Provincial Election Poll/Prediction Thread

[Slava]

Mods, could you please set up a poll for people to declare their voting intentions in tomorrows election? (or if they voted in the advance poll)

I also thought it might be fun to see where people think the seats end up. Its hard to predict, obviously, but fun nonetheless. I know some people put theirs in the other election thread, but these will be buried in there if they aren't already! I'll take a stab first. I've given my brief thoughts with each seat projection:

NDP: 6

I think they manage to squeak through four more in Edmonton. That is actually a big gain for the NDP if they do this though, its official party status and tripling their current count.

Liberals: 6

I think that they win as many as 8-9 actually, but at least 3 in Calgary, perhaps 2 in Lethbridge and another 1-3 Edmonton. A lot depending on the vote splits and where the vote holds.

PC: 38

I think that they do better in Calgary than expected and manage to win some seats in Edmonton. They lose a lot of rural seats, but overall a lot of on the fence voters come back. I think that a lot of voters have a quick second thought in the booth and FPTP distortion comes to their aid to give them a minority.

Wildrose: 37

Obviously I'm predicting that this is a nail-biter and one seat is hardly a huge margin either way. I do think that things are really divided though and I think in the cities the Wildrose has more and more trouble as it gets closer to the core. That combined with that "second thought" I posed above I think leaves them just short.

Final percentages:

Wildrose: 40%
PC's 36%
Liberals: 10%
NDP: 11%
Other: 3%

[troutman]

Other

[Bunk]

In my pool at work (selected on Friday) I picked:

Wildrose 47
PC 31
Liberal 6
NDP 3
AB 0

I'll stick with that. Hoping though for a minority - that would be best for Alberta democracy.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I predicted 39-38 Wildrose late last week, but I'm gonna Mitt Romney myself and flip flop here.

PC 39 (37%)
Wildrose 38 (39%)
Liberal 5 (12%)
NDP 5 (10%)

I think it might be a late night tomorrow, maybe even a recount or two

[Jacks]

I'll stick with my prediction from the other day.

Originally Posted by Jacks

Alright, time for some predictions, don't be chickens.

Wildrose - (40 - 52 seats) I'm going with 48
PC - (27 - 39 seats) I'm going with 31
Lib - 2 (Raj and either Swann or Hehr)
NDP - 6
AP - They'll have plenty of preparation time for when they form government in 5 years.

Fearless predictions:
- Redford will not resign on election night but will be gone shortly after. (unless she loses her seat).
- Morton loses his seat.
- Strategic voting decimates the Liberals but has little effect on the NDP in Edmonton.

Edit: As Slava alluded to, please don't bury the predictions with a ton of off topic posts, please keep the general discussion in the main thread.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=115952

[Fire]

Prediction

WildRose: 49 seats
PCs: 32 seats
NDP: 4 seats
Liberals: 2 seats

Wildrose majority. Will basically sweep the rural ridings. Will remain in power for 30 years.

[Nehkara]

Last poll of the campaign:



Based on this development, I will guess the following:

Wildrose - 38% (42 seats)
PC - 38% (40 seats)
Lib - 10% (1 seat)
NDP - 14% (4 seats)
AP - 2% (0 seats)

Wildrose Minority.

[Rathji]

More and more I am thinking Wildrose majority is the most likely outcome.

I think any majority government is bad at this point. I would much rather be back at the polls in 2 years that give either the PC or Wildrose strong mandates on the platforms they are running with.

I really want both Redford and Smith to lose their seats, but I seriously doubt it will happen.

[Dion]

Wildrose minority with Redford losing her seat

[Resolute 14]

I'm sorry Slava, but there is no chance in hell the Liberals hold onto the same number of seats as they had coming out of 2008 with 1/3 the vote.

[CaptainCrunch]

Wildrose wins the majority, NDP sees a seat increase, Liberals stagnate

Allison loses her seat and is looking for a new job by the end of next week. Sherman is tossed for not gaining any improvements and the Liberal's declare themselves a dead brand here and merge with the NDP and Communist party.

[Flickered Flame]

PC-40
WRA-38
NDP-5
LIB-4

I could actually see Redford, Smith and Sherman all losing their seats tomorrow night.

[J epworth]

Prediction: Reddit is going to blow up when the WRA is elected as government, either as a minority or majority.

[spotthefan]

I have been non-stop with this election, and I am actually excited and relieved it is coming to an end. Watching polls is not always the same as hearing and seeing what is happening.

Although threehundredandeight.blogspot.com does a very good job summarizing, I can't see how WRA carries the night with a majority. I think a lot of the ridings will be very close and in ridings with a viable 3rd candidate, vote splitting taking its toll.

I also truly believe that we will see the AB Party elect its first few candidates.

- Sue Huff has been campaigning for 10 months and is well liked in many circles.
- Leader Glenn Taylor was mayor of Hinton and is very popular.
- Dani Klooster in Sylvan Lake is a very strong candidate
- Mike Osborne is also a very strong candidate for his riding.

They may not all win, but I wouldn't be surprised with a few seats. Which is more than the WRA in the last election.

Overall I hope for a minority, with either in power. A change in conservatism isn't needed. A change in Alberta's voice is...

As for my prediction

WRA - 38 Seats
PC - 36 seats
Lib - 4 seats
NDP - 6 seats
AP - 4 seats

[Smartcar]

I predict all the leaders will win their seats but beyond that who knows, just guessing. But for fun:
PC 40
WR 36
Lib 6
NDP 4
AP 1

[Cube Inmate]

WR 49
PC 32
Lib 3
NDP 3

Vote-splitting & strategic voting may be a factor, but the biggest factor is that WR supporters are more likely to show up than those from the left side who either (a) know they'll be wasting their vote on a 3rd-5th party, or (b) will have to hold their noses to vote PC.

[Cheese]

I predict a "conservative" government in Alberta....by majority.

[transplant99]

Wildrose - 47
PC - 32
Lib - 3
NDP - 5

Calgary decides this thing with a big chunk going WR.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I'm sorry Slava, but there is no chance in hell the Liberals hold onto the same number of seats as they had coming out of 2008 with 1/3 the vote.

Nothing to be sorry about. Its about their concentration of votes, not the province-wide percentage. Remember how the Reform would get 60-70 seats with about 12% national support? Same principle. Thats and its a guess with some wishful thinking mixed in. Realistically if Smith loses her seat though I'll be thrilled.

[Sr. Mints]

PC 45
Wildrose 31
Liberal 6
NDP 4
AB 1