[News] Flames offersheet O'Reilly UPDATE: Avs match

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Mike Vernon

If we miss by a few spots we pick 12-14. Seriously people must think their are 15 Sydney Crosbys in the draft this year. How many points does Taylor Hall have this year??? He was No. 1 overall.

Oh I agree: there's no guarantee what kind of player you're going to get in the draft - only that the more picks you have and the higher they are, the greater your chances of picking up a good one.

But the only way to win in a cap-strapped league is to develop your own talent and thereby have some great players playing for less than their free-agent market value. It sounds to me that, at $5 million per, the Flames are likely paying O'Reilly free-agent market value (or more) during the two years of the contract. Combine that with the rest of their bloated salaries, and lack of guys overperforming their contracts as they develop, and it doesn't look like a recipe for success to me.

[Fischy13]

If he comes to the Flames, holds out in the end and someone else offer sheets him, it'll be 3 - 1st rounders for compensation.....

[Captain_Obvious]

Originally Posted by moon

I thought it was also based on his dad getting involved and talk about him and Duchene not getting along last year before the holdout. Plus him wanting to come here doesn't nullify reasons why people think he is a cancer because of this holdout.

So you think he is a cancer or are worried about it?

In case it didn't come across, I think that's off base.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Originally Posted by Captain_Obvious

Let's not get stuck in semantics here... the percentage is based off the order the teams finish.

If you're suggesting finishing 8th-15th means we should turn down a move like this because it "might" be a first over-all pick... that's completely off the mark and not what's being suggested here at all.

Unless we finish dead last or just outside of that, the chances we're losing McKinnon and/or Jones in this deal are very remote.

I'm merely suggesting that if you meant "top five pick" or "top ten pick" and not "lottery pick", that's what you should have said. Carry on.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by jeffman

So what O reilly was a 2nd rounder and i doubt hes even a #1 center

His draft position doesn't matter

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Captain_Obvious

- Your last sentence cries about a rebuild. Adding one of the best young defensive centres in the NHL (something proven, not left to chance like a draft pick) IS re-building.

that's what the Leafs tried with Kessel, look how well that turned out

[moon]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

Pretty sure moon said this about Turris as well.

Didn't say that at all and haven't said it about O'Reilly either.

[M*A*S*H 4077]

Originally Posted by jeffman

He's scouting European leagues, I dont think hes involved with o reilly

Mike Chambers ‏@MChambersDP
Guess who had big hand in O'Reilly offer sheet? Michel Goulet. Here's link: http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_...calgary-flames … via @denverpost

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by Captain_Obvious

We have the worst collection of centres in the NHL, including our prospect pool.

So because we have the pipe dream of wanting a No. 1 centre, we should turn down the shot at getting one of the best young defensive centres in the game because he's not Crosby or Thornton?

Really odd logic.

Either a move makes you better, or it doesn't. Not making any moves because it doesn't seem like the best possible move is really odd and terrible logic.

I didn't say not to make any moves, but I don't think they should have made this one. This clearly shows they're in the "win now" mode, they want a #1 center to play with Iggy. I don't think ROR is worth this much and I don't think he's going to be a successful #1 center in this league. The moves I would have made would be to get more first round picks and develop a team, not give away first round picks in hopes that our current team can maybe make 8th place and hope every other team craps the bed and we all of suddent become good.

I am all for changes with this team, they aren't good and changes have to be made. Adding a (IMO) over-hyped player to a below average team isn't going to make them a good team and giving up part of the future, especially in a deep draft, is a step in the wrong direction.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Captain_Obvious

So you think he is a cancer or are worried about it?

In case it didn't come across, I think that's off base.

Don't know if he is or isn't just saying him wanting to be here doesn't change that.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

Every team who fails to make the playoffs is entered in the lottery. So, do you know what a lottery pick is?

Yeah but if you finish 9-12 you can't get in the top 3 no matter what....so really you are in the lottery but can't actually win the lottery...

[$ven27]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I don't see this as a good thing at all. The guy reminds me of Langkow, and I don't mean that in a good way. Sure, some are going to jump all over me and say how awesome Langkow was and how we would be lucky to have a guy turn into someone like him..... Well you know how everyone has been saying that we haven't had a top line center in 20 years.... it's going to be even longer. O'Reilly is going to be a really really good second line center who's going to be forced into a top line role and probably not do that well with it. With the Av's he was behind Stastny, Duchene and playing with some decent others, he wasn't on the top line because they didn't see him as a top line center. If the Avs thought he was a top line center, theyw ould have traded Stastny and kept O'Reilly....they didn't.

