Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Has there been a decision made by 1CC for who to vote for?

1CC will not be "endorsing" anyone, they're just providing another data point. Results should be out soon, they estimated 9 AM.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Has there been a decision made by 1CC for who to vote for?

Here's a link to the raw data. http://www.1calgarycentre.com/the-results/

(It's really, really raw at the time and later today a much cleaner dashboard will be released making it easier to read all the information). So if you want to dig through all the data, by all means.

[SebC]

Preliminary analysis is Turner won 1CC a landslide. I'm going with the public polling instead and voting Locke.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by SebC

1CC will not be "endorsing" anyone, they're just providing another data point. Results should be out soon, they estimated 9 AM.

Clearly I need to look into it more, but I though the whole point was that they all agree to endorse the same candidate so they don't split the progressive vote.

[c.t.ner]

Just a quick follow-up to the data for those looking.

1) Yes, Turner supporters were the strongest represented in the poll.
2) Harvey has really strong numbers as a second/third option. Came in second as a first option and first as the second option. (For those curious Harvey's numbers by pulling Greens and NDPs indicate that people will support him to prevent Joan)
3) Meades did not do so well overall. He was ranked as a third option by a majority of the people who voted. Only 4 people expect him to win.
4) 30% of voters still think Crockatt will win the race.

More info to come, but that's some quick points from what I picked up.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Meades did not do so well overall. He was ranked as a third option by a majority of the people who voted. Only 4 people expect him to win.

And they're either crazy or lying.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Just a quick follow-up to the data for those looking.

1) Yes, Turner supporters were the strongest represented in the poll.

I can hardly believe it. The only poll that doesn't have a true random sample is the one that shows Turner ahead of Locke.

[Hack&Lube]

Where are the city centre polling stations? I'm new here and tried the search on the federal government website and it returned no results.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Slava

I can hardly believe it. The only poll that doesn't have a true random sample is the one that shows Turner ahead of Locke.

Yeah, and now his supporters will use it to split the vote further. 1CalgaryCentre is turning into a counterproductive nightmare.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Has there been a decision made by 1CC for who to vote for?

Yup, if I recall the initial idea was to endorse someone, but as the project moved on it was decided to not endorse anyone specifically and instead let the information provided by people voted to speak for itself.

I owe both Slava and jtfrogger compliments for the comments and discussion on 1CC. I meant to reply in more detail to both comments as they are well deserved criticism, but I ran out of time yesterday and also didn't want to completely derail the thread. Also, being closely tied to the project skews my outside perspective, everyone is allowed to take what they want from what we did and the information provided.

I will say this about the project, the concept behind 1CC was try something different within the scope of the campaign and to get Progressive voters engaged and excited about the opportunity. There are a lot of critics out there and an almost equal number of people excited about the idea. The other thing we wanted to do was try something different then what was tried in the past. Things like the Democracy Renewal project - http://www.drproject.ca/ and Vote Sharing http://www.fairvote.ca/en/press-rele...ir-vote-canada and other attempts "unite progressives" are all interesting and have failed in the past. This was something different and a different approach. At the end of the day people will and want to vote for a variety of reasons.

Anyways, some more stats for those curious.

1) The break down of who people voted for last time was 35% voted Libs, 27% voted Green, 25% voted NDP and 4% Conservatives.
2) 77% "Want a candidate that can bring a voice to Calgary, and that understands our diversity, spirit and image of the riding."

My take from looking at things is that Harvey still has a strong chance to pull people to unite around him. The strongest group who voted were Liberals (35%) and a majority of people voted wanted someone who represents Calgary Centre in a better format. Given that Harvey was a consensus Second pick, even for the large block of Green voters, he can still pull people towards him.

But that's just my take. The info is there for people to dig through.

[Rerun]

Frankly I would like to see the publishing of polls in the 7 days prior to an election, made illegal.

JMO

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Frankly I would like to see the publishing of polls in the 7 days prior to an election, made illegal.

JMO

Of course you do. You want the Conservatives to win by vote split.

[Rerun]

I just don't like the anti vote. I believe people should vote for the person or party they believe in.... not the person or party they think has the best chance at defeating the person or party they don't like.


One is positive democracy, the other is negative. I would feel the same way if it looked like an NDPer was about to be elected.

[mariners_fever]

Originally Posted by SebC

Yeah, and now his supporters will use it to split the vote further. 1CalgaryCentre is turning into a counterproductive nightmare.

Had a feeling it would be.....

[mariners_fever]

Originally Posted by Slava

I agree that things have degenerated here and have become quite polarized. I used the word troll here because that's what it was. Shawnski posted his bait, I stupidly took it and he hasn't posted since.

We'll just have to keep on posting intelligently from our respective sides. I've definitely had some good conversations here too, like the one with SebC in this thread regarding tax cutting and Laffer curves. That's the way it ought be.

[Bigtime]

My new prediction for Monday:

Votes will be split so many times that it will unleash the power of the atom, completely destroying Calgary Centre.


I am actually glad I don't live in the riding, I honestly don't know if I'd give my vote to the Libs or Greens. My gut tells me I'd still vote Turner ultimately standing before that ballot. Perhaps if most hold true to that we may see something shocking?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Rerun

I just don't like the anti vote. I believe people should vote for the person or party they believe in.... not the person or party they think has the best chance at defeating the person or party they don't like.


One is positive democracy, the other is negative. I would feel the same way if it looked like an NDPer was about to be elected.

On the one hand I agree. People should vote for the candidate they most believe in and whose values corresponds with theirs. On the other hand...what if that candidate doesn't exist? What if none of the options available are particularly inticing to you? Should you just not vote at all?

In the same vain, what if there is a candidate that you believe should they be elected, it would have negative consequences for you (i.e. your taxes will rise if this candidate is elected)? Is voting strategically a bad thing to avoid the worst result? For example, say you're in a riding that the NDP appears favored to win, with the Liberals the next most popular option. Would you just not vote? Or would you vote Liberal to ensure the NDP doesn't get in?

Ultimately, since its the individual who has the right to vote, I can't actually have a problem with them making a decision based on what they feel is in their best interest. The beauties (and pitfalls) of freedom.

[edslunch]

The ranked preferences in the 1CalgaryCentre are really interesting. If this was a random poll then that data would be quite useful for identifying a consensus pick and who is most likely to take voters from the Conservatives.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

My new prediction for Monday:

Votes will be split so many times that it will unleash the power of the atom, completely destroying Calgary Centre.


I am actually glad I don't live in the riding, I honestly don't know if I'd give my vote to the Libs or Greens. My gut tells me I'd still vote Turner ultimately standing before that ballot. Perhaps if most hold true to that we may see something shocking?

Heart = Turner
Head = Locke
Hand on Monday = not sure yet

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Heart = Turner
Head = Locke
Hand on Monday = not sure yet

That would describe me nicely right now. I'm almost glad I don't have to vote in this one.