April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Or perhaps the price of crude oil rising to over $100/barrel also made such development more profitable? Why didn't that stupid NDP government think of that?!

Yes, only Albertans were smart enough to make a profit on Oil and Gas until prices were extreme.

Oh wait, so did Montana. And North Dakota.

Funny.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by Makarov

As I understand it, the system is based on potential revenues rather than actual revenues (this is certainly the case with respect to tax revenue; I'm just not sure about natural resource revenues.) Anyway, this is interesting. Do you have a source you could point me to so that I could learn more about this?

Read on page 2 where it says

“With the exception of natural resource revenues, the equalization formula estimates fiscal capacity in each of the above categories by determining how much per capita revenue each province could generate if all provinces had identical tax rates. In the case of natural resource revenues, because of the wide range of resources and royalty structures across the provinces, instead of creating a national average tax rate to measure fiscal capacity, actual resource revenues are used”

http://www.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/prb0820-e.pdf

[redforever]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Or perhaps the price of crude oil rising to over $100/barrel also made such development more profitable? Why didn't that stupid NDP government think of that?!

The investment costs to explore for and develop oil and gas in Saskatchewan are minimal compared to investment costs in the oil sands.

The oil sands need the high price for profitable exploration and development.

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

As I think Jacks mentioned, this election needs to end. My work productivity has declined steadily as the election has progressed.

You'd be a lot more productive if you didn't just spend all day posting BS.

[Jacks]

Preston Manning weighs in on the election, he's not really very kind to the PC's.
http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion...559/story.html

[darklord700]

Redford has her version of Bozo gate coming out today, not sure who's the bozo in this case.

No idea Gary Mar reinstated as envoy: Alison Redford

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/po...548/story.html

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by darklord700

No idea Gary Mar reinstated as envoy: Alison Redford

I wonder if anyone believe that she hasn't known that until now.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by darklord700

Redford has her version of Bozo gate coming out today, not sure who's the bozo in this case.

No idea Gary Mar reinstated as envoy: Alison Redford

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/po...548/story.html

I believe now that Mar has been found innocent of the allegations, that he has filed a defamation suit against Redford.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Oilsands revenue is actually fairly modest...for now...when the royalties change it will be another story (the royalties were lower until the epic capital costs incurred by industry are recovered...then they rise dramatically)

Alberta has boomed due to conventional natural gas recently...but that is slowing down...hopefully unconventional natural gas technology will help.

I don't see how that will help. The fact that unconventional technology has allowed the discovery of other sources of natural gas has only added to the already huge glut of natural gas that exists.

Companies such as Encana, who are heavily invested in natural gas, will have to adjust in a big way if natural gas prices do not recover.

[Jacks]

Raj just said he would provide a home, food, clothing and a job for every person.

and ponies ...

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by redforever

I believe now that Mar has been found innocent of the allegations, that he has filed a defamation suit against Redford.

That's the last thing Redford wants in these last few days. Redford is history as the leader of PC no matter what the outcome is. Looks like Mar is making a last ditch effort to come back.

[MarchHare]

I swear that bitching about Equalization without properly understanding how the program works and what goes into the formula has to be the #1 hobby of many Albertans.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by darklord700

That's the last thing Redford wants in these last few days. Redford is history as the leader of PC no matter what the outcome is. Looks like Mar is making a last ditch effort to come back.

I think he would be a fool to consider that. He has a nice job, I think the results of the last leadership race have already confirmed to him what the sentiment is towards him from Albertans. I think Mar knows his time in provincial politics was in the past.

The PC party did not make their big mistake this last leadership race. Redford is dealing with a lot of the Stelmach crappola that he left behind.

The PC party erred in electing Stelmach instead of Dinning as their leader.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But in a way the oil is Canada's as a whole. Without the oil in this province there would be no outgoing transfer payment issues, but another province would have the oil, and we'd be the ones begging for transfer payments. If Alberta's eastern border was 50km west or southern border a couple hundread kms south, this province would likely be as poor or poorer than Quebec.

Alberta is not benefitting as much now from conventional oil and gas reserves that you allude to in the surmised borders given in your post.

The fact that the oil sands have been developed substantially and huge amounts of crude have come on line from the oil sands is the main contributing factor to Alberta's positive economic fortunes.

