2012-2013 Toronto Blue Jays Off Season Thread

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Way too early to come to that conclusion. The Jays still have a decent prospect pool. Maybe AA is going for it now as well as as for 5-10 years down the road? It doesn't have to be 'going for it now' and screw the future.

I don't know what to say... If you don't think that trading two of your top three prospects for a 38 year old starter isn't going for it now I'm not winning you over anyhow. It's not a total FU to the future but it's clearly now over future.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Using ERA? Come on...

No one thinks he's a bad pitcher. In fact, everybody thinks he's a good one. The reason people say he spiked last year is because he did. He was already good, last year he was great. That's not to say he won't be great again, but he doesn't have the track record of a guy who has been a Cy Young contender for years, which means he should have less value.

Last 3 years of WAR... 3.4, 3.1, 5.6
Last 3 years of SO.... 104, 136, 230
Last 3 years of RAA... 20, 15, 34

And his age is relevant because while he's a knuckler and it's mitigated a little because an average pitcher would have already retired, pro athletes do have finite careers, and at 38 he's closer to the end of his. It's not saying he won't be valuable next year or for 1 or 3 or maybe even 5 more - it's just saying that on the trade market, he shouldn't bring the same return as a 28 year old ace because there's a good likelihood that in the next 1-3 years, he will be gone.

There's a reason that this is the reaction to the last trade rumor:

Ken RosenthalVerified ‏@Ken_Rosenthal Can't judge reported proposals for #Mets' Dickey until deal complete. At first glance, D'Arnaud-Syndergaard seems overpay by #BlueJays . . .

Buster OlneyVerified ‏@Buster_ESPN
Evaluators around MLB are beyond shocked TOR is talking about trading Travis d'Arnaud for a player with one year on his contract, Dickey.

MLB Trade Rumors
"The broad perception in the industry is that if the Mets pull off the deal, it's an incredible trade for them."

Because there are details still to come, but right now this deal looks like the Jays dropped the soap.

And all the talk of prospects not all panning out so they should be currency is beyond stupid... every player was a prospect at one point, and for every trade where guys busted there are two where a team didn't win anything, or worse, a guy or two turned into an amazing MLB all-star for 15 years, and these two prospects are the Jays best with the highest likelihood of making it. I could name 15 trades where rental/short term player deals backfired badly. If you're using that rationale not get worked up about the deal fair enough, but this is not good value for the Jays. It's the kind of move that really hammers home "3 year window" for the Jays instead of, "We're headed back into a decade of contention".

It'll be a great year to watch, and I'll enjoy it as much as any of you, but you're deluding yourselves if you think this is good value. Catching prospects are worth a ton, and D'Arnaud is the best in baseball right now. Adding in another blue chipper is a huge overpayment, that the Jays don't need to make right now.

The Buster Olney tweet is just the worst. I get nothing from that.

The Jays don't need to make right now? I disagree. I think they're still the 3rd best team in the AFC East if the season started today and this is the type of trade that could make that type of impact. There's really not many alternatives out there. We also need to account for the market price on starting pitching. Look at the deals we've seen over the last two seasons and even this offseason. Let's also account for how much a player like this would cost in terms of Salary. I think it's more then a fair argument to say that a lot of the value a team might give up only having 3-5 years of Dickey is made up by the fact that you get him at a very discounted rate for the type of pitcher he can be. Anyone else you're looking at 5 years plus +20 million average. Bringing on Dickey still alows the Jays to even add more to their team and they get the value of 5 million this season owed to Dickey


These 28 year old constant CY Young contenders come along once in a blue moon. I also don't think this move means the Jays have completely sold the farm. There's still a ton of pitching depth in this organization, and you still have 3 years to continue to draft song and replenish your system. That's the luxury of not being going for it in a "1 year or bust". The Jays have given themselves enough time to replenish the farm so that they'll have reinforcements by then.

[jschick88]

Here we go

Sources: #Mets, #BlueJays have agreement in principle on Dickey trade. Window open for Jays to extend Dickey, which would complete deal.

Negotiating window for Dickey extension is 72 hours, expiring Tuesday at 2 pm ET. #Mets #BlueJays

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

[TitovFTW]

A post from jschick88, I knew it was a Dickey Update!

[Jiggy_12]

Lol...here comes 3 more days of refreshing twitter

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

The Buster Olney tweet is just the worst. I get nothing from that.

