[News] Flames offersheet O'Reilly UPDATE: Avs match

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Remember when you mentioned how my posts have sagged with constant sarcasm last year? I've been getting that annoying vibe from you lately.

I was talking more about shipping out Iginla, Bouwmeester etc if we're not in a playoff stop, which I don't think adding O'Reily puts us in either but is a good step forward.

I prefer to think of it like nik-, it's black humour, all you can do sometimes is laugh.

You are absolutely correct in saying acquiring o'reilly via offer sheet doesn't preclude the flames from dealing bouwmeester, iginla etc., to get a first, second and third round picks back ('recoup'), however, I also know with a reasonable confidence that you are also of the belief that the flames have no intention of making a concerted effort towards 'stockpiling' picks or building through the draft.

Certainly it doesn't prevent Calgary from getting different draft picks in time for the draft, but it is very obviously a move that illustrates the franchise is uninterested in drafting players.

I started a thread on it a year ago and the evidence only continues to mount.

[Ozy_Flame]

This actually makes good sense from the Flames perspective. Assuming Stajan keeps playing over his head and Backlund can make it back and keep producing, this allows us options. If we get O'Reilly and we still aren't in a playoff spot, we can move Tanguay back to wing, and let Cammalleri go for a 1st rounder come trade deadline (and he will fetch one - teams always overpay). Once that happens, we've pretty much balanced out next year's pay from Cammalleri to O'Reilly, and created better salary dispersion among all three forward ranks. This may also effectively render Cervenka out of a spot for next year.

[Poe969]

I don't see this as a good thing at all. The guy reminds me of Langkow, and I don't mean that in a good way. Sure, some are going to jump all over me and say how awesome Langkow was and how we would be lucky to have a guy turn into someone like him..... Well you know how everyone has been saying that we haven't had a top line center in 20 years.... it's going to be even longer. O'Reilly is going to be a really really good second line center who's going to be forced into a top line role and probably not do that well with it. With the Av's he was behind Stastny, Duchene and playing with some decent others, he wasn't on the top line because they didn't see him as a top line center. If the Avs thought he was a top line center, theyw ould have traded Stastny and kept O'Reilly....they didn't.

I have such a bad feeling that this is going to turn into the Flames giving up a potential franchise player for a second line forward that's being over hyped.

[Captain_Obvious]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

i'm really sick of this win now mentality. even when the Flames are legitimately bad and have a true shot at a lottery pick they still screw it up. if the Avs don't match then that means Calgary has no 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick in this year's draft. and to pay a guy 6.5m who hasn't even cracked 20 goals, ridiculous

i guess i'll just resign myself to more years of Flames mediocrity until ownership gets their heads out of their asses and accepts that this franchise needs a proper rebuild with someone competent in charge

- The Flames are unlikely to receive a lottery pic as is. Adding a true top centre and kipper makes that even less likely. It's a calculated move / risk

- Our picks this year are irrelevant when they're *directly* being swapped for a proven commodity those picks only have a remote chance of turning into

- Looking at and judging O'Reilly based on his goal totals is absurd. He's 22, has 3 pro seasons under his belt, put up 50+ points last year, was 54% on faceoffs, and lead the league in take-aways

- Your last sentence cries about a rebuild. Adding one of the best young defensive centres in the NHL (something proven, not left to chance like a draft pick) IS re-building.

[TurnedTheCorner]

That's exactly right Table 5. It's an overpayment practically by definition.

[Magnum PEI]

[nfotiu]

I wasn't really following O'Reilly in the off season, and haven't read through this whole thread, so sorry if it was covered.

It used to be that if an rfa wasn't signed by dec. 1, they were not allowed to play the season. Is that not the case any more? Was there a different deadline due to the lockout? When is/was that deadline?

[TurnedTheCorner]

Originally Posted by Captain_Obvious

- The Flames are unlikely to receive a lottery pic as is.

Whoa whoa whoa. Are you saying as of right now, the Flames are likely to make the playoffs?

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Zarley

Without O'Reilly, the Flames are likely to finish with a pick of 10th-16th this year. The chances of getting a prospect of his calibre at that stage are slim to none.

Remember, the guy is only 22. I would take a young player who has shown he can play in the NHL over a pick any day.

