Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[Rerun]

Too close to call. If McGuinty and Trudeau hadn't gotten all the bad press recently I would have called Locke for the win. However now that Crockatt has opened up her mouth and proved to be an idiot.... who knows.

Generally in bi-elections where the balance of power isn't threatened, the opposition parties have the advantage... primarily because its easier for them to get out the vote and supporters for the party in power tend to stay home.

In some ways I'm almost rooting for the NDP or Green party to win.... or at least anybody but Locke. Not that Locke isn't a good man. He is. In fact I wish he were the CPC candidate. I just can't stomach the Liberal party winning because a win would in some ways validate Justin Trudeau's leadership candidacy.

Oh wait.... I want Trudeau to win....

I've changed my mind! Go Locke!!!! Locke for the win!!! Vote Locke today!!!

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Too close to call. If McGuinty and Trudeau hadn't gotten all the bad press recently I would have called Turner for the win. However now that Crockatt has opened up her mouth and proved to be an idiot.... who knows.

Generally in bi-elections where the balance of power isn't threatened, the opposition parties have the advantage... primarily because its easier for them to get out the vote and supporters for the party in power tend to stay home.

In some ways I'm almost rooting for the NDP or Green party to win.... or at least anybody but Turner. Not that Turner isn't a good man. He is. In fact I wish he were the CPC candidate. I just can't stomach the Liberal party winning because a win would in some ways validate Justin Trudeau's leadership candidacy.

Oh wait.... I want Trudeau to win....

I've changed my mind! Go Turner!!!! Turner for the win!!! Vote Turner today!!!

Turner is the Green Party candidate, FYI.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Turner is the Green Party candidate, FYI.

Oh crap... I meant Locke... thanks.

[Bigtime]

This is a crazy political day. The by-elections, Calgary council budget meeting today, Rob Ford just got the boot as the mayor of Toronto, and Mark Carney is going to be the Bank of England Governor.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Mark Carney is going to be the Bank of England Governor.

That's a pretty big blow to Canada.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

This is a crazy political day. The by-elections, Calgary council budget meeting today, Rob Ford just got the boot as the mayor of Toronto, and Mark Carney is going to be the Bank of England Governor.

Wow

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

My prediction is there is some last minute mean reversion. The CPC GOTV operation is also way underrated.

Crockatt: 39%
Locke: 32%
Turner: 24%
Meades: 5%

[Bigtime]

I'm not even going to try and guess percentages, but I'll throw it out there that Turner wins. I know this is flying in the face of the polling and other factors, but it's what I want so I'll go with it.

I think it will be bloody close though if I'm right.

[Slava]

[QUOTE=Iowa_Flames_Fan;3949563 The CPC GOTV operation is also way underrated.

Sincerely,

Ric McIver
[/QUOTE]


FYP

I'll come out and say a lot of progressives smarten up and vote for the guy who looks like he can win. Between that and a lot of CPC supporters staying home because of the fact its a byelection and because the candidate is terrible:

Locke 35%
Crockatt: 33%
Turner: 22%
Meades: 8%
Other: 2%

[c.t.ner]

Yeah, I don't even know where to begin with a prediction.

I think turnout will be pretty low and I think regardless of the Conservatives GOTV, I think Crockatt is such a bad candidate and has burned so many bridges that she'll struggle to get past the 32% mark. That maybe enough to push her over the top, but I think it's going to be tight. I also think that Meades will still get 8% of the vote.

That being said, I can't tell which of Locke or Turner's teams will be able to pull this off.

Tough call to see how the other 60% of the vote flows.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Slava

FYP

I'll come out and say a lot of progressives smarten up and vote for the guy who looks like he can win. Between that and a lot of CPC supporters staying home because of the fact its a byelection and because the candidate is terrible:

Locke 35%
Crockatt: 33%
Turner: 22%
Meades: 8%
Other: 2%

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Yeah, I don't even know where to begin with a prediction.

I think turnout will be pretty low and I think regardless of the Conservatives GOTV, I think Crockatt is such a bad candidate and has burned so many bridges that she'll struggle to get past the 32% mark. That maybe enough to push her over the top, but I think it's going to be tight. I also think that Meades will still get 8% of the vote.

