Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[longsuffering]

nm

Question already answered.

[FlamesAddiction]

There is also a by-election going on in my riding right (the Bev Oda riding), but I think I will sit out again. I can't justify voting in a Conservative again as I think a point needs to be made about Oda. The Liberal in town has pissed me off because he put up posters with a soldier on them and says to "support the troops - vote Liberal", somehow implying that people who don't vote for them are not supporting the troops. Then the NDP guy actually had the nerve to send a campaigner into my private condo building that explicitly says that there are no sales or soliciting allowed.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

There is also a by-election going on in my riding right (the Bev Oda riding), but I think I will sit out again. I can't justify voting in a Conservative again as I think a point needs to be made about Oda. The Liberal in town has pissed me off because he put up posters with a soldier on them and says to "support the troops - vote Liberal", somehow implying that people who don't vote for them are not supporting the troops. Then the NDP guy actually had the nerve to send a campaigner into my private condo building that explicitly says that there are no sales or soliciting allowed.

Campaigning and sales are completely different. Private condos are not off-limits for candidates knocking on doors, and are fair game for any political party. Not saying you should change your opinion at all, just saying that they didn't do anything wrong here by the sound of it.

[OffsideSpecialist]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

There is also a by-election going on in my riding right (the Bev Oda riding), but I think I will sit out again. I can't justify voting in a Conservative again as I think a point needs to be made about Oda. The Liberal in town has pissed me off because he put up posters with a soldier on them and says to "support the troops - vote Liberal", somehow implying that people who don't vote for them are not supporting the troops. Then the NDP guy actually had the nerve to send a campaigner into my private condo building that explicitly says that there are no sales or soliciting allowed.

Humes doesn't have a shot in hell anyway and from what I read of his AMA on reddit he came across as a tool. O'Connor is a very popular union guy and O'Toole is the son is your beloved MPP. I think O'Toole runs away with it on Monday and I think that's what the polls have been suggesting too. If I were still there I think I would be most likely to vote for O'Connor. I know my dad is considering him as a kind of protest vote.

You could always vote for the Christian Heritage Party

[longsuffering]

I've got a question on polling. I live in Calgary Centre and we are literally getting 2 polling calls a night on the land line. It's gotten to the point where I won't answer the phone. I don't believe that I am alone in this. Add that fact that I won't answer any 'unknown' callers on my cell phone ever, and one has to wonder, who are the polling companies speak to?

So the question is, with the invention of call display and call screening, are telephone polls still valid? Are telephone polls truly a random sampling?

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by longsuffering

So the question is, with the invention of call display and call screening, are telephone polls still valid? Are telephone polls truly a random sampling?

For polling companies that is the million dollar question. That industry is really at it's "change with the times or fall the way of the dinosaur" point, similar to what the Music Industry faced a few years ago.

This past US Election was the first event in what I think will be a major shake-up to the industry. Outfits which don't phone cell phones or used a sampling that was considerably dated were killed in the election - Gravis and Rassmussen come to mind. While other polls that combined cell phone and a better demographic sampling did a far better job. PPP and Google come to mind as being more accurate. And we're also talking about the US, where because of their electoral system, pollsters have a far more data to make informed guesses on sampling distribution, race, gender, etc.,

In Canada the best a pollster can do is go through the phone book and hope it's reliable.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

On the one hand I agree. People should vote for the candidate they most believe in and whose values corresponds with theirs. On the other hand...what if that candidate doesn't exist? What if none of the options available are particularly inticing to you? Should you just not vote at all?

In the same vain, what if there is a candidate that you believe should they be elected, it would have negative consequences for you (i.e. your taxes will rise if this candidate is elected)? Is voting strategically a bad thing to avoid the worst result? For example, say you're in a riding that the NDP appears favored to win, with the Liberals the next most popular option. Would you just not vote? Or would you vote Liberal to ensure the NDP doesn't get in?

Ultimately, since its the individual who has the right to vote, I can't actually have a problem with them making a decision based on what they feel is in their best interest. The beauties (and pitfalls) of freedom.

I just feel that polls have an undue influence in this matter, which is why I think we would be better off without them a week before an election. Polls can exacerbate the anti vote, and you end up with results that are more influenced by the party's position in the latest poll than by the party's platform.

And this sword cuts both ways. Not only can it affect the party leading or close to leading the polls but it can also affect the support that the 3rd place party gets... in fact if there is enough strategic voting, due to polling results, there is a very good chance that 3rd place parties can be virtually eliminated through lack of voting support.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by longsuffering

I've got a question on polling. I live in Calgary Centre and we are literally getting 2 polling calls a night on the land line. It's gotten to the point where I won't answer the phone. I don't believe that I am alone in this. Add that fact that I won't answer any 'unknown' callers on my cell phone ever, and one has to wonder, who are the polling companies speak to?

