2011/12 Toronto Blue Jays Off-Season

[Otsy]

30 saves, low WHIP and rarely gives up home runs and wasn't the full time closer to start the year. Cheap option too then buying a closer on the market that doesn't exist. I like the move. Start fixing the bullpen now, and he's only 28, could be a closer for a long time.

Nestor Molina is a great prospect, but no guarantees he makes the jump successfully. Could turn out better for sox, but maybe we win. Won't know till he starts pitching in the bigs.

[Caged Great]

Also, after the 3 years 8.25 mil, he's got 3 option years at 6, 8 and 8.75 mil so if he maintains his play, we might have the closer position locked up for relatively cheap for the next 6 years

[cross16]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Actually this is a pretty good trade after the initial shock of it.

We have a decent closer for the next three years at a combined cost of 8.25 (less than 3 per) instead of spending 8-9 mil to get someone like Madson.

Also, Molina only throws at 91 MPH so unless he has great command, at best he's going to be a back of the rotation guy.

That also frees us up to spend the 6 or so mil savings elsewhere.

I'm with you. My intial reaction was dissapointment but this makes alot of sense.
I find too the reports on Molina are very split. Some think he has the makings of a great starter, but alot think he may even have trouble being more than a 5. To me this means that they thought Molina was in fact headed towards a career in the bullpen so they traded a future bullpen guy for someone who can help now.

I like Santos contract alot so IMO this is a good deal for the Jays. Having a guy that should be able to effectively close games for less than 3 mill is a steal IMO.

[zukes]

I like the move. Santos struck dudes out at an alarming rate 13.1 per 9. That is great. He is cheap, and while Molina has been touted as a top prospect, it has only been for the last year. He was a nobody prior to this year. Molina, like Santos, is a converted position player so the Jays at worst just sped up the clock on waiting out a converted position player.

Jays have a ned for a closer now, Molina doesn't have the gas to be a full time closer, and while he may end up a starter in the bigs, we have a ton fo SP prospects.

I like it.

edit: and that contract, WOW!!! If he does the closer job, we have the best closer per $ in the MLB.

[flambers]

Okay, Jays have their closer and backup catcher..... next on the list;

-- Starter (#2 guy is required)
-- 2nd Baseman (would guess that will be done on Wednesday)

[JayP]

The Jays clearly must feel that Molina's tools don't match up with his numbers. This has been brought up on some of the recent scouting reports on him.

I've heard a lot about of Molina's delivery makes him destined for the bullpen. I think that factors into the trade. If the Jays think he is too wonky to be a starter and have to move him to pen, I'm sure they'd be very happy with him turning into a Santos type eventually.

[ricoFlame]

This is why you have prospects, making deals like this.

Even if Molina gets good, Santos is a proven guy at this level.

Love the contract too.

[Gozer]

Never even really heard of this guy. WHIP of 1.1 last season is pleasing to the eye.

Anyone watched him pitch? Any description / comparables?

[St. Pats]

AA said in the post trade interview that it was the 6 years that makes the deal doable. Yes it's a young prospect but this guy ain't old and is under contract for six years.

Plus this is the depth in the organization. They have multiple pitching prospects.

[Sylvanfan]

Intriguing player as he's only been pitching professionally since 2009. He did up his strikeouts a lot last year from 2010, and the hits were down a fair bit.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Never even really heard of this guy. WHIP of 1.1 last season is pleasing to the eye.

Anyone watched him pitch? Any description / comparables?

If you can picture Jose Valverde and his typical 9th inning saves - that is Sergio Santos. Never a clean 9th it seemed, as I listen to a pile of Sox baseball on XM. Lost his job a few times to Thornton/Sale, only to get it back - due to the both of them being worse.

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Intriguing player as he's only been pitching professionally since 2009. He did up his strikeouts a lot last year from 2010, and the hits were down a fair bit.

Not a lot of wear on his arm then. I guess he is quite an athlete to be able to do such a switch. AA loves players who are athletic and versatile.

[NoCupsIn40Years]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

This doesn't make much sense to me at all. While it's good that we now have a closer that's relatively cheap, that's a hefty price to pay.

Molina is a redundant asset for the Jays, there are just so many guys ahead of him. I like the gamble and Santos did show promise with his alarming strikeout rate and great WHIP. He's signed for 4 years at around 2-3 mil per, which is a bargain compared to what Papelbon got and what Madson will get.

Here is a good article to read:

One last point about the trade itself. As good as Santos’ contract seems, $30 million over six years would only provide great surplus value if he continues to average 1.6 WAR per season for the next six years. He’s only 28 years old, but the fact remains that only four closers — J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon — have averaged 1.6+ WAR over the past six years. Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, Rafael Betancourt and Jonathan Broxton have all managed over 1.5 WAR, and with Santos’ strikeout rate he could join the group.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...build-process/

[Caged Great]

I know, it was just my immediate reaction. After delving deeper, it's a huge win by AA again.

[dustyanddaflames]

With C.G. - as I was pretty skeptical on the deal when I first heard, but if you're able to land a missing peice to the puzzle by using a prospect from a deep farm system - you can't go wrong. Still worried about Santos as closer, but it may just be a bump in learning the closer role.

Nice addition - will see immediate dividends, but won't judge the trade until Santos shows he can sustain what he did last year.

[Otsy]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I know, it was just my immediate reaction. After delving deeper, it's a huge win by AA again.

