCAA is a not a "bush" league, it is one of the best developmental leagues in the world. But kids who play at lower levels can be harder to project because you can't measure their progress against the best in their age group. So kids taken from Canadian high school, US high school, Junior A can sometimes be tricky to project. Opinions will vary greatly on these players. It has nothing to do with being cute or thinking you are smarter. It is watching a kid dominate a crappy league and using your scouting ability to properly project his NHL upside. Some teams may have scouted Jankowski significantly less than we did and thus weren't comfortable projecting him as a 1st rounder. There are still some great players coming out of obscure countries or leagues that aren't as heavily scouted.

You don't use the draft to get players for "now" unless you're drafting top 3-5. Most players taken outside the top 10 take 4-5 years to fully develop. Look at how many years it has been since we took Backlund and how it looks like he just now is developing into the player he was projected to be.

I think your expectations on the draft are a bit off. And I'm not sure Teravainen would be helping "now" either so your argument falls apart there.

[nik-]

Yeah, funny how every team gets exactly the guy they targeted in a 30 team draft. As far as this draft, we won't likely won't finish bottom two, but we'll still end up with a nice player and I hope a center.