In fairness, I don't know much about O'Reilly, and if he proves to have top line (or even strong second line) center who re-ups with the Flames for fair value, then this is a good move.

What concerns me more is what this means for where the organization is heading, i.e., flogging the same mules for as long as possible. This move suggests to me the Flames will not be renting out Iginla nor trading any other assets at the deadline, leaving the without a top round pick in this draft. It also suggests to me they will be less able to sign top free agents like Getzlaf in the off season due to salary cap constraints (assuming Getzlaf is available).

What are the odds out of 10 that O'Reilly can be a competent NHL first line center? Genuinely curious since I've never really watched the guy.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by pylon

107 points, in 236 career games.

What am I missing here?

22 years old....just turned.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by jg13

IF ROR was available in this years draft where would you have him ranked?

Top 3 without a doubt so people complaining we potentially gave up a top 5 pick for this offer.. terrible argument.

Except that he doesn't come with that cheap entry level contract you need from your draft picks to keep the cap down.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

No what you are saying makes no sense. Your point about him not getting 6.5 million from anyone is wrong, if the Flames wanted to retain his rights and he did not want to sign a long term deal they would HAVE TO PAY HIM 6.5 MILLION DOLLARS. There is no holdout option for the guy, he either gets a 6.5 million dollar offer sheet and then signs it or he is a unrestricted free agent. It is pretty basic.

1) The Flames need to qualify him at 6.5 million
2) If the Flames do not qualify him at 6.5 million he becomes a free agent
3) The Flames can sign him to a multi-year contract before the end of the current contract for less.

My point is, why would ROR pick number 3. He knows that at the end of his contract one of two things happens:

1) The Flames sign him for 6.5 million a year
2) He becomes a UFA

In what world does he sign for less? The only reason is the one opendoor gave, which is security. This has nothing to do with a holdout, the Flames have to offer him 6.5 million dollars to retain his services. The Flames do not have a tradeable asset at any value, they have a 6.5 million dollar tradeable asset. The only way the Flames can retain his services is to either qualifying him or sign him long term before the contract is up.

If the guy did sign long term for security it would be for a hell of a lot longer than 4 years. The Flames would be looking at something like a 8 year 40 million plus contract.

So your argument is the ROR is all about the money.

You are saying he won't sign a long term deal at $5M with Calgary, but will with another team?

Again, why would this matter?

So you're saying ROR will refuse to take anything less than $6.5M so that he can hit free agency and then sign long term at $5M with another team?

Why wouldn't he do that with the Flames?

Why wouldn't he do that with a contending team if the Flames choose to trade him?

I don't understand your reasoning as to why he MUST hold out to get more money. He won't be getting $6.5M regardless. Everyone knows that.

You are painting him out to be a villain who is only out to screw over teams. When was the last time this happened in the NHL?

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I wasn't really following O'Reilly in the off season, and haven't read through this whole thread, so sorry if it was covered.

It used to be that if an rfa wasn't signed by dec. 1, they were not allowed to play the season. Is that not the case any more? Was there a different deadline due to the lockout? When is/was that deadline?

I answered my own question. No deadline this year.

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2013/1/1...ted-free-agent

[Stay Golden]

Its interesting that the Flames are in COL today with this offer sheet being served just hours ago.
I have a funny feeling that perhaps JMO the Flames and Avs have worked this all out with each other and this could be a clever way for COL to save face with their fans by accepting the picks.

Next Thurday can't arrive soon enough.

[Rubicant]

I really like o'reilly as a 2nd line centre so it is a nice add for the future in that regard. I sincerely hope that we don't give up a future first line centre in that 1st rounder though.

Ownership and management clearly have more faith in this years team than I do.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Why didn't Parise ask for $14M in free agency?

Just because you qualify a player doesn't mean he'll sign, either. The Avs qualified ROR and he still didn't sign.

The qualifying offer value means nothing. The player can assign any arbitrary value they want to determine how much they will sign for, just as ROR did with the Avalanche. What if ROR asks for $10M in 2 years. Woe is us. What will we do? He's the one who has to sign on the dotted line in the end.

What if Brodie asks for $5M? Will he get it?

The qualifying amount is absolutely meaningless. It's simply a number used to retain RFAs longer so you can negotiate with them more.

The Flames will have an entire year to negotiate with ROR.