So the question is, with the invention of call display and call screening, are telephone polls still valid? Are telephone polls truly a random sampling?

That's why the Turner campaign was accused by some of gaming the polls by telling supporters to pick up calls when they know a poll is being taken.

Even without that it's questionable - last night I called twice by Forum (I have two land lines). I declined to complete the second poll.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Slava

Campaigning and sales are completely different. Private condos are not off-limits for candidates knocking on doors, and are fair game for any political party. Not saying you should change your opinion at all, just saying that they didn't do anything wrong here by the sound of it.

Those might be the rules, but you're taking a pretty huge risk of pissing people off when you invade their privacy.

The other day I was stopped at a red light, and happened to notice a small group clearly doing some sort of door knocking campaign (or something of that nature). They came up to this house with a giant 7 foot fence that came out all the way to the property line, had a locked gate, and a huge "No trespassing" sign (big enough that i could read it from 40 feet away). This was right around dinner time too. The little group spent the entire minute or 2 of my red-light stop trying to get in...knocking on the gate, yelling in, and trying to jiggle the door.

Talk about obnoxiously ignoring somebody's obvious desire for privacy. If that was my house, I'm pretty sure I'd be voting for the other guy.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by edslunch

That's why the Turner campaign was accused by some of gaming the polls by telling supporters to pick up calls when they know a poll is being taken.

Even without that it's questionable - last night I called twice by Forum (I have two land lines). I declined to complete the second poll.

Which begs the question... can polls these days really be trusted and if they are untrustworthy, should they not be banned during the last week of an election because of their undue influence on the electorate?

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Which begs the question... can polls these days really be trusted and if they are untrustworthy, should they not be banned during the last week of an election because of their undue influence on the electorate?

In the end, polls are just educated guesses, so I don't have a huge issue with it. For me, I like to have all the information available to me.

What I personally don't like is releasing voting results while part of the electorate is still voting. Ie, knowing what the results are on the East coast, while the Western polls are still open.

[Slava]

I can't believe a conservative is here arguing to crush free speech rights and add more governmental regulation!

[mariners_fever]

What everyone here forgets, or may not even know, the primary purpose of most polls they answer has nothing to do with wanting to know percentages. It's to ID voters.

Sample sizes and MOEs don't matter when you've id'ed 500 more votes.

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

For polling companies that is the million dollar question. That industry is really at it's "change with the times or fall the way of the dinosaur" point, similar to what the Music Industry faced a few years ago.

This past US Election was the first event in what I think will be a major shake-up to the industry. Outfits which don't phone cell phones or used a sampling that was considerably dated were killed in the election - Gravis and Rassmussen come to mind. While other polls that combined cell phone and a better demographic sampling did a far better job. PPP and Google come to mind as being more accurate. And we're also talking about the US, where because of their electoral system, pollsters have a far more data to make informed guesses on sampling distribution, race, gender, etc.,

In Canada the best a pollster can do is go through the phone book and hope it's reliable.

Thanks for the answer. Appreciate it.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Slava

I can't believe a conservative is here arguing to crush free speech rights and add more governmental regulation!

God help me!!! Neither can I!!!

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Which begs the question... can polls these days really be trusted and if they are untrustworthy, should they not be banned during the last week of an election because of their undue influence on the electorate?

So far you're the only person who believes that polling results could have an "undue influence" on voters. Did I miss the post where you had data to support that assertion?

I think you're trying to create a solution to a problem that doesn't exist.

And even if it did exist, who are you to decide whether anyone casts their votes "for the right reasons" or not?

Maybe we should ban political panels on TV. They too may have an undue influence on election results. Hell, let's ban all forms of election advertising - it exists solely to influence voters.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Table 5

In the end, polls are just educated guesses, so I don't have a huge issue with it. For me, I like to have all the information available to me.

What I personally don't like is releasing voting results while part of the electorate is still voting. Ie, knowing what the results are on the East coast, while the Western polls are still open.

Yes... but is the truth or a lie?... and should your voting preference be determined by how you believe your neighbor plans to vote?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by mariners_fever

What everyone here forgets, or may not even know, the primary purpose of most polls they answer has nothing to do with wanting to know percentages. It's to ID voters.

Sample sizes and MOEs don't matter when you've id'ed 500 more votes.

If its done by a party/candidate then , ya there is that element. Sometimes its pure information though, and these are often paid for by media who wants a story.

The entire campaign is voter ID and GOTV. Everything else revolves around that.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Yes... but is the truth or a lie?...

When it comes to elections, I just assume everything is a lie.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Yes... but is the truth or a lie?... and should your voting preference be determined by how you believe your neighbor plans to vote?

Who are you to say what the right reasons for people to vote and what are the wrong reasons?