The Jays don't need to make right now? I disagree. I think they're still the 3rd best team in the AFC East if the season started today and this is the type of trade that could make that type of impact. There's really not many alternatives out there. We also need to account for the market price on starting pitching. Look at the deals we've seen over the last two seasons and even this offseason. Let's also account for how much a player like this would cost in terms of Salary. I think it's more then a fair argument to say that a lot of the value a team might give up only having 3-5 years of Dickey is made up by the fact that you get him at a very discounted rate for the type of pitcher he can be. Anyone else you're looking at 5 years plus +20 million average. Bringing on Dickey still alows the Jays to even add more to their team and they get the value of 5 million this season owed to Dickey


These 28 year old constant CY Young contenders come along once in a blue moon. I also don't think this move means the Jays have completely sold the farm. There's still a ton of pitching depth in this organization, and you still have 3 years to continue to draft song and replenish your system. That's the luxury of not being going for it in a "1 year or bust". The Jays have given themselves enough time to replenish the farm so that they'll have reinforcements by then.

I don't think you know where the Jays are at in the AL East right now any more than I do. Claiming they need Dickey to push them over the top at any cost when we haven't even seen how they play together is nothing more than guesswork. The team they have could add Marcum for nothing and win the AL East for all we know.

Also, the ability of teams to restock their teams farms quickly with financial resources is gone in the new system. It's going to be more similar to the NHL where bad management is rewarded with so many good prospects - there are firm caps on international free agents and the draft. The Jays can take the approach they did this year and sign a few higher profile guys at the expense of quantity but they aren't going to be able to re-stock the system the way teams burning through prospects have in the past.

Last, will Dickey take 13 a year from the Jays that he would have taken in NY who gave him his shot to start and where taxes are lower? I dunno. Either way, the Mets aren't trading 3 years of Dickey, they're trading 1. If the Jays negotiate an extension, they pay Dickey for that, not the Mets unless they want to sign and trade. Gives them a few extra million to spend this year, some of which they are apparently sending to the Mets to pay John Buck's salary in the deal.

[TitovFTW]

We know how AA works though. He's the last GM who's going to low ball and play games with Dickey. He knew what it was going to take to sign him and I bet it happens really quickly.

[VERVE]

The question is could the Jays have a chance to win it all with their current rotation -Dickeyless. Alot of "experts" think their odds are about 12:1 which is significant enough gain to be in the area. Their chances improve with having Dickey.

The short term gain to win it all is obviously "yes, take Dickey". The long term gain is really a loss if you trade away your best prospect and the best catcher in all of baseball minor league (and don't win the WS). Though Travis D'Arnaud is a prospect and like most, it is a slight gamble of the unknown when advancing to MLB. However, given all is consistent numbers as a blue chip prospect, the scouts and experts rave about him as being extremely confident and a solid demeanor while not "fazed by his surroundings" (mmm...Mike Piazza-like?).

“For me, he’s the best catching prospect in baseball,” a scouting coordinator of a team not involved in the trade said of d’Arnaud. “He’s made lots of strides offensively. He’s one of those guys who a few years ago you would have said that he could be really good if he put it all together. Well, he’s put it all together and is really good. He’s the rare catcher who can hit in the middle of the lineup.”

“I hated to lose him,” said Marti Wolever, Philadelphia’s scouting director. “He can be the centerpiece of an organization for a long time. ...But I hope we figure out a way to get him out (back to the Phillies).” -Arangure, The New York Times, Dec 15, 2012

The Jays' window of opportunity to win is within the next 2-4 years given the ages and sucessions of their players. If Dickey was guaranteed the only player that would be moved in the 2013 season in MLB, then take Dickey. He does improve your chances. However, there are other possible trade scenarios out there and with pitchers that can fullfill the role in the rotation just as well. There will be sellers out there and the Jays should be patient.

They have an entire 2013 season to deal for an ace if they approach it with a "wait and see" attitude (and who knows) they might not have to give up an elite prospect for one. With that, I take my chances with our current rotation and hang on to Travis D'arnaud and gauge the team's progress and then make a trade for a pitcher if need be. If the Jays rotation is solid from 1-2-3, then we might not need another ace and still have TDA.

Not sure why the rush to sign Dickey is, slow it down and take a look at the 2013 season.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I don't think you know where the Jays are at in the AL East right now any more than I do. Claiming they need Dickey to push them over the top at any cost when we haven't even seen how they play together is nothing more than guesswork. The team they have could add Marcum for nothing and win the AL East for all we know.

Also, the ability of teams to restock their teams farms quickly with financial resources is gone in the new system. It's going to be more similar to the NHL where bad management is rewarded with so many good prospects - there are firm caps on international free agents and the draft. The Jays can take the approach they did this year and sign a few higher profile guys at the expense of quantity but they aren't going to be able to re-stock the system the way teams burning through prospects have in the past.

