April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Rerun

On a side note, it seems like a lot of people are getting these annoying robocalls. I suppose a lot of us would like to see them banned during elections. Should they be banned?

What about banning published poll results during an election campaign? Do you think they have an influence on the way people vote? If yes, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Do you think published polls result in strategic voting by a lot of people? Isn't this somewhat of a corruption of the democratic system. Shouldn't people be voting for someone instead of against someone?

Just some thoughts...

Published polling seems like a free speech issue to me.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Published polling seems like a free speech issue to me.

Perhaps you're right.... I guess you could say that about robocalling too

[darklord700]

The suspense is killing me and I can hardly concentrate on work today.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Perhaps you're right.... I guess you could say that about robocalling too

Robocalling seems a bit different than published polling. If I have to look up a poll, that's my choice. If you cause a noise to go off in my house by calling me 5 times per day, that was your choice. The level of invasiveness is very different. IMO only, obviously.

[mykalberta]

I have only been robocalled by WRA - no one else has called.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Forum Research, however, has it 38-36 in a poll taken today, and a huge change from yesterday: http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca...ast-hours.html

The Forum poll is really funny. The WR loses seats to NDP and Lib, I find that hard to believe. It says NDP and Lib will win a combined 22 seats. I can see that PC picks up seats at the expense of WR but not NDP/Lib.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think a good portion of the soft WR support hates the PCs, so the fact they went to the Libs or NDP isn't all that shocking. I also think 308's numbers have been questionable at best, so anyone using those numbers as a guide is in for more than a few surprises.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think a good portion of the soft WR support hates the PCs, so the fact they went to the Libs or NDP isn't all that shocking. I also think 308's numbers have been questionable at best, so anyone using those numbers as a guide is in for more than a few surprises.

The problem is that the "soft support that hates the PCs" hates the PCs because they moved well left of where they once were. That group isn't going to vote even farther left.


Anyway, WTF Linda Johnson in Calgary-Glenmore? I counted 57 campaign signs on one side of Southland between Southport Road and 14 Street this morning, then over 100 on 14th Street between Southland and Heritage. Looked to be dozens of signs down 90 Ave too. Talk about massive waste and excess. Co-worker of mine who lives in her riding saw this too and said right away "I'm not voting for her, specifically because of that."

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by darklord700

The Forum poll is really funny. The WR loses seats to NDP and Lib, I find that hard to believe. It says NDP and Lib will win a combined 22 seats. I can see that PC picks up seats at the expense of WR but not NDP/Lib.

I really think you are underestimating the effect of the right of center vote splitting, probably due to you being convinced that you really couldn't get much more left than the PC party.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Just walking through the Somerset and Bridlewood areas, and I must say they were largely devoid of much signage. In fact when I was walking to the train today I think I saw more "For Sale" signs at houses than signs supporting someone.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

With call display, we don't pick up unfamiliar numbers or obvious marketing numbers so I can't say for sure if we've gotten zero or a hundred robocalls.

Do people really blindly answer the phone every time it rings in this day and age?

Cowperson

I'm the same way, but I've received robo-calls from the PCs, Wildrose, and Liberals that have left messages on my voice mail, so I had no choice but to go into my voice mail and delete them.

Wildrose was by far the worst offender. Yesterday I got calls from two different Wildrose candidates (Glenmore, where I used to live; and Mountain View, where I currently live), so it appears I'm on two different Wildrose lists, which might explain the excess from them.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I really think you are underestimating the effect of the right of center vote splitting

In some ridings maybe, probably mostly Edmonton.

Edit: Let me rephrase that. If the WR and PC"s combined have 70+% of the vote then it doesn't matter what the split is, one of them is winning the riding. Obviously that doesn't apply to every riding but it applies to most.

[Yeah_Baby]

I was really torn on who to vote for. I hate First Past the Post (Yeah I'm a hippy and like proportional representation) but I was thinking of voting strategically. Then I realized I'm against it. So I voted for the MLA I want to represent me. Idealism for the win!


Oh and special thanks to my Liberal Candidate who knocked on my door and made sure I as on the list in Edmonton. Sorry I didn't vote for you bud.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Yeah_Baby

So I voted for the MLA I want to represent me. Idealism for the win!

I think you should've voted for the Premier you would like to see on the paper everyday for the next 4 years.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I think you should've voted for the Premier you would like to see on the paper everyday for the next 4 years.

Glenn Taylor?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by darklord700

The Forum poll is really funny. The WR loses seats to NDP and Lib, I find that hard to believe. It says NDP and Lib will win a combined 22 seats. I can see that PC picks up seats at the expense of WR but not NDP/Lib.

I'm pretty sure the Forum poll shows NDP/Libs at a combined 22% of the popular vote, not 22 seats. I don't think anyone seriously thinks they'll get close to that.

If the Forum poll is accurate (and the "weekend poll" thing is somewhat controversial--clearly, when you call on the weekend more people are at home, so you tend to get a different demographic than during the week) then I think the Wild Rose should be alarmed. It would reflect significant tightening in the race, along with significant volatility in their numbers. They may well be feeling the effects of Leech-gate and Hunsberger-gate finally.

Of course, it's also possible that the poll reflects statistical noise, or sampling error due to being a weekend poll (though I've never really understood how that's supposed to work--I'm no expert, but I would think "more people at home"=more accurate sample makeup). I'm reasonably sure the "weekend poll" effect is less significant than the "cell phone" effect that we observed in 2008 (it seems abundantly clear that pollsters who don't call cell phones get much less accurate results) but anything is possible.

I actually get the feeling that what we're seeing now is a little bit of "sober second thought." If that's the case, we could be in for an exciting night: a significant portion of voters have already cast their ballots--will that be enough to tip the WR into majority territory?

Interesting times.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Jacks

In some ridings maybe, probably mostly Edmonton.

Edit: Let me rephrase that. If the WR and PC"s combined have 70+% of the vote then it doesn't matter what the split is, one of them is winning the riding. Obviously that doesn't apply to every riding but it applies to most.

Indeed. Outside of Edmonton, "the right" occupies 70-85% of the vote in most ridings. Vote splitting won't send Liberals or NDP through any more than strategic voting will ensure a PC candidate defeats the WR. There just isn't enough support to make it happen. It would impact only isolated ridings - like Kent Hehr's if his internal polling is to be believed.

[Puppet Guy]

Originally Posted by getbak

Wildrose was by far the worst offender. Yesterday I got calls from two different Wildrose candidates (Glenmore, where I used to live; and Mountain View, where I currently live), so it appears I'm on two different Wildrose lists, which might explain the excess from them.

I've gotten at least two robocalls from Wildrose; yesterday we got one from the candidate's daughter (Calgary-Acadia) who sounds like she's twelve. I thought that was a bit greasy.

[Sr. Mints]

What's the deal on campaigning on election day? I once heard it was not allowed . . .

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Sr. Mints

What's the deal on campaigning on election day? I once heard it was not allowed . . .

No campaign materials allowed in or on polling places.

Other than that there are no restrictions.