That being said, I can't tell which of Locke or Turner's teams will be able to pull this off.

Tough call to see how the other 60% of the vote flows.

IMHO, I think that you nailed it!

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Slava

IMHO, I think that you nailed it!

Ha!

Truth be told, I think Meades is the spoiler that will keep the whole thing unpredictable.

Yes, people are allowed to vote for whomever they believe in and I think that's a strong part of democracy, but at the same time I still think there are good chunk of the NDP's new core that aren't full engaged with the by-election. I think they will just walk in and cross odf NDP because there's a box on the ballot.

That's my gut feeling.

For the record, I don't think Meades is a bad candidate or an unworthy MP - nothing against the guy. I just don't think the NDP, even though they said they wanted to run a full and sophisticated campaign, never really put forth a strong effort. It was a really bad sign when they didn't have a nomination until a week after the election was called.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Ha!

Truth be told, I think Meades is the spoiler that will keep the whole thing unpredictable.

Yes, people are allowed to vote for whomever they believe in and I think that's a strong part of democracy, but at the same time I still think there are good chunk of the NDP's new core that aren't full engaged with the by-election. I think they will just walk in and cross odf NDP because there's a box on the ballot.

That's my gut feeling.

For the record, I don't think Meades is a bad candidate or an unworthy MP - nothing against the guy. I just don't think the NDP, even though they said they wanted to run a full and sophisticated campaign, never really put forth a strong effort. It was a really bad sign when they didn't have a nomination until a week after the election was called.

I'm not sure that the NDP will stay close to 8%. Last time there was a really contentious vote in this riding, is was the 'Liberals for Joe Clark' election in 2000. That election, NDP vote dropped from 6% to an all-time worst 2.8%, and then immediately rebounded next election to over 8%. I think you might see a similar drop-off here, but I've got no idea whether those votes will go Green or Liberal.

If there is indeed a 'new core' of NDP support that's a little more loyal than the traditional makeup of the riding, then maybe you're right. I'm not living in the riding anymore, so I don't really have a feel for the demographics there.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Just voted. I think my wife and I were the only voters in there under 65.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Just voted. I think my wife and I were the only voters in there under 65.

Thats probably because of the time of the day. Most people under 65 are at work or in school right now. I'm sure after 5 pm the polls will be flooded with young adults and the middle aged.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

On another note, Joan Crockatt volunteers just came and knocked on my door. They seemed like nice folks.

Holy F! they are door knocking in Iowa. I will give her a pass on missing those debates!

[J pold]

So I've been tremendously busy these past few weeks and haven't paid much attention to this election, despite being able to vote in it. Not a fan of Crockett given her actions over the past few weeks, and while the other candidates have reached out to me in some form or another she has done essentially nothing to deserve my vote other then fly the CPC Flag.

I wish I could like Harvey Locke more than I do. Something about him just seems disingenuous and he embodies the smugness of the Toronto elitist wing that I can't stand about the Liberal Party. Overall the NDP and the Greens have done by far the most to earn my vote with regular door knocking and campaigning but I cannot bring myself to vote for a party associated with Thomas Mulcair. Which now leaves only the Greens, who I never thought I’d vote for at any level. Ah, someone just tell me what to think.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I used to live in the riding for about 8 years. I'd vote Crokpot for 3 reasons.

1) To see Justin cry.
2) She promised to do what Harper tells her.
3) To watch the meltdown here as people add up the vote of every other party and claim that they all voted against the Cons.

What terrible reasons to vote for a candidate. This is civic engagement?

I guess we deserve the government we elect.

[pepper24]

I think with all the vote splitting with the Liberals, Green and NDP that the Conservatives will unfortunately win. Terrible candidate.

[Senator Clay Davis]

She's certainly high on the list of worst candidates I've ever seen. Certainly in the top 3 most unqualified for sure. She likely would be in the low single digits without that CPC next to her name. Regardless the outcome, this was really a no win situation for the CPC, if they win this riding its because they were supposed to, and if they lose its an unmitigated disaster.