Also, will Dickey take 13 a year from the Jays that he would have taken in NY who gave him his shot to start and taxes are lower? I dunno. Either way, the Mets aren't trading 3 years of Dickey, they're trading 1. If the Jays negotiate an extension, they pay Dickey for that, not the Mets unless they want to sign and trade. Gives them a few extra million to spend this year, some of which they are apparently sending to the Mets to pay John Buck's salary in the deal.

The Jays could have it all blow up next season and everyone flame out or at least very key players. But that's not how you build a team. You have to alook at your team and see where you think they are and what would you put you into that next level. I tend to think that's how the Jays view this. You build your team up the best you can to believe you've given them the best talent to achieve your goals. The rest are things you just can't measure or trade for or avoid.

I also think it's a great job by the Jays to pay money to give Buck to the Mets instead of a prospect. Great job by ownership.

Mets are only trading 1 year and kudos to them on having a pitcher of this talent to be able to trade. I think it's a great trade for the Mets and a really good trade for the Blue Jays.

The Jays sure did know how to play the system of the old draft rules. I think even under the new ones, 3 seasons is suffice enough time for a team that puts that much money into scouting. And the Jays looted the system last year and the draft process hasn't changed from last year.

And as much risk as we've discussed about Dickey having. There was talk this offseason about D'Arnaud might having to become a DH. This is a catcher coming off knee surgery. I don't see how that's not equal to the risk of Dickey

[Cheese]

The Flames traded an up and coming Brett Hull for a shot at a Stanley Cup....they were successful. Would you rather have that trade back in the hopes Hull gives you Cups later on or take what appears to be the right opportunity to win. Its a tough call for many GMs Im sure.
Id do that deal over every time.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by VERVE

The question is could the Jays have a chance to win it all with their current rotation -Dickeyless. Alot of "experts" think their odds are about 12:1 which is significant enough gain to be in the area. Their chances improve with having Dickey.

The short term gain to win it all is obviously "yes, take Dickey". The long term gain is really a loss if you trade away your best prospect and the best catcher in all of baseball minor league (and don't win the WS). Though Travis D'Arnaud is a prospect and like most, it is a slight gamble of the unknown when advancing to MLB. However, given all is consistent numbers as a blue chip prospect, the scouts and experts rave about him as being extremely confident and a solid demeanor while not "fazed by his surroundings" (mmm...Mike Piazza-like?).

“For me, he’s the best catching prospect in baseball,” a scouting coordinator of a team not involved in the trade said of d’Arnaud. “He’s made lots of strides offensively. He’s one of those guys who a few years ago you would have said that he could be really good if he put it all together. Well, he’s put it all together and is really good. He’s the rare catcher who can hit in the middle of the lineup.”

“I hated to lose him,” said Marti Wolever, Philadelphia’s scouting director. “He can be the centerpiece of an organization for a long time. ...But I hope we figure out a way to get him out (back to the Phillies).” -Arangure, The New York Times, Dec 15, 2012

The Jays' window of opportunity to win is within the next 2-4 years given the ages and sucessions of their players. If Dickey was guaranteed the only player that would be moved in the 2013 season in MLB, then take Dickey. He does improve your chances. However, there are other possible trade scenarios out there and with pitchers that can fullfill the role in the rotation just as well. There will be sellers out there and the Jays should be patient.

They have an entire 2013 season to deal for an ace if they approach it with a "wait and see" attitude (and who knows) they might not have to give up an elite prospect for one. With that, I take my chances with our current rotation and hang on to Travis D'arnaud and gauge the team's progress and then make a trade for a pitcher if need be. If the Jays rotation is solid from 1-2-3, then we might not need another ace and still have TDA.

Not sure why the rush to sign Dickey is, slow it down and take a look at the 2013 season.

Great post and logical thinking. R.A Dickey and the Mets don't wait on the Jays to decide this. And players of his caliber are not available often. Clearly I think the Jays have asked themselves if they think their 1-2-3 right now is great and they don't.

There really is little or no trade movement in MLB during the first half of the season. You lose a ton of value for a pitcher if you get him at the trade deadline. I don't see many comparable arms to Dickey being available. And if the Jays get off to a rough start, you're in a huge hole.

Great post though and reminded me why I really reallly like Travis D'Arnaud.

[secol]

i also agree it's overpay.....TDA and lesser prospect should be enough, adding in noah is too much

[Matty81]

Personally I think the best franchises in sport balance current season needs with long term ones.

The ones that grunt and try to push it over the line at all costs in the short term ultimately end up being one season wonders or ultimately forgotten. I know this is just one trade but I still don't like how short sighted it is. And what's worse, I think they are overpaying on value, which you never ever do unless you absolutely totally have to.