I really am not trying to be a dick, but I am not sure you understand what a qualifying offer is.

A qualifying offer is a contract offer, the Flames would be contractually bound to pay ROR 6.5 million dollars a year if they made a qualifying offer and he accepted. The only way they would not be bound to pay him that would be if ROR and his agent rejected the 6.5 million offer and wanted more money, completely misread the market and ended up signing for less. It is not some sort of negotiating ploy, it is a contract offer from the Flames to ROR to retain his rights. Not sure what world we are living in where ROR is offered 6.5 million a year and turns it down to negotiate a lower salary.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by getbak

These sorts of things are "who's going to blink first" scenarios. The Avs hoped that if they waited long enough, he'd blink first and settle for what they were offering. O'Reilly was hoping the opposite would be true. He also had the possiblity of receiving an Offer Sheet to sit back on as well.

Now, the Avs have two choices, they either match or lose the player. What has happened between the teams over the last year of negotiation is out the window now.

This is the 8th Offer Sheet that's been signed since the last lockout. Of the previous 7, only Penner's offer from the Oilers was not matched.

That's why people assume the Avs will match. History has shown that teams match them.

How many of the teams in question with the option to match had serious money issues at the time? Weber in Nashville is the only one that comes to mind, and he is obviously on a level of his own so the Preds had to bite the bullet there.

I'm not discounting the possibility that the Avs match, but given where the Flames are in the standings and Colorado's financial situation I think it would be a huge mistake for them to do so. That pick could easily turn into a very good player who will be playing out his ELC for peanuts. To me this seems like a more attractive option for a pennypinching team than paying $5 million (and $6.5 million next year) for O'Reilly when you already have Duchene and Stastny.

[Captain_Obvious]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I don't see this as a good thing at all. The guy reminds me of Langkow, and I don't mean that in a good way. Sure, some are going to jump all over me and say how awesome Langkow was and how we would be lucky to have a guy turn into someone like him..... Well you know how everyone has been saying that we haven't had a top line center in 20 years.... it's going to be even longer. O'Reilly is going to be a really really good second line center who's going to be forced into a top line role and probably not do that well with it. With the Av's he was behind Stastny, Duchene and playing with some decent others, he wasn't on the top line because they didn't see him as a top line center. If the Avs thought he was a top line center, theyw ould have traded Stastny and kept O'Reilly....they didn't.

I have such a bad feeling that this is going to turn into the Flames giving up a potential franchise player for a second line forward that's being over hyped.

We have the worst collection of centres in the NHL, including our prospect pool.

So because we have the pipe dream of wanting a No. 1 centre, we should turn down the shot at getting one of the best young defensive centres in the game because he's not Crosby or Thornton?

Really odd logic.

Either a move makes you better, or it doesn't. Not making any moves because it doesn't seem like the best possible move is really odd and terrible logic.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Actually, this is why I think Colorado won't match and Feaster's offer is brilliant:

I would counter with:

1) The Avs and O'Reilly have already seriously deteriorated their relationship.

If he didn't want to return to Colorado he doesn't sign an offer sheet opening up that possibility.

2) O'Reilly has already demonstrated to them that he will hold out

Once signed he can't hold out. If he does he doesn't get paid and is out of the NHL until his contract expires and his rights STILL belong to the Avs.

3) If they match, they have to believe that there is a huge risk that they go through this again in 100 games

If he lives up to the contract then they can sign him for similar money without much issue or even trade him when his value is high. He won't have a NTC. If not they can try to negotiate a lower rate and indeed move him.

My guess....the Avs match and if they are at all concerned about money they look to move Stastny or Johnson. With O'reilly they'd have 21 players signed for $53 mil next year. They have plenty of room to work with. And most importantly they are not going to lose a young guy to offer sheet to a division rival (soon to be conference rival).

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

i'm really sick of this win now mentality. even when the Flames are legitimately bad and have a true shot at a lottery pick they still screw it up. if the Avs don't match then that means Calgary has no 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick in this year's draft. and to pay a guy 6.5m who hasn't even cracked 20 goals, ridiculous

i guess i'll just resign myself to more years of Flames mediocrity until ownership gets their heads out of their asses and accepts that this franchise needs a proper rebuild with someone competent in charge

Picking up a 21 year old, still far from entering his prime years as win now is a bit odd.