2012-2013 Toronto Blue Jays Off Season Thread

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

What are the Blue Jays plans for Gose? He doesn't really have a spot, and there were rumors he'd go to Shea with D'Arnaud for Dickey, but those seem to have gone away.

Just from what i can infer from reading different articles, AA has no intention of dealing him at any cost...so im guessing he is in the long range plans as much as anyone.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just from what i can infer from reading different articles, AA has no intention of dealing him at any cost...so im guessing he is in the long range plans as much as anyone.

So a full year at AAA?

[fundmark19]

I am not a fan of this trade. Would you guys be happy about trading your entire prospect pool for Tim wakefield? Knuckleballers are great and all but they normally have high eras so hopefully your bat support is there. I feel Dickey is a one year wonder and is never going to put up 20 wins again

[d_phaneuf]

maybe not full year but barring an injury I would be surprised if he didn't at least start the year there, maybe call up later in the summer or if there is an injury

with AAA no longer being in LV, it's a much better chance to evaluate the hitting of their prospects

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

The pitcher/player needs to have been on your team the entire season to get the compensation. You could not trade for someone at any part of the year or even before free agency ( I remember AA fleeced that system a few years ago)

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/ey...n-system-works

The compensation would also only be given if the team gave him a qualifying offer of at least 13 million or so, which in this case, likely wouldn't be an issue.

[The Big Chill]

I think Gose would be about 6th on the depth chart for outfielders, behind Bautista, Cabrera, Rasmus, Davis, and Bonaficiao. It would seem likely that he plays the year in Buffalo unless there are injuries or someone really struggles.

[SuperMatt18]

Not a fan of the trade.

Dickey is a good pitcher, good story, but a lot of risk in a 38 year old knuckleballer. Trading the best catching prospect in the majors doesn't seem worth it

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

So a full year at AAA?

Yup. Talked about him wanting to have a full season down there, still has a lot to improve on with his bat. You give him a full season there and have 6 years of control over him then if Rasmus struggles this season. And he's also a big trading chip if the Jays need to make a splash at the deadline.

[TitovFTW]

Travis D'Arnaud does not come without a of risk either. A catcher coming off knee surgery, one has had a few injuries pile up the last few seasons. Who knows how long he can even play the catching position? Just as much risk involved that he never becomes anything and is just a league average catcher. It's a possibility we sit here 5 seasons from now with Travis D'Arnaud being just an above average MLB catcher and the Jays still just an average team that people will complain wasted having years of elite talent and not going for it.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

Travis D'Arnaud does not come without a of risk either. A catcher coming off knee surgery, one has had a few injuries pile up the last few seasons. Who knows how long he can even play the catching position? Just as much risk involved that he never becomes anything and is just a league average catcher. It's a possibility we sit here 5 seasons from now with Travis D'Arnaud being just an above average MLB catcher and the Jays still just an average team that people will complain wasted having years of elite talent and not going for it.

If we look back and say that a knuckleballer with an outlier year was the reason we didn't win it all, I'll eat my hat.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by nik-

If we look back and say that a knuckleballer with an outlier year was the reason we didn't win it all, I'll eat my hat.

it wasn't that much of an outlier year though

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ne-great-year/

61 pitchers threw at least 350 innings between 2010 and 2011. During those two years, Dickey posted an ERA- of 81, meaning that he prevented runs at a rate 19 percent better than the league average. We’re using ERA- for Dickey because knuckleballers have a long exhibited history of being an exception to FIP, by the way. That put him squarely between Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and ahead of guys like Hiroki Kuroda, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, and Mat Latos. Not bad company.

[nik-]

Yeah, I just don't agree. To me a season that has an 80% jump in strikeouts is an outlier.

[Jiggy_12]

Originally Posted by nik-

Yeah, I just don't agree. To me a season that has an 80% jump in strikeouts is an outlier.

What about all the other statistics over the course of the 3 years which are fairly similar?

[nik-]

I'm not saying he's garbage, I'm saying he's not the guy you make a big splash for.

[TitovFTW]

The arguments against Dickey seem to be so broad, and nothing to do with the specific player. He's put in a box because of age and style of delivery. I think it doesn't do the pitcher justice to speak in such generalities and not actually look deeper into his last 3 season statistically. Something I was guilty of myself at the beginning of the offseason

Frangraphs had an excellent piece up 6 days ago with the headline "Can R.A Dickey Repeat?"

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...dickey-repeat/

At the same time, though, his ability to throw the knuckleball should actually offset his old age. Most pitchers who throw the knuckleball typically age very well, pitching well into their 40s. With Dickey, age may not be something to worry about. Most knuckleball pitchers performed quite well during their age-38 seasons.