[Senator Clay Davis]

They just mentioned on the radio that advanced polls are open and that at one there is a 40 minute wait to vote. I suspect that bodes well for the Wildrose.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by redforever

Read on page 2 where it says

“With the exception of natural resource revenues, the equalization formula estimates fiscal capacity in each of the above categories by determining how much per capita revenue each province could generate if all provinces had identical tax rates. In the case of natural resource revenues, because of the wide range of resources and royalty structures across the provinces, instead of creating a national average tax rate to measure fiscal capacity, actual resource revenues are used”

http://www.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/prb0820-e.pdf

Thanks. Now can somebody provide a source for the allegation that Quebec purposely sells its hydro-electricity to large corporations at significantly below market rates in order to lower their equalization "revenue score" and thus recieve more in the way of equalization transfers?

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

They just mentioned on the radio that advanced polls are open and that at one there is a 40 minute wait to vote. I suspect that bodes well for the Wildrose.

I'm going there after work to vote.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Thanks. Now can somebody provide a source for the allegation that Quebec purposely sells its hydro-electricity to large corporations at significantly below market rates in order to lower their equalization "revenue score" and thus recieve more in the way of equalization transfers?

Quebec's hydro cost to its consumers is half that of Ontario. Why?

Edit: Alberta could try some of Quebec's strategy. How?

Well, how about the province subsidize gas prices to its citizens instead of slapping hefty royalties on oil companies? That would reduce the fiscal capacity of Alberta too.

However, Alberta chooses not to do so and as a result, its fiscal capacity for the purposes of calculating equalization has skyrocketed, and made provinces without oil eligible for much more cash from Ottawa.

One could argue that strategy might be somewhat unethical but it certainly is not illegal, not at this point in time anyhow.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Knalus

Just how "easy" do you think it is to make a buck on the oilsands? Alberta has resources, but they are amongst the worst petroleum resources in the world. There are a lot of oilsands in different places around the world - Venezuela, Madagascar, Utah. None of them are economic. Venezuela's is larger, better grade, in a country with a longer history of oil production. It isn't profitable because it isn't in Alberta.

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Fortunately, Alberta has had the forsight to develop many more resources than just 'oil sands'. As we are all aware, I'm sure, Quebec sits upon major natural gas deposits. Natural Gas development was the lifeblood of the Alberta economy for many decades, could you explain why those resources were never developed?

Also, I'm confused by your statement regarding Federal Liberal grants being the main reason why the Oil Sands were developed. Could you explain what you mean, and maybe quantify them against the major Alberta investment initiatives (mainly the oil sands investment royalty holiday program)?

I'm not naive enough to suggest that Alberta hasn't put anything towards this, or that this is an "easy" way to make a buck. All I'm saying is that there are a lot of factors for how/why the oil industry is as important to the province and country today as it is. All levels of government have made sacrifices and contributions in one way or another.

Quebec is what it is. I can't explain things that they have or haven't done and why or why not they pursue these things. I have a hard time seeing the relevance of their policies to our current provincial election, but maybe I'm the only one.

More specifically to your point knalus, I see countries like Venezuela in particular as a huge problem for Alberta. The oil is cheaper and easier there than it is here, by a long shot. We all know that the major impediment there today is Chavez, and that won't last forever. This type of concern is exactly my rational for increasing the amount of savings we make from our current revenues and not sending out cheques to every man, woman and child for $300+ each. Its foolish, short sighted and when the oil is worth less or the revenue stream is not maintainable we'll all feel stupid for having done this.

I'll remind you that the ONLY province to default was Alberta in 1936. The province was definitely a have not until we hit oil; that's awesome for us today and over the next while and we should be thankful for this bounty. One day that will be gone though (and we all know that) so to fritter it away today is just plain irresponsible and foolish. Why this isn't a bigger issue in this election (or any other) is really beyond me.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by redforever

Quebec's hydro cost to its consumers is half that of Ontario. Why?

I have no idea. More efficient?

In any event, the real point of this discussion was that Smith was basing her criticisms of equalization transfers on the fact that Quebec has such and such social programs, not on the fact that Quebec is allegedly cheating the system by selling off its resources at below market rates. So she isn't even proposing to address the issues which you are identifying.