I have such a bad feeling that this is going to turn into the Flames giving up a potential franchise player for a second line forward that's being over hyped.

Last year ROR was on the top line playing along side Landeskog. Stastny seems to have really fallen out of favour and between the three he's on the bottom. He brings grit, superb defense and good on the faceoffs, but I do agree that if the pick is top 5 we could end up on the wrong side of this deal. Also just a little food for thought, I have a few friends who are Avs fans and hey say before his concussion Landeskog wasn't the same, or wasn't as effective without ROR.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by jeffman

He's scouting European leagues, I dont think hes involved with o reilly

According to the Denver Post, Goulet was key in negotiating the O'Reilly offersheet:
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_...calgary-flames

[getbak]

Originally Posted by jeffman

He's scouting European leagues, I dont think hes involved with o reilly

He's a pro scout who still lives in Denver year-round. There was a post somewhere earlier in this thread that said he was heavily involved in the negotiations.

[Captain_Obvious]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

that's what the Leafs tried with Kessel, look how well that turned out

Sounds like a great reason for us to turn down a shot at one of the best young centres in the league.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

So your argument is the ROR is all about the money.

You are saying he won't sign a long term deal at $5M with Calgary, but will with another team?

Again, why would this matter?

So you're saying ROR will refuse to take anything less than $6.5M so that he can hit free agency and then sign long term at $5M with another team?

Why wouldn't he do that with the Flames?

Why wouldn't he do that with a contending team if the Flames choose to trade him?

I don't understand your reasoning as to why he MUST hold out to get more money. He won't be getting $6.5M regardless. Everyone knows that.

You are painting him out to be a villain who is only out to screw over teams. When was the last time this happened in the NHL?

No, I am saying that in the scenario where Feaster goes to his agent in January of next year and says "Hey, we would really like to sign Ryan to a 5 year 25 million dollar contract", his agent has three options at that point in time:

1) Advise Ryan to sign the contract, tell him he likes it in Calgary and will not get a better offer anywhere else;
2) Tell him to not sign and tell him the Flames will certainly sign him to a 6.5 million dollar QO for the next two years. He is then 3 million dollars ahead and in order to recoup the lost wages just has to be good enough to sign a 3 year 12 million dollar deal;
3) Tell him the Flames will not qualify him but that he thinks that ROR will get more money on the open market.

It is not like there is a static market for O'Reilly at 5 million dollars a year and no team will offer above or below that. Christ, today's signing should demonstrate that fact. Any long term offer for O'Reilly in all likelihood has to be at or near the top of what he could get for that term of contract for him to sign. Not sure why he would give up his leverage for any reason other than being a good guy.

If I was a betting man, I would bet on options 2 or 3 every single time.

[CaramonLS]

nm

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

I really am not trying to be a dick, but I am not sure you understand what a qualifying offer is.

A qualifying offer is a contract offer, the Flames would be contractually bound to pay ROR 6.5 million dollars a year if they made a qualifying offer and he accepted. The only way they would not be bound to pay him that would be if ROR and his agent rejected the 6.5 million offer and wanted more money, completely misread the market and ended up signing for less. It is not some sort of negotiating ploy, it is a contract offer from the Flames to ROR to retain his rights. Not sure what world we are living in where ROR is offered 6.5 million a year and turns it down to negotiate a lower salary.

Unless it's changed in the new CBA (and I don't think it has) teams can opt for arbitration in lieu of giving a qualifying offer. In that situation the lowest a player can be awarded is 85% of his previous salary, so about $5.5M.

Of course that fact also makes the situation more palatable for Colorado.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

Every team who fails to make the playoffs is entered in the lottery. So, do you know what a lottery pick is?

In 2012, here were the odds of winning the lottery:

25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
6.2% - Anaheim Ducks - 80 points
4.7% - Minnesota Wild - 81 points
3.6% - Carolina Hurricanes - 82 points
2.7% - Winnipeg Jets - 84 points
2.1% - Tampa Bay Lightning - 84 points
1.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado) - 88 points
1.1% - Buffalo Sabres - 89 points
0.8% - Dallas Stars - 89 points
0.5% - Calgary Flames - 90 points

The Flames probably were going to finish in that 4.7 to .5% range. Sorry, you don't give up on the chance to acquire a player like O'Reilly for those odds.

[djsFlames]

O'Reilly works as a move for both winning now and the future.

Tis why it's great.