Huge win will be determined by what Molina turns into. But I think it's a great move. Got a young, cheap closer that could be around awhile.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by NoCupsIn40Years

Molina is a redundant asset for the Jays, there are just so many guys ahead of him. I like the gamble and Santos did show promise with his alarming strikeout rate and great WHIP. He's signed for 4 years at around 2-3 mil per, which is a bargain compared to what Papelbon got and what Madson will get.

Here is a good article to read:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...build-process/

The problem with that article (and that's coming from a huge supporter of Fangraphs) is that it only deals with WAR and the standard $5mil/WAR that is the going rate in the free agent market. As we've seen, relievers are clearly getting over-priced based on what WAR estimates their contributions are. Now, it might be that WAR is out of whack or that teams are just flat out wrong, but that's irrelevant. What is relevant is that the market for relievers is clearly different than that of everyone else on the field.

In comparison to other relievers salaries, Santos is more than a steal. If teams were to build their bullpen solely upon value deals based on WAR it'd be impossible. The only way to acquire a reliever then would be from within and that's not always feasible when you're trying to set yourself up to succeed immediately.

[The Big Chill]

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2011/1...south-side-sox

Link says Santos has one of the best fastball-slider combos in the MLB. Only concern is consistency and durability. Not durability in the injury sense, but apparently he faltered more often when his yearly innings count got higher.

Sounds like he has nasty stuff and could be a great closer if Farrell can get the most out of him.

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

As I said before, I'm completely ok if Fielder isn't the guy we are targeting. A guy like Ortiz could likely be had for similar dollars per year but on a 2 or 3 year contract. That would not cripple us in any way but would give us that big bat for the 4 spot.

Not sure if we need a big bat like Fielder especially with Scott Boras -the prince of darkness-as his agent. He would probably command Vernon Wells type of pay or more. Why can't we assume that Brett Lawrie could be that next big bat for us. He certainly has more speed and was coming along last yr. If they are going to spend that type of money, why not trade for a pitcher in #2 rotation.

I don't think Drabek, Cecil and or Alvarez are ready for that #2 slot-certainly not Drabek yet (who should be #1 in a few years if he ever gets consistent). IMO, Alvarez has a strong potential to be battling for #1a in 2 yrs. I am more excited about him than anyone in our rotation-he's got much mental toughness, velocity and movement. Heck, next year the #2 slot could be McGowan's to take if he stays healthy. He had awesome stuff with late movements last year albeit few short innings but his velocity is up there in the 96-97 mph (98-100mph before injuries).

If we are going to spend big bucks to improve, I would go for a pitcher first before I get a big bat. Here is a stretch, why not try for a Darvish. He was rated as the top 2-3 pitcher in the world not playing in the MLB a year ago and still is. In one of my posts last year, I described what I saw while I was in Sapporo (visiting my wife's family) and watching him pitched for the Nippon Ham Fighters. It is not a big a gamble as the other Japanese pitchers posted and signed, I think.

I am not a scout but IMO Darvish reminds me of a Randy Johnson. He has few more repitoire than Johnson. His tall and lanky body allows him to really whip his body into his full stretch- extension. He throws a lot of strikes. So far there is no elbow issues due to his arm being inverted as a "J" before bringing it overhead-kind of odd mechanics (?). Boston and Yankees are perhaps a little leery of posting such big money given their not so good luck with the Japanese pitchers. Although Matsuzaka is not a bust as some have claimed.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by VERVE

Not sure if we need a big bat like Fielder especially with Scott Boras -the prince of darkness-as his agent. He would probably command Vernon Wells type of pay or more. Why can't we assume that Brett Lawrie could be that next big bat for us. He certainly has more speed and was coming along last yr. If they are going to spend that type of money, why not trade for a pitcher in #2 rotation.

I don't think Drabek, Cecil and or Alvarez are ready for that #2 slot-certainly not Drabek yet (who should be #1 in a few years if he ever gets consistent). IMO, Alvarez has a strong potential to be battling for #1a in 2 yrs. I am more excited about him than anyone in our rotation-he's got much mental toughness, velocity and movement. Heck, next year the #2 slot could be McGowan's to take if he stays healthy. He had awesome stuff with late movements last year albeit few short innings but his velocity is up there in the 96-97 mph (98-100mph before injuries).

If we are going to spend big bucks to improve, I would go for a pitcher first before I get a big bat. Here is a stretch, why not try for a Darvish. He was rated as the top 2-3 pitcher in the world not playing in the MLB a year ago and still is. In one of my posts last year, I described what I saw while I was in Sapporo (visiting my wife's family) and watching him pitched for the Nippon Ham Fighters. It is not a big a gamble as the other Japanese pitchers posted and signed, I think.

I am not a scout but IMO Darvish reminds me of a Randy Johnson. He has few more repitoire than Johnson. His tall and lanky body allows him to really whip his body into his full stretch- extension. He throws a lot of strikes. So far there is no elbow issues due to his arm being inverted as a "J" before bringing it overhead-kind of odd mechanics (?). Boston and Yankees are perhaps a little leery of posting such big money given their not so good luck with the Japanese pitchers. Although Matsuzaka is not a bust as some have claimed.

I'm a big fan of Lawrie, however I don't think it is smart to depend on him to be a major bat in our lineup next season. I've seen way too many players do well as rookies and follow up with a sub-par season. He still has to be considered somewhat of an unknown at this point, at least until he puts another solid season or two together.

I read somewhere (I can't remember where but I'll try to find it) that the Jays are likely to bid for Darvish, they just aren't likely to be the highest bid. So who knows what will happen there. It may depend on if we can acquire a starter via trade before/if Darvish gets posted.