No matter how much Stoeten and the rest of the fanboys love giggling about their Dickey jokes and defending AA at all costs, there's a reason most of the top baseball journalists are saying that the Jays are getting butt-raped here.

[TitovFTW]

I really like this debate though guys. Matty 81 and others. Let's take a step back though and find the humor in us actually discussing this about the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012. Could you imagine last offseason or even a few months ago, telling someone this is the type of discussion we'd be having about this team?!? You'd be called insane and locked up. I saw this offseason playing out as more prospect porn and discussing how Gavin Floyd is going to have a huge year as the Jays only offseason acquisition. Some people seem to be strongly opinionated against this, but we should all admit this is a much more fun conversation to have.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

I really like this debate though guys. Matty 81 and others. Let's take a step back though and find the humor in us actually discussing this about the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012. Could you imagine last offseason or even a few months ago, telling someone this is the type of discussion we'd be having about this team?!? You'd be called insane and locked up. I saw this offseason playing out as more prospect porn and discussing how Gavin Floyd is going to have a huge year as the Jays only offseason acquisition. Some people seem to be strongly opinionated against this, but we should all admit this is a much more fun conversation to have.

Yep agreed, and it will be one hell of a year one way or another.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Personally I think the best franchises in sport balance current season needs with long term ones.

The ones that grunt and try to push it over the line at all costs in the short term ultimately end up in shambles. You might get one season of glory if you're lucky. I know this is just one trade but I still don't like how short sighted it is. And what's worse, I think they are overpaying on value, which you never ever do unless you absolutely totally have to.

No matter how much Stoeten and the rest of the fanboys love giggling about their Dickey jokes and defending AA at all costs, there's a reason most of the top baseball journalists are saying that the Jays are getting butt-raped here.

Buster Olney is not a top baseball journalist. I'd actually say the reaction from the MLB world has been a great job by the Mets but a really good trade for the Jays. Bloggers of other teams actually worth listening to, the mainstream baseball media is just awful.

Edit: Rosenthal is awesome though. And I look forward to actually finally seeing what this trade is so we can actually discuss this in more depth.

[jschick88]

If R.A. Dickey agrees to a contract extension, he will be a Toronto Blue Jay.

The Jays and New York Mets have an agreement in principle on a Dickey trade, but the deal is contingent on the right-hander signing an extension with Toronto, according to major-league sources.

The two clubs opened a 72-hour negotiating window on Saturday, and the window expires at 2 p.m. on Tuesday, sources said.

It is also not known whether the deal would collapse if Dickey declined to sign an extension, or if the teams would agree to a different exchange of players.

The trade, according to the New York Post, would send Dickey, catcher Josh Thole and a non-elite prospect to the Jays, with the Mets receiving catcher Travis D’Arnaud, right-hander Noah Syndergaard, catcher John Buck and another non-elite prospect.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/t...e-trade-121412

[Caged Great]

I don't mind trading prospects, especially pitchers and catchers because

A) we have a dozen or so good pitching prospects so losing one more, despite him being arguably the best of the bunch isn't going to hurt much. Especially when you consider that we've got Romero, Buehrle, Morrow and possibly Dickey for the next 3 years, so it's not like we've got a ton of spots in the rotation anyway until then (even less if we keep JJ)

B) TDA doesn't have the bat to be a decent 1B or DH. I think catcher is the least important position of all to get offensive production from, especially when finding someone who's bat can translate to 1B/DH is nearly impossible. Resource wise, it would make sense to find an average catcher (JPA) and spend a few bucks on an above average bat elsewhere. It'll be cheaper to do that in the long run anyway.

The attrition rate of baseball prospects is very high. One person mentioned that the 3 times that Cliff Lee was traded, in total for 11 different decent above average prospects (in the same range as TDA + Snydergaard) a total of 0 have developed into anything worth having.

Having a bird in hand (dickey) is likely going to be better in the long run than 2 in the bush (TDA + Snydergaard).

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

Buster Olney is not a top baseball journalist. I'd actually say the reaction from the MLB world has been a great job by the Mets but a really good trade for the Jays. Bloggers of other teams actually worth listening to, the mainstream baseball media is just awful.

Edit: Rosenthal is awesome though. And I look forward to actually finally seeing what this trade is so we can actually discuss this in more depth.

I guess that's subjective... he's certainly been the 2nd most plugged in in the past:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...porters-ranked

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

And I look forward to actually finally seeing what this trade is so we can actually discuss this in more depth.

This is a good point, we are still unclear as to who is being included. I've seen Parnell's name come up a few times as possibly being included, which could give us some help in the 'pen.

I will always be uncomfortable giving up top-end prospects, but I can live with it if it gives us a chance at making a deep run.