Provincial Election Poll/Prediction Thread

[bosox_fan05]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I am not surprised. I am pretty sure polls of more informed voters always tend toward a central position.

No way those numbers are matched at the polls though, as the average voter is FAR less informed than the CP member.

I really just feel disaffected with all of the parties at this point, so I am voting PC to hopefully get some form of a minority government. Hopefully we can have another election in a couple years and a party will adopt a more libertarian viewpoint that I can more fully endorse.

[Kjesse]

I predict a narrow Wildrose majority, about 6 seats. I think the Liberals are in big trouble, 2 seats tops, and the PC's form the official opposition. Redford wins her seat, but narrowly. Morton loses his. Denis is the only PC in Calgary to win by a convincing margin.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Somewhat OT question, but am I allowed to bring my 2 year old to the ballot booth with me? My wife has the 11 to 7 shift today, so basically I'm looking at trying to go vote at 7:30 or later by the time she gets home, yells at me for having a lousy day, and changes out of her work clothes. If I can bring the kid...than I can go after we eat around 6:30 and at least vote.

I just voted and a few people had their kids with them, didn't seem to be an issue at all.

Nor should it be, really.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Three Hundred Eight has Incumbent Liberal MLA Darshan Kang recieving a maximum of 24% of the vote, with the average of 19.7%, and finishing in third place.

There's ZERO chance that it's going to be that low, IMO. I stand by my claim that it's going to be a fairly close three way race, and I can't see Kang finishing lower than second place.

308 is not a great site in my opinion, the methodology is questionable in my opinion. I think there are a number of factors that indicate how an election will go:

1) Public polling
2) Fundraising Numbers
3) Public Momentum
4) Higher voter turnout is almost always bad for the governing party

All of those factors are against the PC Party. With that in mind, I have the following prediction

Wildrose 42% of the vote, 51 seats
PC Party 35 of the vote, 31 seats
NDP 12% of the vote, 4 seats
Liberals 10 of the vote, 2 seats.

I have a hard time seeing the Wild Rose with less than 18 seats in Calgary, less than 28 in rural Alberta and less than 4 in Edmonton due to vote splits.

[North East Goon]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Three Hundred Eight has Incumbent Liberal MLA Darshan Kang recieving a maximum of 24% of the vote, with the average of 19.7%, and finishing in third place.

There's ZERO chance that it's going to be that low, IMO. I stand by my claim that it's going to be a fairly close three way race, and I can't see Kang finishing lower than second place.

There is a lot of voter fraud that goes on in that area, people voting twice, people voting under different aliases etc...

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I am not surprised. I am pretty sure polls of more informed voters always tend toward a central position.

No way those numbers are matched at the polls though, as the average voter is FAR less informed than the CP member.

[SportsJunky]

My informal poll over the weekend shows a dramatic shift (among the savages I hang out with mind you) to PC from WRA in the last few days. I voted this morning and it was very dead by the way.

[jtfrogger]

I am guessing a slim Wildrose majority.

So:
Wildrose 45
PC 34
Liberal 3
NDP 5
Other 0

As a side note, I predict that none of the following get elected: Byfield, Leech, Carpay, Rasheed, Morton, Hunsperger, Goudreau. I think Lukaszuk will likely lose too. Basically, I believe that Albertans will no long tolerate those that have a history homophobic or racially insensitive comments or bullying.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Slava

Liberals: 6

I think that they win as many as 8-9 actually, but at least 3 in Calgary, perhaps 2 in Lethbridge and another 1-3 Edmonton. A lot depending on the vote splits and where the vote holds.

Liberals won't get anything in Lethbridge. There is two ridings in Lethbridge, East and West. The East will probably go to Bridgit Pastoor, a PC candidate who has been involved in politics in Lethbridge for a long time. She was previously voted in as Liberal and most likely not because she was Liberal but because of who she was. She'll still get in now that she is PC.

In the West it will probably also go to PC Candidate Greg Weadick. Another longtime political participant in Lethbridge. The NDP candidate will give him a good run, but he'll win.

In Lethbridge people tend to go with familiarity.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by getbak

If the Wildrose wins, how long until someone demands the slogan on our licence plates gets changed?

I'm not a Wildrose party supporter. I think I'll remove the license plates from my vehicle now, just so I don't confuse the situation.

[photon]

Originally Posted by Buff

I'm not a Wildrose party supporter. I think I'll remove the license plates from my vehicle now, just so I don't confuse the situation.

You'll be able to do that anyway, we'll all be free men on the land after they win.

[malcolmk14]

Working a polling station in the SW. Kids are no problem

[trackercowe]

NM found it.

[trackercowe]

Originally Posted by jtfrogger

I am guessing a slim Wildrose minority.

So:
Wildrose 45
PC 34
Liberal 3
NDP 5
Other 0

As a side note, I predict that none of the following get elected: Byfield, Leech, Carpay, Rasheed, Morton, Hunsperger, Goudreau. I think Lukaszuk will likely lose too. Basically, I believe that Albertans will no long tolerate those that have a history homophobic or racially insensitive comments or bullying.

You may want to re-check your math on that one, as that is a slim majority.

[jtfrogger]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

Would anyone happen to have a website with locations of polling stations? Can't seem to find one that will actually look up my address.

Check here: http://wtv.elections.ab.ca/wtWhereDoIVote.cfm

Originally Posted by trackercowe

You may want to re-check your math on that one, as that is a slim majority.

I meant slim majority, so I fixed my wording and left the seat distribution.

[Buff]

I think NDP is going to take a bigger chunk of the votes than people are giving them credit. This is why PC will remain in power and WildRose remains 2nd best.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

I sure hope this CP poll is accurate...

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Buff

I think NDP is going to take a bigger chunk of the votes than people are giving them credit. This is why PC will remain in power and WildRose remains 2nd best.

NDP is completely irrelevant outside of parts of Edmonton.

If the PCs remain in power, Dr. Leech is probably the guy you can thank for it.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

4) Higher voter turnout is almost always bad for the governing party

The WR voters are very passionate ones who vote WR because they are sick of PC, don't like Redford etc.

The PC voters are like, I don't know who I should vote so maybe PC again just by brand recognition.

The WR votes are hard votes and PC votes are much softer. I think God is smiling on us by giving us balmy weather today (you are free to call me a religious bigot).

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

I sure hope this CP poll is accurate...

God I hope not. 4 more years of the CP party as the ruling elite would be unbearable. They don't deserve to win based on their past record of incompetence and mismanagement.