The biggest question facing Dickey is whether he can continue to display the gains he saw on his knuckleball last year. Outside of his age, there was nothing that really screamed “fluke” about his performance. Dickey had a 25.1 pitch value on the knuckleball, easily the best figure of his career. Players made less contact against him, and whiffed much more frequently. Expecting him to win another Cy Young would be asking a lot, but it does seem like he made strides last year.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by nik-

I'm not saying he's garbage, I'm saying he's not the guy you make a big splash for.

Which is fair. I don't want to come off as trying to challenge Mike Wilner for outright "Homerism" by seeming like I'm defending the Jays blindly, but one has to wonder who else is out there. When I think of the package the Jays are giving up, I think a big catch and think they could go after an elite 25-26 top of the rotation arm. I'm just not sure there's really anyone out there who the Jays could get right now. #1-#2 Starting Pitchers are at an all-time premium.

[TitovFTW]

For the record, I think the Jays are overpaying. Whether that's desperation or the market asking price, it is a huge price to pay. I also don't think R.A Dickey is a sure thing, but only a small number of pitchers are. I think there's a middle ground for what the reaction to this trade should be for Blue Jays fans. It could be an over payement, but the Jays are getting back a really good pitcher. The Jays are getting a really good pitcher, but the Jays are giving up a lot of really good young talent. I think most fans fall close to the middle

[Matty81]

Using ERA? Come on...

No one thinks he's a bad pitcher. In fact, everybody thinks he's a good one. The reason people say he spiked last year is because he did. He was already good, last year he was great. That's not to say he won't be great again, but he doesn't have the track record of a guy who has been a Cy Young contender for years, which means he should have less value.

Last 3 years of WAR... 3.4, 3.1, 5.6
Last 3 years of SO.... 104, 136, 230
Last 3 years of RAA... 20, 15, 34

And his age is relevant because while he's a knuckler and it's mitigated a little because an average pitcher would have already retired, pro athletes do have finite careers, and at 38 he's closer to the end of his. It's not saying he won't be valuable next year or for 1 or 3 or maybe even 5 more - it's just saying that on the trade market, he shouldn't bring the same return as a 28 year old ace because there's a good likelihood that in the next 1-3 years, he will be gone.

There's a reason that this is the reaction to the last trade rumor:

Ken RosenthalVerified ‏@Ken_Rosenthal Can't judge reported proposals for #Mets' Dickey until deal complete. At first glance, D'Arnaud-Syndergaard seems overpay by #BlueJays . . .

Buster OlneyVerified ‏@Buster_ESPN
Evaluators around MLB are beyond shocked TOR is talking about trading Travis d'Arnaud for a player with one year on his contract, Dickey.

MLB Trade Rumors (edit this is Olney)
"The broad perception in the industry is that if the Mets pull off the deal, it's an incredible trade for them."

Because there are details still to come, but right now this deal looks like the Jays dropped the soap.

And all the talk of prospects not all panning out so they should be currency is beyond stupid... every player was a prospect at one point, and for every trade where guys busted there are two where a team didn't win anything, or worse, a guy or two turned into an amazing MLB all-star for 15 years, and these two prospects are the Jays best with the highest likelihood of making it. I could name 15 trades where rental/short term player deals backfired badly. If you're using that rationale not get worked up about the deal fair enough, but this is not good value for the Jays. It's the kind of move that really hammers home "3 year window" for the Jays instead of, "We're headed back into a decade of contention".

It'll be a great year to watch, and I'll enjoy it as much as any of you, but you're deluding yourselves if you think this is good value. Catching prospects are worth a ton, and D'Arnaud is the best in baseball right now. Adding in another blue chipper is a huge overpayment, that the Jays don't need to make right now.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

The more I think about the potential deal, the more I like it. I think AA realizes that the Jays have an opportunity to not only make the playoffs, but take the AL East. And if they have the rotation that it looks like they will start the season with, that's a pretty solid one to take to the playoffs and take your chances with. And I'm not a huge fan of giving up highly touted prospects, but there is a chance these prospects don't hit their ceilings, or are set back from injuries, etc.....lots of variables. There is no guarantee they turn into studs or franchise players.

So I guess I'm just tired of seeing the Jays miss the playoffs year after year after year, but I'm glad AA is going for it now. There's a window, and he's taking a gamble. Can't fault him for that. It will be fun to watch, the dome should be full, and we should see some playoff ball. Looking forward to it.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Matty81

It's the kind of move that really hammers home "3 year window" for the Jays instead of, "We're headed back into a decade of contention".

Way too early to come to that conclusion. The Jays still have a decent prospect pool. Maybe AA is going for it now as well as as for 5-10 years down the road? It doesn't have to be 'going for it now' and screw the future.